Iran: Comprehensive Crisis and Risk of Collapse under Theocratic Rule

Today's Iran is no longer grappling with localized social tensions but is mired in a comprehensive crisis spanning the economy, society, politics, and foreign affairs. From the waves of protests on the streets of Tehran to the complete collapse of its monetary system, from the shaking of its theocratic stronghold to the intertwined games of international powers, this nation with a history of four decades of theocratic rule now stands at a crossroads of destiny. The evolution of its situation not only concerns the well-being of its own people but will also profoundly impact global geopolitics and the energy landscape.

I. Economic Collapse: From Currency Halving to Survival Crisis

The core of Iran's crisis originates from the complete loss of control over its economic system, with currency devaluation and hyperinflation serving as the most direct manifestations, pushing ordinary people to the brink of survival.

The cliff-like collapse of the monetary system.

The depreciation rate of Iran's official currency, the Rial, is astonishing. Before the Islamic Revolution in 1979, the exchange rate was approximately 7 Rials to 1 US dollar. By early 2026, data from Tehran's black market showed that 1 US dollar could be exchanged for 1.4 million Rials. Particularly devastating was the period from mid-2025 to early 2026, where in just half a year, the exchange rate plummeted from 75,000 Rials to 1 US dollar to 1.4 million Rials to 1 US dollar. This means the value of Iran's sovereign currency was halved within six months, and the purchasing power of ordinary households' wealth instantly evaporated by half. The depreciation rate of Iran's official currency, the Rial, is astonishing. Before the Islamic Revolution in 1979, the exchange rate was approximately 7 Rials to 1 US dollar. By early 2026, data from Tehran's black market showed that 1 US dollar could be exchanged for 1.4 million Rials. Particularly devastating was the period from mid-2025 to early 2026, where in just half a year, the exchange rate plummeted from 75,000 Rials to 1 US dollar to 1.4 million Rials to 1 US dollar. This means the value of Iran's sovereign currency was halved within six months, and the purchasing power of ordinary households' wealth instantly evaporated by half.

The currency collapse directly leads to a sharp decline in people's purchasing power. In Tehran, the monthly salary of an average worker is about 100 million rials, which is equivalent to only 70 US dollars at the black market exchange rate; while the price of 1 kilogram of red meat is as high as 20-25 million rials (approximately 15-18 US dollars). This means an ordinary family spending nearly a quarter of their monthly salary to buy 1 kilogram of meat. Even more extreme, against the backdrop of a minimum monthly wage of only 80 million rials, the price of a bag of rice has soared to 17 million rials. An adult working hard for a month can only buy about 40 jin of rice to sustain basic survival. The currency collapse directly leads to a sharp decline in people's purchasing power. In Tehran, the monthly salary of an average worker is about 100 million rials, which is equivalent to only 70 US dollars at the black market exchange rate; while the price of 1 kilogram of red meat is as high as 20-25 million rials (approximately 15-18 US dollars). This means an ordinary family spending nearly a quarter of their monthly salary to buy 1 kilogram of meat. Even more extreme, against the backdrop of a minimum monthly wage of only 80 million rials, the price of a bag of rice has soared to 17 million rials. An adult working hard for a month can only buy about 40 jin of rice to sustain basic survival.

The vicious cycle of hyperinflation and economic stagnation.

Behind the currency devaluation lies the rampant spread of hyperinflation. Within just a few months, food prices in Iran surged by 72%, drug prices increased by 50%, and the officially announced inflation rate reached 42.2%, while the public's perceived pain index was far higher than these figures. The intensification of inflation directly triggered a commercial standstill. Tehran's famous Grand Bazaar witnessed a rare market shutdown, as merchants were unable to operate normally due to excessively rapid exchange rate fluctuations (with a selling price of 50,000 in the morning and costs rising to 80,000 by the afternoon), forcing them to close their businesses. Behind the currency devaluation lies the rampant spread of hyperinflation. Within just a few months, food prices in Iran surged by 72%, drug prices increased by 50%, and the officially announced inflation rate reached 42.2%, while the public's perceived pain index was far higher than these figures. The intensification of inflation directly triggered a commercial standstill. Tehran's famous Grand Bazaar witnessed a rare market shutdown, as merchants were unable to operate normally due to excessively rapid exchange rate fluctuations (with a selling price of 50,000 in the morning and costs rising to 80,000 by the afternoon), forcing them to close their businesses.

The economic collapse further intensified social division. Ordinary people had to scavenge for food in garbage dumps to survive, while the privileged class—such as the children of high-ranking officials of the Revolutionary Guards (i.e., Aghazadeh)—drove Porsches and Ferraris in the affluent northern district of Tehran, with their mansions even featuring private zoos. This extreme wealth gap completely tore apart the social contract between the people and the regime. The economic collapse further intensified social division. Ordinary people had to scavenge for food in garbage dumps to survive, while the privileged class—such as the children of high-ranking officials of the Revolutionary Guards (i.e., Aghazadeh)—drove Porsches and Ferraris in the affluent northern district of Tehran, with their mansions even featuring private zoos. This extreme wealth gap completely tore apart the social contract between the people and the regime.

II. Root of the Crisis: The Dual Strangulation of External Sanctions and Internal Mismanagement

The comprehensive collapse of Iran's economy is not caused by a single factor, but rather by the combined effects of escalating external sanctions and internal policy failures, as well as structural deficiencies, creating a dual stranglehold that is difficult to break.

External Trigger: The Comprehensive Blockade of International Sanctions

In September 2025, the United Nations reactivated the "Snapback" mechanism, imposing comprehensive and severe international sanctions on Iran. The core of these sanctions is the complete blockade of Iran's financial settlement and oil export channels, preventing it from conducting normal transactions through global banks and transport insurance companies. For Iran, which is highly dependent on oil exports, this is undoubtedly a devastating blow. In September 2025, the United Nations reactivated the "Snapback" mechanism, imposing comprehensive and severe international sanctions on Iran. The core of these sanctions is the complete blockade of Iran's financial settlement and oil export channels, preventing it from conducting normal transactions through global banks and transport insurance companies. For Iran, which is highly dependent on oil exports, this is undoubtedly a devastating blow.

Previously, Iran had circumvented sanctions by covertly shipping oil through a "ghost fleet" composed of old, decommissioned vessels. However, as the global oil market shifted to a buyer's market, oversupply allowed buyers to drive down prices. Some buyers even halted purchases due to dissatisfaction with Iran's geopolitical stance, leading to the complete failure of the "shadow fleet" evasion strategy. The sharp decline in oil revenue directly severed Iran's primary channel for obtaining foreign exchange.

More critically, after former U.S. President Donald Trump returned to the White House, he adopted an unprecedentedly severe strategy of containment and blockade against Iran, further constricting Iran's fiscal maneuvering room. The U.S. State Department explicitly stated that it would continue to intensify sanctions until Iran changes its behavior, leaving the Iranian government with almost no external channels to alleviate the hardships faced by its people.

Internal Fatal Flaws: Structural Deficiencies and Policy Missteps

The intensification of external sanctions has exposed the long-standing structural flaws in Iran's economy. Compared to Russia, another major oil-producing country, Iran's economic structure is far more singular and has failed to undergo effective adjustments. Russia began actively revitalizing its agriculture around the turn of the century, enabling it to safeguard basic livelihoods even under sanctions. In contrast, Iran's agricultural economy remains fragile due to geographical constraints. Coupled with persistent internal conflicts between conservatives and pro-Western factions, as well as excessive focus on Middle Eastern affairs, the country has consistently failed to improve its economic structure.

More alarmingly, Iran has developed a "peculiar import dependency model." Since its relationship with the United States broke down and sanctions were imposed in the last century, Iran's civilian economy has not reduced its reliance on imports but has instead seen a continuous increase. From food to basic daily industrial goods, a large number of essential survival items need to be imported. With the U.S. dollar serving as the primary settlement currency in global trade, importing these necessities requires substantial foreign exchange reserves. This has left Iran facing severe shortages of essential supplies as soon as its access to foreign exchange channels was cut off.

Faced with a shortage of foreign exchange and fiscal deficits, the Iranian government resorted to its most lethal countermeasure—recklessly printing money. To sustain basic expenditures such as civil servant salaries and military costs, the government issued currency without restraint, ultimately leading to uncontrollable inflation and a complete collapse of the monetary system. Meanwhile, the Iranian government had nearly a decade to adjust its economic structure, but the ruling class was preoccupied with internal power struggles and expanding its regional hegemony in the Middle East, entirely neglecting this core issue that truly concerns the nation's survival.

Core Deep-Seated Conflict: The Clash Between Nuclear Weapons and the Unspoken Rules of International Politics

Behind the international sanctions lies a fundamental conflict between Iran's nuclear ambitions and the "unspoken rules" of international politics. The United States recently made it clear that if Iran takes nuclear action, it will destroy Iran; and the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council (P5) share a highly consistent stance—firmly preventing nuclear proliferation. Nuclear weapons are regarded as the highest-level "membership card" in international politics and cannot be issued arbitrarily without the consent of the five permanent members, which is a red line that Iran cannot cross. Behind the international sanctions lies a fundamental conflict between Iran's nuclear ambitions and the "unspoken rules" of international politics. The United States recently made it clear that if Iran takes nuclear action, it will destroy Iran; and the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council (P5) share a highly consistent stance—firmly preventing nuclear proliferation. Nuclear weapons are regarded as the highest-level "membership card" in international politics and cannot be issued arbitrarily without the consent of the five permanent members, which is a red line that Iran cannot cross.

Compared to other nuclear-armed states, Iran’s path to nuclear weapons is even less feasible: Israel, as a staunch ally of the United States, adopts a policy of "nuclear ambiguity" (neither confirming nor denying possession), which is tacitly accepted by the U.S. North Korea achieved its nuclear capability at the cost of a "March of Suffering"–style famine and economic isolation from the world. Pakistan, on the other hand, acquired its nuclear technology through the clandestine network of its "father of the bomb" and its nuclear status was tacitly tolerated by major powers to balance the situation in South Asia.

Iran's national conditions determine that it cannot afford the cost of possessing nuclear weapons. On one hand, Iran is an oil-producing country with an economy highly dependent on global trade. If its settlement systems and oil exports are cut off due to nuclear ambitions, it would inevitably face dire straits. On the other hand, if Iran were to acquire nuclear weapons, it would trigger chain reactions from regional countries such as Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Egypt, leading to chaos in the Middle East and endangering the global petrodollar system—a scenario no major power wishes to see. Even Russia, which cooperates with Iran to counter the West, is reluctant to see a nuclear-armed Iran competing for energy market share or an uncontrollable nuclear power emerging in its traditional sphere of influence in the Middle East and Central Asia. As a result, Russia has always held back in its military assistance to Iran, such as in the provision of air defense systems.

III. Social Unrest: From Escalating Protests to Shaken Foundations of Regime

The economic collapse directly triggered the disintegration of social order, with protests spreading from local areas to the entire nation and escalating from moderate demands to calls for regime change, shaking the very foundations of the theocratic rule.

The fundamental shift in the nature of protests: from pursuing freedom to fighting for survival.

The current protests in Iran are no longer a simple continuation of the "headscarf protests" from previous years, nor are they solely driven by university students' pursuit of freedom. Instead, they have evolved into a nationwide protest over a survival crisis. The main participants taking to the streets are now the working class and the middle class, fighting to make ends meet. In the industrial hub of Isfahan, the protesters' slogans have shifted dramatically from the "calls for reform" of a few years ago to **"This year is the year of bloodshed, and the regime of Ali Khamenei will surely fall."** This marks a complete breakdown of trust between the people and the authorities.

Unlike previous peaceful demonstrations, the current protests have shown a clear tendency towards escalating violence, with frequent occurrences such as attacks on government buildings, burning portraits of religious leaders, and seizing weapons in some areas. "The sense of fear is fading away" has become a prominent feature of Iranian society today. When people feel they have nothing left to lose, they become fearless, and the intensity of the protests continues to escalate accordingly.

The Fall of the Divine Fortress: Protest Waves in the Holy City

Qom, as a holy city for the Shia, is home to senior clerics and serves as the spiritual fortress of Iran’s theocracy. For years, it has been regarded as the regime’s most solid stronghold. However, large-scale protests have now erupted on the streets of Qom, with demonstrators chanting **"clerics, get lost"** and pro-monarchy slogans in front of seminaries. When the theocratic rule is rejected by the people in its core stronghold, it signifies that the foundation of its legitimacy has been completely hollowed out.

The Shake-up of the Coercive Apparatus: Signs of Defection Emerge

政权的稳定，离不开强力部门的支撑，但当前伊朗的基层执法力量已出现动摇。在库赫达什特（Kuhdasht），当地警察和安全部队在面对示威人群时，Refusing to carry out the order to open fire, and even some law enforcement officers retreated.。基层执法人员之所以出现忠诚度动摇，核心原因在于他们也是经济崩溃的受害者，微薄的工资无法养家糊口，自然难以再全力维护政权。

To fill the loyalty gap within the internal security forces, Iranian authorities have begun mobilizing non-local armed forces, even Shiite militias from abroad, to carry out suppression. This method of "using external armed forces to suppress local populations" not only fails to fundamentally quell the protests but further intensifies ethnic conflicts, pushing the situation into a more uncontrollable state.

The shift in public sentiment: nostalgia for the former dynasty and despair over the current situation.

Amid the protest crowds, chants of **"Reza Pahlavi ( ) returns"** have emerged. Reza Pahlavi is the son of Iran's last monarch and currently lives in exile abroad. The appearance of such calls does not necessarily mean that the people fully understand or yearn to return to the pre-revolutionary system of over four decades ago; rather, it reflects a projection of despair toward the current situation. People have begun to reminisce about the era before the revolution, when Iran was one of the wealthiest and most open countries in the Middle East. By idealizing the past to negate the present, they are expressing the most profound rejection of the existing theocratic republican system.

History is repeating itself in a striking manner. Before the Islamic Revolution erupted in 1979, the Pahlavi dynasty was losing support from the middle and lower classes due to widening wealth gaps, political corruption, and the suppression of dissent. Today, decades later, the Islamic Republic faces nearly identical accusations—privileges for a select few, systemic corruption, and indifference to the suffering of the majority. This cycle of history further undermines the legitimacy of the regime.

IV. International Gameplay: The Interweaving and Contest of Multiple Forces

Iran's internal crisis has become a focal point in the global geopolitical game. Major powers and regional players such as Russia, the United States, and Israel have all intervened, with the struggles among various forces further complicating the already turbulent situation in Iran, creating a powder keg interwoven with multiple parties.

Russia's Emergency Blood Transfusion: Support Under the Bond of Interests

Russia and Iran have deep-seated intertwined interests, with the most critical being the Drone Technology Supply Chain – Iran's drones are crucial to Russia's operations on the battlefield in Ukraine.. If the current Iranian regime collapses, Russia's supply chain in the Ukrainian battlefield will be severely impacted. Therefore, as Iran's situation becomes precarious, Russia has chosen to urgently step in with support. Russia and Iran have deep-seated intertwined interests, with the most critical being the Drone Technology Supply Chain – Iran's drones are crucial to Russia's operations on the battlefield in Ukraine.. If the current Iranian regime collapses, Russia's supply chain in the Ukrainian battlefield will be severely impacted. Therefore, as Iran's situation becomes precarious, Russia has chosen to urgently step in with support.

Based on flight tracking and satellite imagery, during the critical period of escalating tensions in Iran, heavy transport aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces frequently landed at Iranian air force bases, conducting high-density airlift operations. External speculation suggests that the supplies transported by Russia may include riot control equipment for suppressing unrest, as well as electronic warfare systems and air defense components for defending against potential airstrikes from Israel or the United States. Russia’s emergency support has provided the current Iranian regime with temporary breathing space but has also further tied Iran to its own strategic agenda.

Pressure from the United States and Israel: Dual Pressure of Sanctions and Military Threats

The United States and Israel stand on the opposite side of Iran's current regime, continuously applying high pressure. The core approach of the United States is to strengthen sanctions, comprehensively block financial and oil channels, compress Iran's fiscal space, and prevent the Iranian government from quelling protests by improving people's livelihoods. Israel's approach is more direct—military threats.Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has clearly warned that follow-up strikes on Iran's ballistic missile infrastructure are not ruled out.. The United States and Israel stand on the opposite side of Iran's current regime, continuously applying high pressure. The core approach of the United States is to strengthen sanctions, comprehensively block financial and oil channels, compress Iran's fiscal space, and prevent the Iranian government from quelling protests by improving people's livelihoods. Israel's approach is more direct—military threats.Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has clearly warned that follow-up strikes on Iran's ballistic missile infrastructure are not ruled out..

Amid Iran's internal turmoil, external military strikes could serve as "the straw that breaks the camel's back," completely ending the current regime. On the other hand, such external threats could also be exploited by Tehran authorities to divert internal conflicts by inciting nationalist sentiments, temporarily uniting public support. The United States might also leverage satellite technology to provide Iranian citizens with uncensored internet access, enhancing protesters' organizational capabilities and international visibility, further exacerbating Iran's internal instability.

V. Future Direction: Death Spiral and Key Observation Indicators

Present-day Iran is trapped in a **deadly spiral of "crackdown–money printing–inflation–more intense protests"**: the government needs to pay more for security measures to suppress protests, forcing it to print more money; this further fuels inflation, increasing the pressure on people's livelihoods and triggering larger-scale, more intense protests. This spiral is accelerating downward, and key indicators in the coming weeks will determine the fate of the Iranian regime.

Three key observation indicators

1. Trends of Energy Industry Workers: The oil workers' strike was the final straw that broke the back of the Pahlavi dynasty.. Iran's oil industry is the lifeline of the national treasury. If workers in key energy sectors launch a large-scale strike, it will completely cut off the government's financial resources. There have already been reports of sporadic strikes by energy industry workers. If the scale of the strikes expands, the regime will face a fatal blow. Trends of Energy Industry Workers: The oil workers' strike was the final straw that broke the back of the Pahlavi dynasty.. Iran's oil industry is the lifeline of the national treasury. If workers in key energy sectors launch a large-scale strike, it will completely cut off the government's financial resources. There have already been reports of sporadic strikes by energy industry workers. If the scale of the strikes expands, the regime will face a fatal blow.
2. The Attitude of the Regular Army: Currently, the main forces of suppression in Iran are the Basij militia and special police under the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). The stance of the historically relatively independent Iranian regular army is crucial.If the regular army declares neutrality or if there is a large-scale defection, the fate of the current Iranian regime will be sealed.. The Attitude of the Regular Army: Currently, the main forces of suppression in Iran are the Basij militia and special police under the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). The stance of the historically relatively independent Iranian regular army is crucial.If the regular army declares neutrality or if there is a large-scale defection, the fate of the current Iranian regime will be sealed..
3. Control over Communication Networks: In order to prevent protesters from coordinating, the government is extensively cutting off internet access. Whether the United States will provide alternative network access to the Iranian people via satellite technology will directly impact the organizational capabilities of the demonstrators and the level of international attention.If the public obtains stable internet support, it will be more difficult to suppress protest activities; conversely, if the government successfully cuts off all communication channels, the protests may gradually subside due to a loss of organization.. Control over Communication Networks: In order to prevent protesters from coordinating, the government is extensively cutting off internet access. Whether the United States will provide alternative network access to the Iranian people via satellite technology will directly impact the organizational capabilities of the demonstrators and the level of international attention.If the public obtains stable internet support, it will be more difficult to suppress protest activities; conversely, if the government successfully cuts off all communication channels, the protests may gradually subside due to a loss of organization..

Geostrategic impact

Regardless of the eventual direction of the Iranian situation, its turbulence will affect the entire Middle East and even the globe. First, The security of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz may not be guaranteed—the Strait of Hormuz is a crucial global oil transportation route, with approximately one-third of the world's seaborne oil passing through it.. Once its security is compromised, it will directly trigger a global energy crisis. Second, global oil prices will face severe fluctuations, impacting the economic stability of major industrial nations. Finally, the situation in Iran will reshape the balance of power in the Middle East, and no major power will be able to stay aloof. Regardless of the eventual direction of the Iranian situation, its turbulence will affect the entire Middle East and even the globe. First, The security of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz may not be guaranteed—the Strait of Hormuz is a crucial global oil transportation route, with approximately one-third of the world's seaborne oil passing through it.. Once its security is compromised, it will directly trigger a global energy crisis. Second, global oil prices will face severe fluctuations, impacting the economic stability of major industrial nations. Finally, the situation in Iran will reshape the balance of power in the Middle East, and no major power will be able to stay aloof.

VI. Conclusion: The Twilight of Theocracy and an Uncertain Future

In early 2026, Iran is at the twilight moment of its theocratic rule.The complete economic collapse has triggered a nationwide survival crisis, with social unrest spreading from the margins to the core, and the legitimacy of the theocratic rule has been fundamentally shaken. The dual stranglehold of external sanctions and internal policy failures has plunged Iran into an inescapable death spiral. The intertwined maneuvers of international powers have further intensified the complexity and uncertainty of the situation.. In early 2026, Iran is at the twilight moment of its theocratic rule.The complete economic collapse has triggered a nationwide survival crisis, with social unrest spreading from the margins to the core, and the legitimacy of the theocratic rule has been fundamentally shaken. The dual stranglehold of external sanctions and internal policy failures has plunged Iran into an inescapable death spiral. The intertwined maneuvers of international powers have further intensified the complexity and uncertainty of the situation..

The future of Iran is being written by the survival struggles of countless individuals and the interplay of multiple forces. Will the current regime barely sustain itself through high-pressure suppression and external support, or will it come to an end amid waves of public protest? Will it descend into prolonged civil strife and division, or will new changes emerge after the turmoil? Regardless of the outcome, this crisis has profoundly altered Iran's national trajectory and will leave a heavy mark on the history of global geopolitics. For the Iranian people, What they desire is nothing more than basic survival guarantees and dignity, which lies at the heart of the current turbulent situation and is also key to whether Iran can achieve stability in the future.. The future of Iran is being written by the survival struggles of countless individuals and the interplay of multiple forces. Will the current regime barely sustain itself through high-pressure suppression and external support, or will it come to an end amid waves of public protest? Will it descend into prolonged civil strife and division, or will new changes emerge after the turmoil? Regardless of the outcome, this crisis has profoundly altered Iran's national trajectory and will leave a heavy mark on the history of global geopolitics. For the Iranian people, What they desire is nothing more than basic survival guarantees and dignity, which lies at the heart of the current turbulent situation and is also key to whether Iran can achieve stability in the future..