Limited reopening of Rafah crossing: Gaza population movement resumes as second phase of ceasefire agreement begins.

On January 30, 2026, the Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories (COGAT) under the Israeli Ministry of Defense announced through a brief statement that starting Sunday, February 1, the Rafah border crossing between the Gaza Strip and Egypt would be reopened, allowing limited movement restricted to personnel only. This critical passage, which had been under Israeli military control since May 2024 and nearly completely closed for almost two years, finally saw a slight easing after the last remains of an Israeli hostage were recovered on January 26. According to the arrangement, a maximum of 150 people are permitted to leave daily, including 50 medical evacuation patients, each accompanied by up to two family members, while allowing up to 50 residents who left Gaza during the war to return. The crossing's operation will be conducted with coordination from Egypt, prior security screening by Israel, and under the supervision of the European Union Border Assistance Mission. This is not merely about opening a door; it is a crucial test for the second phase of the Gaza ceasefire agreement mediated by former U.S. President Trump, intertwined with humanitarian needs, security anxieties, and geopolitical maneuvering.

The direct impetus and stringent conditions for the reopening of ports.

The reopening of the Rafah crossing is by no means an unconditional humanitarian concession, but rather the result of a series of strict prerequisites. The most direct catalyst was the recovery and identification of the remains of the last hostage—24-year-old Israeli police officer Ran Gevili—by the Israeli military in a cemetery in northern Gaza on January 26. According to the first-phase ceasefire agreement that took effect on October 10, 2025, the release or return of all Israeli and foreign hostages (whether alive or deceased) held by Hamas and its allies is a core provision. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and his security cabinet have repeatedly made it clear that the Rafah crossing would not be considered for reopening until the issue of all hostages is resolved. The return of Gevili's remains marks the removal of this political obstacle.

However, the definition of limited opening is extremely stringent. According to COGAT's statement, all passers must undergo triple screening: first, prior security review and approval by Israel; at the crossing site, initial identification and filtering by EU Border Assistance Mission personnel; and finally, additional screening and identity verification procedures by Israeli authorities in an adjacent dedicated corridor still under the control of the Israel Defense Forces. This "corridor within a corridor" design ensures that Israel holds absolute veto power over the final right of passage. Eligibility for passage is also strictly limited: departure priority is given to patients in urgent need of external medical treatment, with data from the Gaza health department indicating that approximately 20,000 sick and injured individuals require treatment abroad; entry is restricted only to residents who left Gaza during the war, meaning that a large number of Gazans who were living overseas before the conflict broke out are still unable to return home via this route.

On the Egyptian side, Governor Khaled Mujawir of North Sinai Province stated that preparations are 100% complete, with dozens of ambulances already assembled on the Egyptian side and local hospitals on high alert. However, Egypt's stance is clear: only those who have received security clearance from Israel are allowed to enter Egypt. This coordination mechanism, which places the full responsibility for security on Israel in advance, reflects Egypt's deep concerns about border control and domestic stability. Analysts point out that this highly restricted, multi-layered checkpoint model is less about openness and more of a symbolic response to international pressure and humanitarian appeals, without relinquishing substantive control.

The fragile start and core contradictions of the second phase of the ceasefire agreement.

The limited reopening of the Rafah crossing is widely seen as the first concrete step into the second phase of the U.S.-led Gaza ceasefire agreement. Endorsed by the United Nations Security Council in November 2025, the second phase of the agreement is far more complex than merely reopening a crossing. It primarily includes: the disarmament of Hamas, the gradual withdrawal of Israeli forces from most areas of Gaza, the establishment of an alternative government to manage daily affairs and oversee reconstruction, and the deployment of an international stabilization force. Currently, even the first step alone is fraught with uncertainty.

Netanyahu reiterated on the eve of the reopening of the crossing that Israel's current focus is on disarming Hamas and destroying its remaining tunnels. He bluntly stated that without these steps, there would be no reconstruction in Gaza. This effectively links the process of reopening the Rafah crossing and the overall reconstruction of Gaza directly to a political condition that Hamas is almost impossible to fully accept. Controlling the military corridor on the Israeli side of the Gaza crossing has become a key leverage point for Israel to exert pressure. On January 29, when discussing Hamas, Trump said that many people claimed they would never disarm, but it appears they are about to do so. However, Hamas has yet to publicly respond to this, and the two sides have fundamental differences in the definition, procedures, and monitoring mechanisms of disarmament.

At the same time, the National Committee for Gaza Administration, composed of 15 technocrats, is expected to enter Gaza via the Rafah crossing to oversee daily administrative management during the transition period. This committee will operate under the supervision of the Peace Commission chaired by Trump. This marks the beginning of the implementation of a governance structure attempting to bypass Hamas and the Palestinian National Authority, but whether it can gain recognition within Gaza and function effectively under Israel's ongoing security operations remains a significant question.

The more severe challenge lies in the fact that despite the ceasefire agreement, low-intensity conflicts have never truly ceased. The Gaza Health Ministry reported that from the ceasefire taking effect in October 2025 to the end of January 2026, over 500 more Palestinians were killed in Israeli military operations. Just one day before the announcement of the crossing's reopening, on Saturday, January 29, an Israeli airstrike resulted in the deaths of at least 29 Palestinians; in the early hours of Friday, January 30, the Israeli military launched an airstrike in the Rafah area, claiming to have killed 3 terrorists emerging from underground infrastructure and is pursuing another 5 accomplices. Hamas accused Israel of using this as a flimsy excuse for horrific massacres targeting civilians. Both Cairo and Doha strongly condemned these repeated Israeli violations of the ceasefire. This norm of fighting while talking has greatly eroded the already fragile mutual trust, casting a shadow over the more complex second phase of negotiations.

The vast gap between the reality of the humanitarian crisis and the limited access.

For the over 2 million residents of Gaza, the reopening of the Rafah crossing offers a faint glimmer of hope, yet a deep chasm lies between this light and their actual needs. After more than two years of war, Gaza's healthcare system has been destroyed, complex surgeries cannot be performed, and there is a severe shortage of medicines and medical equipment. Du'a Bassem Masri, a 26-year-old pharmacist from Beit Hanoun, hopes the opening of the crossing will allow medical aid, medicines, and proper shelter equipment to enter the area to alleviate the suffering. Muhammad Shamia, a 33-year-old kidney patient in urgent need of treatment abroad, told AFP: Every minute spent waiting, each passing day takes away a part of my life.

However, the daily quota of 50 medical evacuation patients is merely a drop in the bucket compared to the waiting list of 20,000 people. At this rate, even with uninterrupted operation, it would take over a year to process the existing cases, while new casualties emerge every day. UN Deputy Spokesperson Farhan Haq had hoped the crossing could be opened to goods, which is crucial for increasing the volume of humanitarian supplies entering Gaza. However, the current reopening explicitly excludes cargo passage, and the entry of humanitarian supplies still relies on other border crossings with Israel, which have limited capacity and cumbersome procedures.

Living conditions are equally dire. Hundreds of thousands of families spent the first phase of the ceasefire in temporary tents, with winter rainstorms flooding the camps. 18-year-old Safa Al-Hawajri, displaced from northern Gaza to Deir al-Balah in the central region, said: "I received a scholarship abroad and now I am eagerly waiting for the border crossing to open... hoping to fulfill my aspirations." However, the daily quota of 50 returnees means a long wait for the tens of thousands of displaced people yearning to return home.

Deeper shadows come from the confirmation of casualty figures. On January 30, 2026, Israeli media cited senior military officials reporting that the Israeli military has accepted that approximately 70,000 Palestinians have died in the Gaza war. This number largely aligns with the Gaza Health Ministry, controlled by Hamas, which reported over 71,000 deaths. Israel had previously questioned the reliability of the ministry's data, but officials now state they are working to distinguish between combatants and civilians. Regardless of the final count, the immense population trauma and the complete destruction of infrastructure mean that Gaza's reconstruction will require a generation or even longer. Limited movement of people cannot resolve the fundamental crisis of survival and development.

Rafah in the Geopolitical Chessboard: Control and Future Gameplay

The Rafah Crossing has never been merely a border checkpoint. It is the only land route connecting Gaza to the outside world without passing through Israel, thus holding unique political and symbolic significance. In May 2024, Israel seized and closed the crossing on the grounds of preventing Hamas from smuggling weapons across the border, bringing it under military control—an important strategic objective in the war itself. Now, although it has been conditionally reopened, control over it has not been relaxed in the slightest.

Geographically, the Israeli military still controls the corridor adjacent to the Gaza side of the crossing, and all passersby must undergo additional screening in this Israeli-controlled area. This means that while Israel allows movement through Egypt, it firmly holds the final valve for entry into and exit from Gaza. This arrangement ensures that Israel possesses a strong bargaining chip in subsequent negotiations, particularly on core issues such as Hamas disarmament and future security arrangements in Gaza. Netanyahu's remarks linking the reopening of the crossing to disarmament have clearly demonstrated this point.

For Egypt, the stability and control of the Rafah crossing are crucial to the security of the Sinai Peninsula. Egypt aims to play a key role as a mediator and gateway manager but is determined to prevent the border from becoming a security loophole or an entry point for refugee pressure. The monitoring role of the EU Border Assistance Mission reflects the international community's expectation for establishing a credible border management mechanism. However, its authority is limited to supervising procedures and cannot challenge the final decision-making power of Israel or Egypt.

For the United States, pushing for the reopening of the Rafah crossing is a necessary measure to maintain the momentum of the ceasefire agreement and demonstrate diplomatic achievements. The Trump administration hopes to use this as an opportunity to advance the more challenging second phase of negotiations. However, in the absence of effective mechanisms to constrain sporadic clashes between the two sides and with core disputes remaining unresolved, this limited opening appears more like a fragile experiment. Its success or failure will directly indicate the difficulty level of the entire Gaza peace process.

Amidst the ruins of Gaza, a door is cautiously pushed open just a crack. The world beyond the door is filled with uncertainty, while those inside gaze out with longing. This daily flow of 150 people carries the hope of life, yet also reflects the harshness of political reality. The story of the Rafah crossing is far from over—it has merely entered the next, more complex and challenging chapter.