Breaking the Deadlock and Rising: Bin Salman Leads Saudi Arabia's Power Reshaping and Geopolitical Breakthrough

Since King Salman of Saudi Arabia ascended to the throne in 2015, his son Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) has swiftly completed the transfer of power with a thunderous momentum, subsequently launching a series of radical reforms and grand strategies covering the economy, society, and foreign affairs. This trillion-dollar gamble has not only reshaped Saudi Arabia's domestic power structure but has also profoundly impacted the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East. Behind it lies Saudi Arabia's breakthrough from traditional dependency models and a re-evaluation of the global power dynamics. This article will delve into the strategic layout, successes, failures, and lessons of MBS's decade in power, unveiling the essence of authority beneath the facade of the Saudi Dream.

I. Power Transition: The Rise of MBS

Breaking the traditional beginning of power.

On January 23, 2015, King Salman of Saudi Arabia ascended to the throne, breaking the long-standing tradition of fraternal succession in the kingdom's power transfer. For the first time, he appointed his brother, Muqrin, as Crown Prince. More crucially, the King simultaneously appointed his 29-year-old son, **Mohammed bin Salman (MBS)**, as Minister of Defense. This move placed the nation's military power directly under the control of the young prince, laying a core foundation for his subsequent rise to power.

. Step-by-step concentration of power.

King Salman, only three months after his accession, removed his brother Muqrin from the position of Crown Prince on health grounds. He then officially appointed MBS as the Deputy Crown Prince and concurrently as the Chairman of the Economic and Development Affairs Council. This role granted MBS authority over almost all ministries except defense. Moreover, the newly established Economic and Development Affairs Council effectively bypassed the traditional cabinet, placing the ultimate control of the nation's economic lifelines—Saudi Aramco and the Sovereign Wealth Fund—firmly in the hands of MBS.

In the history of Saudi Arabia, the establishment of a deputy crown prince has been extremely rare and carried excessive power. This arrangement clearly indicated that the position of crown prince would eventually be fully transferred to MBS. At that time, the primary reason for not directly appointing him as crown prince was his relatively young age, requiring him to accumulate political achievements to gain support from various domestic factions.

II. Crisis and Reform: The Near-Bankrupt Land of the Nouveau Riche

. An imminent fiscal crisis

While gradually consolidating power, Saudi Arabia is facing an unprecedented fiscal crisis. The World Bank's annual report warns that without timely fiscal reforms, the country risks bankruptcy. The root causes of this crisis primarily stem from three aspects:

First, Single Revenue Structure: Oil revenue accounts for 85%-92% of Saudi Arabia's total national income. Economic development is entirely dependent on oil resources, resulting in extremely poor risk resilience. Second, Impact of Oil Price Plunge: The sharp decline in international oil prices in 2014 directly led to Saudi Arabia's fiscal deficit reaching a record $98 billion in 2015, accounting for 24% of GDP. Third, Inflexible Expenditure Structure: For a long time, Saudi Arabia has supported its 21 million citizens through a super high-welfare system to secure political compliance from the populace. Data shows that over two-thirds of Saudi employees work in the public sector (far exceeding Norway's 31.1% and Japan's 8.2%). The average monthly salary in the public sector exceeds $3,500, and half of the annual fiscal expenditure is used to directly pay salaries and benefits to citizens. First, Single Revenue Structure: Oil revenue accounts for 85%-92% of Saudi Arabia's total national income. Economic development is entirely dependent on oil resources, resulting in extremely poor risk resilience. Second, Impact of Oil Price Plunge: The sharp decline in international oil prices in 2014 directly led to Saudi Arabia's fiscal deficit reaching a record $98 billion in 2015, accounting for 24% of GDP. Third, Inflexible Expenditure Structure: For a long time, Saudi Arabia has supported its 21 million citizens through a super high-welfare system to secure political compliance from the populace. Data shows that over two-thirds of Saudi employees work in the public sector (far exceeding Norway's 31.1% and Japan's 8.2%). The average monthly salary in the public sector exceeds $3,500, and half of the annual fiscal expenditure is used to directly pay salaries and benefits to citizens.

Reform measures to save the critical situation.

Upon assuming power, MBS swiftly introduced three radical reform measures to address the crisis: First, he significantly cut almost all state subsidies while freezing some civil servant benefits; second, for the first time in Saudi Arabia's nearly tax-free history, he introduced a Value-Added Tax, gradually raising the rate from 5% to 15%; third, leveraging the subsequent recovery in international oil prices, he temporarily averted bankruptcy, buying breathing room for his grand strategic plans ahead. Upon assuming power, MBS swiftly introduced three radical reform measures to address the crisis: First, he significantly cut almost all state subsidies while freezing some civil servant benefits; second, for the first time in Saudi Arabia's nearly tax-free history, he introduced a Value-Added Tax, gradually raising the rate from 5% to 15%; third, leveraging the subsequent recovery in international oil prices, he temporarily averted bankruptcy, buying breathing room for his grand strategic plans ahead.

III. Vision: Drawing the Blueprint for the "Saudi Dream"

The blueprint for the "Saudi Dream" has been unveiled.

To achieve economic transformation and social stability, the MBS team, after more than a year of planning, officially launched the national strategy—Vision 2030. This strategy candidly acknowledges Saudi Arabia's dangerous dependence on oil, clearly proposes building a new Saudi Arabia that is high-tech and diversified, and paints a grand blueprint for the nation's future development.

Vision 2030 has gained substantial support within Saudi Arabia, particularly among young people (in 2017, over 60% of Saudi Arabia's population was under the age of 30). The reason lies in the fact that the old silent contract (high welfare in exchange for obedience) primarily benefited the older generation, while the younger population faces high unemployment rates and has not fully benefited from the traditional welfare system. Therefore, they hold high expectations for the diversified development opportunities promised by Vision 2030.

Core Project: The Ambition of Neom

Under the framework of Vision 2030, MBS announced the dream-level super future city project—NEOM. The project covers a planned area of 26,500 square kilometers and claims to be equipped with cutting-edge facilities such as flying taxis, artificial moons, and sand that glows at night. Its core highlight is The Line, a 170-kilometer-long, 500-meter-high linear city, designed to accommodate 9 million residents.

The essence of the project: the time and contract of power.

In fact, whether these spectacular construction projects can ultimately be completed is not the primary goal of MBS. Their core value lies in two aspects: first, **weaving the Saudi Dream**, by depicting a high-tech, environmentally friendly, and open lifestyle to attract the younger generation, establishing a new social contract with them, and consolidating the public support for his rule; second, **buying time**, using grand visions to divert domestic attention from the pains of reform, creating favorable conditions for MBS to reshape the domestic power structure and consolidate his personal authority.

IV. Power Purge: "Anti-Corruption" and Trillion-Yuan Financing

. Power reshuffling under the guise of anti-corruption

Just 11 days after announcing the NEOM project, MBS swiftly announced the establishment of the Supreme Anti-Corruption Committee and personally assumed its chairmanship. This committee was granted immense powers that surpass existing laws. Within mere hours, over 200 Saudi princes, government ministers, and wealthy businessmen were arrested—all at the very same hotel where MBS had previously unveiled his vision for NEOM: the Riyadh Ritz-Carlton Hotel. Overnight, this luxury hotel transformed into the world’s most opulent prison.

. The core forces to be targeted for crackdown

The arrested officials this time encompass core figures from Saudi Arabia's power and wealth circles, including: the son of the former king and commander of the National Guard, Prince Mutaib bin Abdullah; the half-brother of al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden and chairman of the Bin Laden Group, Bakr bin Laden; and the Middle East's richest man, known as the "Warren Buffett of the Middle East," and a shareholder in numerous globally renowned companies, Prince Al-Waleed bin Talal, among others.

The Dual Benefits of Cleaning.

The core logic of this anti-corruption interrogation was to choose between wealth and life, ultimately leading most detainees to exchange their freedom for surrendering substantial assets. This power purge achieved two critical outcomes: first, raising enormous funds, with assets seized through settlements exceeding 107 billion US dollars. These funds were injected into sovereign wealth funds, providing armed financing for Vision 2030 and various megaprojects; second, establishing absolute authority. By targeting core members of the royal family and old elites, MBS completely dismantled Saudi Arabia's traditional power networks and established unchallengeable personal authority. It is worth noting that the estimated number of Saudi royal family members ranges from 5,000 to 15,000. This purge made it clear to all royal family members and domestic forces who the true decision-maker is.

V. Shadow Government: Purchasing a "Corporate Cabinet"

Bypassing the power shortcuts of the old bureaucracy.

The implementation of Vision 2030 and various giga-projects is extremely complex. The inefficiency and inadequacy of Saudi Arabia's traditional bureaucratic system make it ill-suited for such tasks. This reality provided MBS with ample justification to bypass the entire traditional bureaucracy. To ensure the smooth advancement of the strategy, MBS opted to establish a shadow government directly loyal to himself by procuring services.

"Outsourced Governance" by Global Top Institutions.

MBS invested heavily to hire consultants from top global consulting firms such as McKinsey, Boston Consulting Group, and Bain, forming a core advisory team. These consulting firms were deeply involved in formulating the Vision 2030 national strategy and even directly intervened in the restructuring of Saudi ministries. This led to a saying within the Saudi bureaucratic system that the most powerful ministry in Saudi Arabia is called the "McKinsey Ministry."

Apart from consulting firms, this procured shadow government also encompasses top financial institutions such as Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Blackstone, and BlackRock, as well as world-leading law firms and public relations companies. It is estimated that since 2016, Saudi Arabia has paid these global top-tier institutions a total remuneration ranging from 25 billion to 40 billion US dollars.

The absolute execution system built by money.

MBS successfully purchased a highly efficient, professional, and exclusively loyal power execution system through massive funding, truly achieving a control effect where no grass grows around power. From a historical perspective, this is not the first time Saudi Arabia has outsourced major government functions—over the past half-century, Saudi Arabia's national security was outsourced to the United States through the oil-for-security agreement; today, MBS has outsourced the core functions of domestic governance to global commercial companies, forming a unique model of commercialized governance.

VI. Global Investment: Weaving a Diplomatic Network with Capital

The diplomatic logic of capital binding.

The MBS-led Saudi sovereign wealth fund is conducting large-scale investments globally. Its core logic is not merely commercial profit but rather packaging political decisions in a commercial form. By injecting capital, it establishes deep ties with global power elites and capital giants, thereby weaving a global diplomatic network that serves Saudi national interests. The MBS-led Saudi sovereign wealth fund is conducting large-scale investments globally. Its core logic is not merely commercial profit but rather packaging political decisions in a commercial form. By injecting capital, it establishes deep ties with global power elites and capital giants, thereby weaving a global diplomatic network that serves Saudi national interests.

The Political Implications of Typical Investment Cases.

Multiple typical investment cases clearly highlight this logic: In 2016, after meeting with SoftBank Group founder Masayoshi Son for just 45 minutes and listening to Son's business blueprint, MBS immediately pledged to invest 45 billion dollars in the SoftBank Vision Fund, averaging a decision of 1 billion dollars per minute. The speed and scale of this decision obviously reflect considerations beyond mere business; In 2021, six months after former President Trump left office, MBS, despite domestic opposition in the United States, invested 2 billion dollars in the private equity fund of Trump's son-in-law, Jared Kushner—previously, when the Khashoggi incident triggered significant criticism of Saudi Arabia in the U.S., Kushner played a key role in easing U.S.-Saudi relations. This investment undoubtedly serves as a reward for Kushner while also aiming to maintain ties with the former core of power in the United States.

The core essence of "MBS-ism"

MBS's global investment portfolio is exceptionally extensive, covering a wide range of assets including Uber, Disney, South Korean gaming companies, the Premier League team Newcastle United, and the Panama Canal. From a strategic perspective, iconic architecture serves as a core tool for MBS to construct a social contract and reshape the power structure domestically (internal governance dimension); global investment, on the other hand, is a key pathway for him to achieve interest alignment and weave a diplomatic network internationally (foreign policy dimension). Together, these two elements form the core of **MBS-ism**: using business logic to thoroughly reshape both domestic governance models and international relations.

Seven, A Decade in Review: Success, Failure, and the Ironic Reality

Economy and Projects: The Gap Between Ideal and Reality

Looking back at the decade of MBS's rule, Saudi Arabia has faced periodic challenges in its economic transformation and the advancement of grand projects, but it has also accumulated valuable development experience. In the field of investment, although the investment in the SoftBank Vision Fund experienced fluctuations on the books, it provided practical experience for the global deployment of Saudi Arabia's sovereign wealth fund. In the realm of visionary projects, The Line linear city has optimized its planning based on actual development needs, shifting from the initial 170 kilometers, accommodating 1.5 million residents to a phased implementation plan of 2.4 kilometers, with less than 300,000 residents, expected to be completed by 2030. This pragmatic adjustment is more conducive to the project's implementation. Notably, the surge in international oil prices from 2021 to 2022 provided additional financial support for Saudi Arabia's transformation projects and allowed the country to more clearly plan a gradual reduction in oil dependence and steadily advance the pace of diversification.

Society and the International: Breakthroughs Beyond Expectations

In stark contrast to the setbacks in the economic sphere, MBS has achieved unexpected success in social reforms and enhancing the international image: at the social level, Saudi Arabia has gradually lifted the ban on women driving, introduced more cultural and entertainment products, marginalized the power of religious police, and significantly opened up the social atmosphere; at the international status level, although Saudi Arabia still relies to some extent on the United States, it is no longer a vassal that follows the U.S. lead in every matter—the most notable example is in 2023, when, under China's mediation, Saudi Arabia and Iran achieved a historic reconciliation. This breakthrough signifies Saudi Arabia's efforts to reshape the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East and its aspiration to become the undisputed leading nation in the region; at the level of public support, MBS, who has brought an open culture, enjoys extremely high approval ratings among the youth, who make up 65% of the population, securing a solid foundation of public support.

The core irony: classical monarchy cloaked in modern attire.

Behind the strategic layout of MBS lies a highly ironic reality: he often wears a pair of $800 Hermès slippers under his traditional white robe, deliberately crafting an image of an approachable and fashionable modern leader. However, beneath the layers of the Saudi Dream, what he truly pursues is the Dream of Power—a dream in which public opinion has never been the core priority. At the heart of this reform blueprint, wrapped in modern corporate governance, AI technology, and futuristic concepts, resides a 19th-century classical monarch, whose ultimate goal is to achieve absolute hereditary authority for himself and his direct descendants—the power to decide matters with a single word, controlling the life and death of the people and the rise and fall of the dynasty. Those scaled-down architectural wonders may ultimately stand like the pyramids of the pharaohs, serving as eternal witnesses to the new dynasty; meanwhile, the absolute state of control, where nothing grows around power, will also transcend time and space, enduring indefinitely.

Summary: Saudi Arabia's Transformation and Rise Driven by Strategic Innovation

Since Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman of Saudi Arabia came to power in 2015, he has implemented a series of radical reforms and grand strategies. The core logic is to weave the Saudi Dream domestically through **Vision 2030 and architectural marvels, winning the support of the younger generation and reshaping the power structure. Simultaneously, through global investments**, he aims to bind international capital and elites externally, reconstructing diplomatic relations with a business-oriented logic. To achieve this goal, MBS has purged the old aristocracy in the name of anti-corruption, raising trillions in funds. He has also invested heavily in hiring top global consulting firms to form a shadow government, achieving unprecedented centralization of power and clearing obstacles for the advancement of various reforms.

A decade has passed, and the strategic layout has yielded remarkable results: although economic transformation faces periodic challenges, it has become more sustainable after pragmatic adjustments. In areas such as social openness, enhancing the national image, and strengthening geopolitical influence (such as the reconciliation with Iran), Saudi Arabia has achieved milestone successes. In essence, by leveraging modern technology and a commercial facade, Saudi Arabia has propelled its transformation from a traditionally dependent nation into an autonomous, leading regional power. Its reform practices profoundly reflect the country’s successful exploration between tradition and modernity, dependence and autonomy, while also providing a crucial case study for the global observation of shifts in the Middle East’s power dynamics.