Electricity prices have skyrocketed, so dismantle wind turbines and dig coal mines? A deep dive into the Germans' "environmental myth."

For a long time, Germany has been regarded as a global benchmark for environmental protection and energy transition, and its energy transition (Energiewende) strategy was once highly anticipated. However, the implementation of a series of radical policies and the impact of geopolitics have plunged this environmental experiment into multiple crises. From dismantling wind power to mining highly polluting lignite, to electricity prices soaring 10 times, triggering industrial relocation, Germany's environmental myth is gradually fading, revealing a profound rift between environmental ideals and energy reality. It also provides a highly cautionary example for global energy transition.

I. Core Contradiction: The Intense Clash Between Environmental Ideals and Energy Realities

The ironic reversal of dismantling wind power to mine lignite.

The paradox of Germany's energy transition is vividly illustrated by the act of dismantling wind turbines to mine lignite. Lignite, as one of the most polluting and carbon-intensive fossil fuels, should be a key target for environmental policy restrictions, yet wind power, a core form of clean energy, is being dismantled to facilitate lignite mining. This action is aptly compared to tearing down the pillars of a temple or burning coffin planks to offer the most vigorous incense to Buddha, ironically revealing the disconnect between Germany's environmental goals and its actual practices.

Extreme bipolar fluctuations in electricity prices.

Currently, the German power system exhibits severe symptoms of schizophrenia and bipolar disorder, with electricity prices swinging violently between extreme lows and extreme highs:

• **Extreme Low Prices:** During certain periods, due to an oversupply of renewable energy, electricity prices fall below the floor price or even turn negative, forcing power plants to pay users to consume electricity.
• **Extreme High Prices:** In December 2024, affected by two consecutive days of windless and sunless dark wind periods, Germany's electricity spot price soared to 936 euros per megawatt-hour, approximately 10 times the usual price. This increase is equivalent to gasoline, normally priced at 7 yuan per liter, suddenly rising to 70 yuan per liter, imposing a heavy burden on businesses and residents.

II. Radical Decision: The Strategic Move of Energy Transition by Abandoning Nuclear Power

The former nuclear power giant's profound heritage.

Germany was once a top global nuclear power, with its first nuclear power plant connected to the grid in 1961, more than 30 years earlier than China. At its peak, nuclear power contributed over 30% of Germany's electricity, becoming the vital heart that sustained German manufacturing, providing stable, low-cost energy support for industrial development.

The sudden downturn after the Fukushima nuclear accident.

Following the Fukushima nuclear accident in Japan in 2011, anti-nuclear sentiment surged rapidly within Germany. Under public pressure, the Merkel government made a radical energy transition decision, clearly planning to shut down all nuclear power plants by 2022. This decision lacked sufficient consideration for the stability of the energy system, laying hidden dangers for the subsequent energy crisis.

Nuclear power is completely phased out.

On April 15, 2023, Germany officially shut down its last three nuclear power plants, completely phasing out nuclear energy from its energy structure. This move resulted in the loss of one of its most important stable power sources, significantly reducing the energy system's ability to withstand risks.On April 15, 2023, Germany officially shut down its last three nuclear power plants, completely phasing out nuclear energy from its energy structure. This move resulted in the loss of one of its most important stable power sources, significantly reducing the energy system's ability to withstand risks.

III. Deep-Seated Motivations: The Geopolitical Calculations Behind the Energy Transition

The environmental agenda represented by Swedish climate activist Greta Thunberg appears to be a global call for climate action, yet it conceals a grand geopolitical strategy of the Western world, with its core logic lying in reshaping the global competitive landscape by changing the playing field:

• **Switching Competitive Tracks:** On the traditional fossil energy track (oil, coal), the Western bloc finds it difficult to compete with major energy exporters such as Russia and the Middle East. Therefore, leveraging its technological and financial advantages, the West attempts to define new carbon neutrality rules, forcibly pulling global energy development onto the new energy track.
• **Strategic Objective:** Once new energy regulations become globally adopted, Russia's oil and Middle Eastern natural gas will significantly depreciate. The West, which holds the discourse power on environmental protection and core patents for new energy, will leverage this to regain global economic dominance, achieving the goal of harvesting the world once again.

IV. Structural Dilemma: The Vulnerability of the Energy System Under Reliance on Wind and Solar Power

According to publicly available data from 2023, Germany's energy structure exhibits serious overestimation and imbalance issues. Behind the seemingly large installed capacity lies unstable and inefficient energy supply:

• **Inflated Installed Capacity:** Germany's total installed power capacity has reached a high level, but the peak electricity demand is only about a fraction of that. The installed capacity is more than several times the actual demand, leading to significant waste in energy infrastructure investment.
• **Severely Imbalanced Structure:** In the total installed capacity, wind and solar energy account for as high as 65.5%. These types of energy are highly susceptible to natural conditions, making them unstable and temporary contributors. In contrast, traditional energy sources such as coal and gas power, which can ensure stable power supply, account for less than 25%, making it difficult to support the fundamental foundation of the energy system.
• Inefficient Equipment: Wind and solar installations account for 65.5% of the capacity but contribute only 43.7% of the electricity generated, indicating low equipment utilization rates. The energy supply model, which heavily relies on weather conditions, frequently exposes the power system to risks of supply-demand imbalance. The fact that only 18% of the electricity demand was met by renewable energy during the low-wind period in the winter of 2024 serves as the best evidence.

V. Collapse of Key Pillars: The "Red Sausage" Effect of Russia's Cheap Natural Gas.

The "burning bridges" plan of excessive dependency.

Over the past two decades, the reason Germany's energy transition has been able to maintain the appearance of a miracle relies fundamentally on cheap Russian natural gas. The underlying logic is to use wind power when available and gas when not, treating Russian natural gas as a transitional bridge until the new energy system is fully established. However, the carbon neutrality timeline announced by Germany essentially amounts to informing Russia, its energy supplier, in advance: you can leave in ten years, which is full of opportunism and risk.

The fatal weakness of the energy lifeline.

The fatal flaw of this strategy lies in entrusting the lifeline of national energy security to the geopolitical rival, the Putin administration. At Germany's most vulnerable moment—when nuclear power had been shut down, coal power was just being reduced, and new energy sources were not yet established—Russia gained the capability to deliver a fatal blow to its energy system, completely relinquishing the initiative in energy security to others.

Six, the Full-Blown Crisis: The Chain Reactions Following the Nord Stream Pipeline Explosion

The 2022 Nord Stream pipeline explosion incident became the trigger for the full-scale outbreak of Germany's energy crisis. The previously relied-upon cheap Russian natural gas, that red sausage, suddenly disappeared, triggering a series of chain reactions:

• **Direct Cause of Sky-High Electricity Prices:** During the dark wind period on December 12, 2024, electricity demand surged sharply. However, due to high gas prices, half of the gas-fired power plants were in a state of deep shutdown and unable to respond quickly to supplement energy supply. This directly led to electricity prices soaring to a sky-high level of 936 euros per megawatt-hour.
• **High System Stabilization Costs:** To balance the instability of wind and solar power generation, German grid operators must pay enormous redispatch costs, which exceeded 3 billion euros in 2023 alone. This heavy burden is ultimately passed on entirely to consumers and industrial enterprises through electricity prices, taxes, and other forms.

Seven, Chain Disasters: From Energy Dependence to the Crisis of "Deindustrialization"

From a power exporter to a major importer.

After the outbreak of the energy crisis, Germany had to swallow its pride and import large quantities of high-priced electricity from France (nuclear power) and Northern Europe (hydropower), which it had long criticized, achieving an awkward reversal from being a European electricity exporter to the largest importer. After the outbreak of the energy crisis, Germany had to swallow its pride and import large quantities of high-priced electricity from France (nuclear power) and Northern Europe (hydropower), which it had long criticized, achieving an awkward reversal from being a European electricity exporter to the largest importer.

The cost of being "harvested" by neighboring countries and the United States.

Under the framework of the European unified electricity market, Germany's high electricity prices directly drive up electricity prices across Europe. Power companies in countries like Norway and France leverage their low-cost electricity to sell at Germany's high prices, reaping enormous profits; the United States also seizes the opportunity to sell liquefied natural gas (LNG) to Germany at quadruple the price, further exacerbating Germany's energy cost burden. Under the framework of the European unified electricity market, Germany's high electricity prices directly drive up electricity prices across Europe. Power companies in countries like Norway and France leverage their low-cost electricity to sell at Germany's high prices, reaping enormous profits; the United States also seizes the opportunity to sell liquefied natural gas (LNG) to Germany at quadruple the price, further exacerbating Germany's energy cost burden.

The industrial heart stops beating and the "Great Escape".

Exorbitant electricity bills have become the final straw that breaks the back of German industry, with approximately half of the costs stemming from taxes and grid balancing fees, severely eroding the profit margins of industrial enterprises. From an economic logic perspective, Profit = Selling Price - Cost. When the core cost of electricity grows indefinitely, corporate profits will approach zero or even turn negative, leading to extreme situations where operating results in immediate losses.

Deindustrialization has become an unavoidable reality for Germany: In September 2024, Volkswagen announced for the first time that it was considering closing its domestic factories in Germany; chemical giant BASF and other companies have been cutting costs at their German headquarters, shutting down some plants, and increasing investments in regions like China. A great exodus of German industry is underway.

VIII. Futile Self-Salvation: Technical Fixes Under Strategic Missteps Fail to Reverse Defeat

. Complicated technical self-rescue attempts

To overcome the crisis, Germany has introduced a series of technical self-rescue measures, including designing complex electricity market mechanisms, promoting smart meters, and developing virtual power plants (Virtuelle Kraftwerke), aiming to aggregate the flexibility of distributed energy resources through algorithms and market mechanisms to alleviate the instability issues of the energy system. To overcome the crisis, Germany has introduced a series of technical self-rescue measures, including designing complex electricity market mechanisms, promoting smart meters, and developing virtual power plants (Virtuelle Kraftwerke), aiming to aggregate the flexibility of distributed energy resources through algorithms and market mechanisms to alleviate the instability issues of the energy system.

Strategic diligence cannot conceal tactical incompetence.

These technological attempts have been evaluated as strategically diligent but tactically incompetent, akin to applying the most expensive band-aid to a patient in cardiac arrest—appearing refined yet failing to address the core issue. The root cause lies in the fatal flaw in the underlying strategy of its energy transition, where mere technical fixes are insufficient to reverse the overall failure.

The loss in the green industry competition.

Germany's plan to sacrifice traditional industries to cultivate green industries has also failed to achieve its desired outcome.In key new energy product markets such as photovoltaic panels, energy storage batteries, and wind turbine blades, China has already taken a dominant position, completely dashing Germany's once highly anticipated green industry strategy. Germany's plan to sacrifice traditional industries to cultivate green industries has also failed to achieve its desired outcome.In key new energy product markets such as photovoltaic panels, energy storage batteries, and wind turbine blades, China has already taken a dominant position, completely dashing Germany's once highly anticipated green industry strategy.

IX. Comparison of Sino-German Paths: The Divide Between Pragmatism and Fundamentalism.

China's pragmatic approach.

China has adopted a pragmatic energy transition strategy: While vigorously developing renewable energy sources such as wind and solar power, it firmly maintains thermal power as the fundamental base, actively promotes the development of nuclear power, and has built the world's largest ultra-high-voltage power grid, achieving cross-regional energy complementarity through physical regulation. The core logic is to first fill the stomach before discussing eating healthily, steadily advancing the transition under the premise of ensuring energy security.

Germany's fundamentalist path.

Germany has moved to the extreme of environmental fundamentalism: in pursuit of absolutely green goals, it is willing to bear the risks of energy shortages and economic recession, just as one might risk starvation in the name of absolute health. This detached and irrational path ultimately leads to a comprehensive crisis.

. Core lesson: Arrogance that defies the laws of nature will inevitably come at a heavy price.

In the face of nature and physical laws, noble ideals alone cannot generate electricity. Germany's failed energy transition profoundly reveals a core lesson: energy transition must respect economic laws and physical realities, and cannot pursue radical political correctness divorced from national conditions.. Ignoring the fundamental prerequisite of energy security and blindly implementing idealized environmental policies will ultimately incur heavy economic and social costs.. In the face of nature and physical laws, noble ideals alone cannot generate electricity. Germany's failed energy transition profoundly reveals a core lesson: energy transition must respect economic laws and physical realities, and cannot pursue radical political correctness divorced from national conditions.. Ignoring the fundamental prerequisite of energy security and blindly implementing idealized environmental policies will ultimately incur heavy economic and social costs..

Conclusion

Germany's radical energy transition is a tragedy where ideals collided with reality. From the hasty phase-out of nuclear power to excessive reliance on wind and solar power, from pinning hopes on cheap energy from geopolitical rivals to the systemic collapse after the Nord Stream pipelines were sabotaged, each misstep has pushed Germany deeper into crisis. This crisis has not only cost Germany through rising energy prices and industrial outflow but also provided a crucial warning for the global energy transition: energy transition is a long-term systematic project, not a radical political movement. Only by balancing environmental goals, energy security, and economic development can it proceed steadily and sustainably. Germany's radical energy transition is a tragedy where ideals collided with reality. From the hasty phase-out of nuclear power to excessive reliance on wind and solar power, from pinning hopes on cheap energy from geopolitical rivals to the systemic collapse after the Nord Stream pipelines were sabotaged, each misstep has pushed Germany deeper into crisis. This crisis has not only cost Germany through rising energy prices and industrial outflow but also provided a crucial warning for the global energy transition: energy transition is a long-term systematic project, not a radical political movement. Only by balancing environmental goals, energy security, and economic development can it proceed steadily and sustainably.