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Today 26 June Briefing Read full brief

Ukraine is winning the deep war. Holding its skies is the harder fight.

Ukraine's bet on strangulation over storming paid off this week: a destroyed rail bridge and a regional state of emergency left occupied Crimea all but cut off, a NATO official said Russia can no longer resupply it, and drones hit refineries and defense plants deep inside Russia. On the front, Russia's offensive stalled — just 14 sq km gained in May. But the win has a ceiling: Ukraine needs about 60 Patriot interceptors a month and the Iran war has drained the US stockpile, even as Russian strikes killed civilians in Kharkiv, Sumy and Oleshky.

Key Indicators
Full catalog · 12

Upcoming

23 key official events ahead
July 2026
Summit
NATO Summit — Ankara

36th NATO summit, hosted by Turkiye at the Bestepe Presidential Complex in Ankara on 7-8 July 2026. Ukraine support, defence spending and the eastern flank are expected to feature; Ukraine typically attends as a partner.

Statistics
Derzhstat CPI release — June 2026 inflation

Monthly Consumer Price Index release covering June 2026 (~9th-10th of the month). Provisional exact day.

Parliament
Verkhovna Rada vote — martial law and mobilization extension

Parliament must extend martial law and general mobilization before the current 90-day period expires on 2 August 2026; the vote is taken in the days beforehand. (Provisional date within the late-July window.)

Central Bank
NBU key policy rate decision (July)

Scheduled NBU Board monetary policy meeting; decision and press briefing at 14:00 Kyiv time. A quarterly 'forecast' meeting accompanied by a new Inflation Report. Key rate currently 15%.

August 2026
Statistics
NBU Inflation Report (Q3) publication

Quarterly macroeconomic forecast and Inflation Report accompanying the July key-rate decision, published per the official monetary-policy publications schedule.

Statistics
Derzhstat CPI release — July 2026 inflation

Monthly Consumer Price Index release covering July 2026 (~9th-10th of the month). Provisional exact day.

September 2026
Parliament
Verkhovna Rada opens autumn session (Ninth convocation)

Parliament's autumn session opens on the first Tuesday of September, as fixed by Article 83 of the Constitution. First plenary sittings set the autumn legislative agenda (budget 2027, mobilization, EU-accession laws).

Statistics
Derzhstat CPI release — August 2026 inflation

Monthly Consumer Price Index release covering August 2026 (~9th-10th of the month). Provisional exact day.

Other
IMF Executive Board — second review of EFF arrangement

Second review of the 48-month US$8.1bn EFF approved 26 Feb 2026, expected on or after 1 September 2026; completion would release a further 2026 tranche (the programme envisages about US$3.8bn across 2026). (Provisional — exact Board date depends on the staff mission and benchmarks.)

Central Bank
NBU key policy rate decision (September)

Scheduled NBU Board monetary policy meeting; decision and press briefing at 14:00 Kyiv time. An interim 'risk-assessment' meeting (no new full forecast).

October 2026
Statistics
Derzhstat CPI release — September 2026 inflation

Monthly Consumer Price Index release covering September 2026 (~9th-10th of the month). Provisional exact day.

Parliament
Verkhovna Rada vote — martial law and mobilization extension

Next 90-day extension of martial law and general mobilization, voted before the period that began 2 August 2026 lapses (~late October / early November). (Provisional date within the window.)

Central Bank
NBU key policy rate decision (October)

Scheduled NBU Board monetary policy meeting; decision and press briefing at 14:00 Kyiv time. A quarterly 'forecast' meeting accompanied by a new Inflation Report.

November 2026
Statistics
NBU Inflation Report (Q4) publication

Quarterly macroeconomic forecast and Inflation Report accompanying the October key-rate decision, published per the official monetary-policy publications schedule.

Statistics
Derzhstat CPI release — October 2026 inflation

Monthly Consumer Price Index release covering October 2026 (~9th-10th of the month). Provisional exact day.

December 2026
Statistics
Derzhstat CPI release — November 2026 inflation

Monthly Consumer Price Index release covering November 2026 (~9th-10th of the month). Provisional exact day.

Central Bank
NBU key policy rate decision (December)

Final scheduled NBU Board monetary policy meeting of 2026; decision and press briefing at 14:00 Kyiv time. An interim 'risk-assessment' meeting closing out the year.

January 2027
Statistics
Derzhstat CPI release — December 2026 inflation (full-year)

Monthly Consumer Price Index release covering December 2026, giving full-year 2026 inflation (~9th-11th of January). Provisional exact day.

Central Bank
NBU key policy rate decision (January) — provisional

First NBU Board monetary policy meeting of 2027, a quarterly forecast meeting with a new Inflation Report. (Provisional — the NBU had not yet published its 2027 meeting calendar; date estimated from the usual late-January Thursday slot.)

February 2027
Parliament
Verkhovna Rada opens spring session (Ninth convocation)

Parliament's spring session opens on the first Tuesday of February per Article 83 of the Constitution. (Provisional — exact opening sitting depends on the published 2027 sessional calendar.)

March 2027
Central Bank
NBU key policy rate decision (March) — provisional

Interim 'risk-assessment' NBU Board monetary policy meeting. (Provisional — 2027 calendar not yet published; date estimated from the typical mid-March Thursday slot.)

April 2027
Central Bank
NBU key policy rate decision (April) — provisional

Quarterly forecast NBU Board meeting with a new Inflation Report; markets watch for the start of the easing cycle (the NBU signalled no cuts before Q2 2027). (Provisional — 2027 calendar not yet published; date estimated from the typical late-April Thursday slot.)

June 2027
Central Bank
NBU key policy rate decision (June) — provisional

Interim 'risk-assessment' NBU Board monetary policy meeting. (Provisional — 2027 calendar not yet published; date estimated from the typical mid-June Thursday slot.)

Ukraine

Recent events

24
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ua48

Russian hardliners urge Putin to abandon US talks and escalate Ukraine war, including nuclear option

Russian nationalist figures are calling on President Vladimir Putin to quit negotiations with the United States and escalate the war in Ukraine, including considering the use of tactical nuclear weapons, following Ukrainian drone strikes on Moscow and other targets. The Kremlin has so far resisted these demands but faces growing pressure from pro-war commentators who argue that diplomacy has failed. Analysts warn that nationalist pressure could raise public expectations for a broader military campaign and complicate future diplomatic decisions.

Show summary

Russian nationalist figures are calling on President Vladimir Putin to quit negotiations with the United States and escalate the war in Ukraine, including considering the use of tactical nuclear weapons, following Ukrainian drone strikes on Moscow and other targets. The Kremlin has so far resisted these demands but faces growing pressure from pro-war commentators who argue that diplomacy has failed. Analysts warn that nationalist pressure could raise public expectations for a broader military campaign and complicate future diplomatic decisions.

ua46

Russia claims downing 660 Ukrainian drones in one of Kyiv's largest long-range strikes; Ukraine intercepts 177 of 189 drones and three Iskander-M missiles

On June 25-26, 2026, Russia and Ukraine exchanged large-scale overnight airstrikes. Russia's Defense Ministry claimed its air defenses shot down 660 Ukrainian drones across 13 regions, including Moscow and occupied Crimea, in what is described as one of Kyiv's largest long-range strikes. Ukraine's Air Force reported intercepting 177 of 189 drones and three of seven Iskander-M missiles launched by Russia. Both sides reported casualties and damage: one person injured in Tula, two in Kyiv, and three in Zaporizhzhia. Ukrainian strikes targeted energy infrastructure, causing fuel shortages and power cuts in Russia and Crimea. Russia denied seeking Belarusian war aid, while Ukraine accused Moscow of pressuring Belarus to join the conflict. Belarusian President Lukashenko stated Belarus has no intention of fighting Ukraine.

Show summary

On June 25-26, 2026, Russia and Ukraine exchanged large-scale overnight airstrikes. Russia's Defense Ministry claimed its air defenses shot down 660 Ukrainian drones across 13 regions, including Moscow and occupied Crimea, in what is described as one of Kyiv's largest long-range strikes. Ukraine's Air Force reported intercepting 177 of 189 drones and three of seven Iskander-M missiles launched by Russia. Both sides reported casualties and damage: one person injured in Tula, two in Kyiv, and three in Zaporizhzhia. Ukrainian strikes targeted energy infrastructure, causing fuel shortages and power cuts in Russia and Crimea. Russia denied seeking Belarusian war aid, while Ukraine accused Moscow of pressuring Belarus to join the conflict. Belarusian President Lukashenko stated Belarus has no intention of fighting Ukraine.

ua43

Ukraine and Russia exchange 160 prisoners of war each in 76th swap

On June 26, 2026, Ukraine and Russia conducted their 76th prisoner exchange, with each side returning 160 prisoners of war. Ukraine brought home 160 servicemembers who had been held since 2022, including 115 defenders of Mariupol and Azovstal, as well as personnel from the Armed Forces, National Guard, Border Guard Service, and other branches. The group includes 58 officers; the youngest is 26 and the oldest 66. President Zelenskyy confirmed the release, thanking frontline units for replenishing the exchange fund. All returnees will receive medical treatment, financial assistance, and rehabilitation. The Coordination Headquarters has now secured the return of 9,606 Ukrainians from captivity since its establishment.

Show summary

On June 26, 2026, Ukraine and Russia conducted their 76th prisoner exchange, with each side returning 160 prisoners of war. Ukraine brought home 160 servicemembers who had been held since 2022, including 115 defenders of Mariupol and Azovstal, as well as personnel from the Armed Forces, National Guard, Border Guard Service, and other branches. The group includes 58 officers; the youngest is 26 and the oldest 66. President Zelenskyy confirmed the release, thanking frontline units for replenishing the exchange fund. All returnees will receive medical treatment, financial assistance, and rehabilitation. The Coordination Headquarters has now secured the return of 9,606 Ukrainians from captivity since its establishment.

ua41

EU Proposes Extending Temporary Protection for Ukrainians Until 2028, Excluding Draft Evaders

The European Commission has proposed extending temporary protection for displaced Ukrainians until March 4, 2028, but excluding new arrivals who leave Ukraine in violation of military mobilization laws. The measure, developed in close coordination with Ukrainian authorities and EU member states, aims to balance refugee support with Ukraine's defense needs. The proposal was announced by Migration Commissioner Magnus Brunner and requires approval by the Council of the European Union, with discussions expected in July and a possible decision by September 2026.

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The European Commission has proposed extending temporary protection for displaced Ukrainians until March 4, 2028, but excluding new arrivals who leave Ukraine in violation of military mobilization laws. The measure, developed in close coordination with Ukrainian authorities and EU member states, aims to balance refugee support with Ukraine's defense needs. The proposal was announced by Migration Commissioner Magnus Brunner and requires approval by the Council of the European Union, with discussions expected in July and a possible decision by September 2026.

ua40

Defense expert says Ukraine's interceptor shortage has no quick fix, recommends strikes on Russian production and NATO air defense extension

Background: Lockheed Martin warned of uncertain Patriot PAC-3 deliveries to Ukraine amid a global supply crunch, while Ukraine faces critical air defense shortages. New development: Marc DeVore, a senior lecturer at the University of St Andrews, stated that Ukraine's shortage of ballistic missile interceptors, particularly Patriot PAC-3s, cannot be quickly resolved due to global production bottlenecks, with the US producing about 600 Patriots annually versus Russia's 70 ballistic missiles per month. The Freya interceptor project with Germany is unlikely to be operational before December 2027. He recommended prioritizing strikes on Russian missile production, extending NATO air defense into western Ukraine, and pursuing interceptors from Japan and South Korea.

Show summary

Background: Lockheed Martin warned of uncertain Patriot PAC-3 deliveries to Ukraine amid a global supply crunch, while Ukraine faces critical air defense shortages. New development: Marc DeVore, a senior lecturer at the University of St Andrews, stated that Ukraine's shortage of ballistic missile interceptors, particularly Patriot PAC-3s, cannot be quickly resolved due to global production bottlenecks, with the US producing about 600 Patriots annually versus Russia's 70 ballistic missiles per month. The Freya interceptor project with Germany is unlikely to be operational before December 2027. He recommended prioritizing strikes on Russian missile production, extending NATO air defense into western Ukraine, and pursuing interceptors from Japan and South Korea.

ua39

ISW: US-Russia talks fail at Alaska Summit; Ukraine strikes refineries; France seizes shadow fleet tanker

Background: The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) previously reported that Ukrainian forces have largely halted the Russian Spring-Summer 2026 offensive, with Russian territorial gains in May 2026 being a fraction of those in May 2025. New development: ISW now assesses that US Secretary of State Marco Rubio confirmed no agreement was reached to end the war in Ukraine during the August 2025 Alaska Summit. Russian cognitive warfare narratives have failed to persuade Ukraine's partners to capitulate. Ukraine's ongoing strike campaign against Russian refineries is exacerbating broader Russian inflationary pressures. French authorities seized a Russian shadow fleet oil tanker on June 25. Ukrainian forces continued long-range strikes on Russian oil infrastructure, and Russia launched one Iskander-M missile and 90 drones against Ukraine overnight.

Show summary

Background: The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) previously reported that Ukrainian forces have largely halted the Russian Spring-Summer 2026 offensive, with Russian territorial gains in May 2026 being a fraction of those in May 2025. New development: ISW now assesses that US Secretary of State Marco Rubio confirmed no agreement was reached to end the war in Ukraine during the August 2025 Alaska Summit. Russian cognitive warfare narratives have failed to persuade Ukraine's partners to capitulate. Ukraine's ongoing strike campaign against Russian refineries is exacerbating broader Russian inflationary pressures. French authorities seized a Russian shadow fleet oil tanker on June 25. Ukrainian forces continued long-range strikes on Russian oil infrastructure, and Russia launched one Iskander-M missile and 90 drones against Ukraine overnight.

ua39

UN documents 29 civilian deaths in Oleshky; international calls for local ceasefire intensify

Background: Ukraine and Russia had previously agreed on technical steps to evacuate 6,000 civilians from the Oleshky area, pending a Russian ceasefire date. As of June 6, 2026, the humanitarian situation in Oleshky has deteriorated into famine after food deliveries ceased on May 4. Ukraine is urgently calling on the UN, ICRC, and OSCE to help establish a supervised humanitarian corridor to evacuate up to 2,000 civilians, including 50 children, who are trapped by mines, destroyed bridges, and Russian forces blocking aid. The Oleshky Military Administration reports that five of 13 localities in the district have been completely destroyed. Residents face landmine deaths, lack of food, water, medicine, and electricity, and cannot access medical care. Ukrainian Ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets has appealed to the ICRC, which offered buses for evacuation, but Russia has not confirmed a ceasefire date. Some civilians are self-evacuating via a dangerous mined route through Russian-occupied Skadovsk and then through Russia to Ukrainian-controlled territory, but only those with Russian passports can pass checkpoints. The UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine documented at least 29 civilians killed and 54 injured in Oleshky and nearby settlements in 2026 alone, mostly by FPV drones. No food deliveries have reached Oleshky since May 26. Human Rights Watch interviews with evacuees from October 2025 to May 2026 confirm shattered infrastructure and a hellscape of drone attacks and shortages. The UN resident and humanitarian coordinator called for a localized ceasefire to enable evacuations and aid delivery. Ukrainian MP Serhiy Kozyr described Russian drone attacks as a 'human safari.' Human rights advocate Mykola Kuleba reported bodies scattered in the streets and injured civilians unable to receive medical care. Ambassador John Herbst of the Atlantic Council called the situation part of an ongoing Russian war crime campaign. Oleksandra Matviichuk, head of the Center for Civil Liberties, urged international action and sanctions at the Ukraine Recovery Conference in Gdańsk.

Show summary

Background: Ukraine and Russia had previously agreed on technical steps to evacuate 6,000 civilians from the Oleshky area, pending a Russian ceasefire date. As of June 6, 2026, the humanitarian situation in Oleshky has deteriorated into famine after food deliveries ceased on May 4. Ukraine is urgently calling on the UN, ICRC, and OSCE to help establish a supervised humanitarian corridor to evacuate up to 2,000 civilians, including 50 children, who are trapped by mines, destroyed bridges, and Russian forces blocking aid. The Oleshky Military Administration reports that five of 13 localities in the district have been completely destroyed. Residents face landmine deaths, lack of food, water, medicine, and electricity, and cannot access medical care. Ukrainian Ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets has appealed to the ICRC, which offered buses for evacuation, but Russia has not confirmed a ceasefire date. Some civilians are self-evacuating via a dangerous mined route through Russian-occupied Skadovsk and then through Russia to Ukrainian-controlled territory, but only those with Russian passports can pass checkpoints. The UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine documented at least 29 civilians killed and 54 injured in Oleshky and nearby settlements in 2026 alone, mostly by FPV drones. No food deliveries have reached Oleshky since May 26. Human Rights Watch interviews with evacuees from October 2025 to May 2026 confirm shattered infrastructure and a hellscape of drone attacks and shortages. The UN resident and humanitarian coordinator called for a localized ceasefire to enable evacuations and aid delivery. Ukrainian MP Serhiy Kozyr described Russian drone attacks as a 'human safari.' Human rights advocate Mykola Kuleba reported bodies scattered in the streets and injured civilians unable to receive medical care. Ambassador John Herbst of the Atlantic Council called the situation part of an ongoing Russian war crime campaign. Oleksandra Matviichuk, head of the Center for Civil Liberties, urged international action and sanctions at the Ukraine Recovery Conference in Gdańsk.

ua38

Ukraine reports 257 combat clashes on June 26 with heaviest fighting in Pokrovsk sector

The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported 257 combat engagements over the past 24 hours as of 8:00 a.m. on June 26, 2026, with the most intense fighting in the Pokrovsk sector where Ukrainian forces repelled 31 Russian assaults. Russia conducted one missile strike, 101 guided bomb strikes, and deployed 9,388 kamikaze drones. Ukrainian forces struck 14 enemy targets including personnel concentrations, artillery, a fuel depot, and a command post. Russian losses were reported as 1,310 personnel. Fighting also occurred in the Northern Slobozhanshchyna, Southern Slobozhanshchyna, Kupiansk, Lyman, Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, Kostiantynivka, Oleksandrivka, Huliaipole, Orikhiv, and Prydniprovske sectors.

Show summary

The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported 257 combat engagements over the past 24 hours as of 8:00 a.m. on June 26, 2026, with the most intense fighting in the Pokrovsk sector where Ukrainian forces repelled 31 Russian assaults. Russia conducted one missile strike, 101 guided bomb strikes, and deployed 9,388 kamikaze drones. Ukrainian forces struck 14 enemy targets including personnel concentrations, artillery, a fuel depot, and a command post. Russian losses were reported as 1,310 personnel. Fighting also occurred in the Northern Slobozhanshchyna, Southern Slobozhanshchyna, Kupiansk, Lyman, Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, Kostiantynivka, Oleksandrivka, Huliaipole, Orikhiv, and Prydniprovske sectors.

Frequently Asked

5
How is Ukraine isolating Crimea?
Ukraine destroyed the railway bridge over the North Crimean Canal near Rozdolne, burned cable ships and ferries at Kerch, and targeted fuel and power infrastructure, reducing military cargo into Crimea by 71 percent.
Why is Ukraine's air defense weakening?
Ukraine needs about 60 Patriot interceptors monthly, but the US stockpile is depleted by defending Gulf bases against Iran's drone swarms, leaving fewer missiles for Ukraine.
What progress has Ukraine made on the ground?
Russia's spring-summer offensive gained only 14 square kilometers in May, and Ukrainian drones destroyed over 100 Russian artillery systems that month, blocking troop rotations.
How is the diplomatic situation shifting?
The US dropped its neutral mediator role and signed a G7 text backing Ukraine's territorial integrity, while Trump is warming to Kyiv, but Russia hardened its maximalist aims.
What is the main challenge for Ukraine going forward?
Ukraine must keep its air shield stocked with interceptors amid global shortages and decide whether strangling Crimea will push Putin toward a settlement or a wider war.