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Today 11 June Briefing Read full brief

Erdoğan's busy week abroad has a purpose at home

Erdoğan spent the week looking indispensable to the world — mediating between Washington and Tehran, branding Turkey a regional 'playmaker', and savaging Netanyahu over Gaza. It is real influence, and it has a domestic use. The more the West needs Ankara, the freer his hand at home, where he has jailed his strongest rival and hundreds of opposition officials and will host NATO's leaders next month behind 40,000 security personnel. The same assertiveness that makes Turkey useful to Washington also had its jets harassing European defence ministers off Cyprus.

Key Indicators
Full catalog · 18

Upcoming

25 key official events ahead
July 2026
Statistics
TÜİK Consumer Price Index release (June data)

Monthly CPI print for June, the headline inflation gauge tracked against the central bank's disinflation path. TÜİK releases CPI around the 3rd of each month at 10:00 Ankara time.

Summit
2026 Ankara NATO Summit

Heads of state and government of NATO members meet at the Beştepe Presidential Complex in Ankara on 7-8 July. The 36th NATO summit and the second hosted by Türkiye; agenda includes defence spending, the Alliance's southern flank and the largest-ever NATO defence-industry forum.

Statistics
TÜİK Labour Force Statistics release (June data)

Monthly unemployment and employment data for June. TÜİK publishes Labour Force Statistics on the 15th of each month (or the next working day) at 10:00 Ankara time; 15 July falls in the release window.

Central Bank
CBRT Monetary Policy Committee interest rate decision (July)

Seventh of eight 2026 MPC meetings. Policy-rate decision and statement published at 14:00 Ankara time.

August 2026
Statistics
TÜİK Consumer Price Index release (July data)

Monthly CPI print for July. Released around the 3rd of the month at 10:00 Ankara time.

Central Bank
CBRT Inflation Report 2026-III

Third of the CBRT's four quarterly Inflation Reports for 2026, presented at a Governor's briefing. Updates the bank's inflation forecasts and outlook, closely watched for any revision to the year-end inflation projection.

Statistics
TÜİK Labour Force Statistics release (July data)

Monthly unemployment and employment data for July, released in the mid-month window (around the 15th) at 10:00 Ankara time.

September 2026
Statistics
TÜİK Q2 2026 GDP release

Second-quarter gross domestic product print, the headline growth reading. TÜİK publishes quarterly GDP roughly two months after the quarter ends; the Q2 release lands around 1 September.

Statistics
TÜİK Consumer Price Index release (August data)

Monthly CPI print for August. Released around the 3rd of the month at 10:00 Ankara time.

Central Bank
CBRT Monetary Policy Committee interest rate decision (September)

Eighth scheduled 2026 MPC meeting (counting from January). Policy-rate decision and statement published at 14:00 Ankara time.

October 2026
Statistics
TÜİK Consumer Price Index release (September data)

Monthly CPI print for September; the 3rd falls on a weekend so the release shifts to the first working day. Published at 10:00 Ankara time.

Central Bank
CBRT Monetary Policy Committee interest rate decision (October)

Penultimate 2026 MPC meeting. Policy-rate decision and statement published at 14:00 Ankara time.

November 2026
Statistics
TÜİK Consumer Price Index release (October data)

Monthly CPI print for October. Released around the 3rd of the month at 10:00 Ankara time.

Central Bank
CBRT Inflation Report 2026-IV

Final quarterly Inflation Report of 2026, presented at a Governor's briefing. Sets out the bank's updated inflation forecasts heading into 2027.

Statistics
TÜİK Labour Force Statistics release (October data)

Monthly unemployment and employment data for October, released in the mid-month window (15th falls on a weekend, shifting to the next working day) at 10:00 Ankara time.

Central Bank
CBRT Financial Stability Report (November)

Second of the CBRT's two semi-annual Financial Stability Reports for 2026, assessing risks in the banking system, credit, FX and external balances.

December 2026
Statistics
TÜİK Consumer Price Index release (November data)

Monthly CPI print for November. Released around the 3rd of the month at 10:00 Ankara time.

Central Bank
CBRT Monetary Policy Committee interest rate decision (December)

Final 2026 MPC meeting. Policy-rate decision and statement published at 14:00 Ankara time; the last rate-setting decision of the year.

Central Bank
CBRT Monetary Policy text for 2027

Annual monetary-policy framework document for the coming year, which also publishes the full 2027 schedule of MPC meeting and report dates. Sets out the inflation target and policy approach for 2027.

Statistics
TÜİK Q3 2026 GDP release

Third-quarter gross domestic product print. TÜİK publishes quarterly GDP roughly 80 days after the quarter ends; the Q3 release lands in late December. (provisional date pending TÜİK release calendar)

January 2027
Statistics
TÜİK Consumer Price Index release (December data)

Monthly CPI print for December and the full-year 2026 inflation figure; 3 January falls on a weekend so the release shifts to the first working day. Published at 10:00 Ankara time.

Central Bank
CBRT Monetary Policy Committee interest rate decision (January)

First MPC meeting of 2027, expected in the fourth week of January in line with the CBRT's usual cadence. (provisional date; the official 2027 schedule is published with the December 2026 monetary-policy text)

February 2027
Statistics
TÜİK Consumer Price Index release (January 2027 data)

Monthly CPI print for January 2027. Released around the 3rd of the month at 10:00 Ankara time. (provisional; based on TÜİK's standard ~3rd-of-month cadence)

Central Bank
CBRT Inflation Report 2027-I

First quarterly Inflation Report of 2027, presented at a Governor's briefing with updated inflation forecasts. (provisional date; the 2026-I report was published on 12 February 2026 and the exact 2027 date is confirmed with the December 2026 schedule)

April 2027
Election
Turkish constitutional referendum (potential)

AKP signals a possible referendum on a new constitution, linked to the renewed Kurdish peace process and a potential reset of presidential term limits. Targeted for autumn 2026 or, more likely, spring 2027. (provisional; no official date called, exact date is speculative)

Turkey

Recent events

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Erdoğan compares Netanyahu to Hitler, calls for accountability

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan escalated his criticism of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, comparing him to Hitler and stating that those following in Hitler's footsteps will end like all tyrants. Speaking at a Red Crescent event in Ankara, Erdoğan called on the world to hold the Netanyahu administration accountable for crimes, describing Israel as a 'factory producing instability and chaos.' He also highlighted the Red Crescent's delivery of over 26,000 tons of humanitarian aid to Gaza and 15 million meals since October 7, 2023. Netanyahu responded on social media, claiming Israel's moral superiority over Turkey. Türkiye, a party to the genocide case against Israel at the International Court of Justice, has cut all ties with Israel since 2023.

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Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan escalated his criticism of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, comparing him to Hitler and stating that those following in Hitler's footsteps will end like all tyrants. Speaking at a Red Crescent event in Ankara, Erdoğan called on the world to hold the Netanyahu administration accountable for crimes, describing Israel as a 'factory producing instability and chaos.' He also highlighted the Red Crescent's delivery of over 26,000 tons of humanitarian aid to Gaza and 15 million meals since October 7, 2023. Netanyahu responded on social media, claiming Israel's moral superiority over Turkey. Türkiye, a party to the genocide case against Israel at the International Court of Justice, has cut all ties with Israel since 2023.

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Israeli MP Declares Turkey an 'Enemy State' Amid Escalating Rhetoric

Israeli lawmaker Ariel Kellner (Likud) declared Turkey an 'enemy state' in a radio interview, accusing President Erdogan of seeking to restore the Islamic caliphate and calling him a dangerous threat to Israel and the West. This escalation follows Erdogan's condemnation of Israeli military actions in Syria and Lebanon, and Netanyahu's labeling of Erdogan as an 'antisemitic dictator'. The dispute reflects deepening geopolitical rifts over the Gaza war and influence in Syria, with implications for regional stability and US-Turkey relations. US President Trump praised Erdogan as a friend. The escalation includes previous calls by Israeli minister Miki Zohar to treat Turkey as an enemy state, amid ongoing tensions over Gaza and Syria.

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Israeli lawmaker Ariel Kellner (Likud) declared Turkey an 'enemy state' in a radio interview, accusing President Erdogan of seeking to restore the Islamic caliphate and calling him a dangerous threat to Israel and the West. This escalation follows Erdogan's condemnation of Israeli military actions in Syria and Lebanon, and Netanyahu's labeling of Erdogan as an 'antisemitic dictator'. The dispute reflects deepening geopolitical rifts over the Gaza war and influence in Syria, with implications for regional stability and US-Turkey relations. US President Trump praised Erdogan as a friend. The escalation includes previous calls by Israeli minister Miki Zohar to treat Turkey as an enemy state, amid ongoing tensions over Gaza and Syria.

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Turkey urges US and Iran to de-escalate and finalize peace text

Background: Turkey has expressed confidence in Pakistan-mediated US-Iran talks and offered potential participation in demining operations in the Strait of Hormuz post-agreement. On June 11, 2026, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, speaking in Sofia alongside Bulgarian counterpart Velislava Petrova-Chamova, urged the US and Iran to cease mutual attacks and return to negotiations to finalize a peace text. He expressed concern over renewed US strikes on Iranian targets and Iranian retaliation, which threaten the April ceasefire. Fidan also discussed Black Sea security, EU-Turkey relations, and bilateral cooperation with Bulgaria.

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Background: Turkey has expressed confidence in Pakistan-mediated US-Iran talks and offered potential participation in demining operations in the Strait of Hormuz post-agreement. On June 11, 2026, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, speaking in Sofia alongside Bulgarian counterpart Velislava Petrova-Chamova, urged the US and Iran to cease mutual attacks and return to negotiations to finalize a peace text. He expressed concern over renewed US strikes on Iranian targets and Iranian retaliation, which threaten the April ceasefire. Fidan also discussed Black Sea security, EU-Turkey relations, and bilateral cooperation with Bulgaria.

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Erdoğan to unveil Türkiye's national AI road map on June 13

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan will unveil Türkiye's new artificial intelligence road map on June 13 in Istanbul, outlining a comprehensive national strategy to strengthen the country's position in the global AI sector. The plan, prepared under the presidency, focuses on infrastructure development, human capital, and industrial innovation, including high-capacity data centers, AI workforce training, support for domestic tech startups, and advancement of Türkiye's own large language models. AI applications in public services, defense, healthcare, and education are also key components. The road map is expected to coordinate public and private sector investments and serve as a foundation for Türkiye's future digital economy strategy.

Show summary

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan will unveil Türkiye's new artificial intelligence road map on June 13 in Istanbul, outlining a comprehensive national strategy to strengthen the country's position in the global AI sector. The plan, prepared under the presidency, focuses on infrastructure development, human capital, and industrial innovation, including high-capacity data centers, AI workforce training, support for domestic tech startups, and advancement of Türkiye's own large language models. AI applications in public services, defense, healthcare, and education are also key components. The road map is expected to coordinate public and private sector investments and serve as a foundation for Türkiye's future digital economy strategy.

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Turkey and Poland deepen defense industry cooperation

Turkish defense industry chief Haluk Gorgun met with Polish Deputy PM and Defense Minister Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz in Warsaw to discuss deepening defense industry cooperation. Talks focused on unmanned systems, including Bayraktar UAVs, technology transfer, operational experience sharing, and mutual investments. Both sides aim to strengthen their strategic partnership within NATO.

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Turkish defense industry chief Haluk Gorgun met with Polish Deputy PM and Defense Minister Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz in Warsaw to discuss deepening defense industry cooperation. Talks focused on unmanned systems, including Bayraktar UAVs, technology transfer, operational experience sharing, and mutual investments. Both sides aim to strengthen their strategic partnership within NATO.

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Turkey and Bulgaria reaffirm plans for new border crossing, urge US-Iran talks

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan and Bulgarian Foreign Minister Velislava Petrova-Chamova reaffirmed plans for a new border crossing north of Kapikule, Europe's busiest border gate. They also discussed energy cooperation, with Turkish Petroleum set to begin exploration in Bulgaria's Han Tervel block. Fidan urged the US and Iran to halt attacks and return to negotiations, warning that escalation benefits no one.

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Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan and Bulgarian Foreign Minister Velislava Petrova-Chamova reaffirmed plans for a new border crossing north of Kapikule, Europe's busiest border gate. They also discussed energy cooperation, with Turkish Petroleum set to begin exploration in Bulgaria's Han Tervel block. Fidan urged the US and Iran to halt attacks and return to negotiations, warning that escalation benefits no one.

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Turkey escalates rhetoric against Greek Cypriot military alliances and French SOFA

Background: Turkey has long opposed Greek Cypriot military alliances, particularly a Status of Forces Agreement with France, viewing them as threats to Turkish Cypriot sovereignty and regional stability. Today: Turkey's Ministry of National Defense reiterated President Erdogan's criticism, condemning the French SOFA as a provocation that ignores Turkish Cypriot sovereignty and violates the 1960 Cyprus treaties, while denying harassment claims and accusing Greece and Greek Cypriots of violating TRNC airspace. President Erdogan named Israel as a destabilizing force and warned against adventures in the Eastern Mediterranean. Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan met his Greek counterpart in Sofia, urging Greece to avoid steps harming regional stability, and discussed Turkey's draft 'Blue Homeland' maritime jurisdiction law, which Greece reportedly considers a provocation.

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Background: Turkey has long opposed Greek Cypriot military alliances, particularly a Status of Forces Agreement with France, viewing them as threats to Turkish Cypriot sovereignty and regional stability. Today: Turkey's Ministry of National Defense reiterated President Erdogan's criticism, condemning the French SOFA as a provocation that ignores Turkish Cypriot sovereignty and violates the 1960 Cyprus treaties, while denying harassment claims and accusing Greece and Greek Cypriots of violating TRNC airspace. President Erdogan named Israel as a destabilizing force and warned against adventures in the Eastern Mediterranean. Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan met his Greek counterpart in Sofia, urging Greece to avoid steps harming regional stability, and discussed Turkey's draft 'Blue Homeland' maritime jurisdiction law, which Greece reportedly considers a provocation.

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Turkey says BYD investment deal still valid despite production halt

Turkey's Industry and Technology Ministry confirmed that the investment agreement with Chinese EV maker BYD, including obligations and guarantees, remains valid. This follows BYD Executive Vice President Stella Li stating the factory in Turkey is on hold. The ministry had suspended BYD's access to incentives earlier in 2026 due to lack of progress. Land allocation in Manisa had been completed after payment, but the investment has not progressed as planned. The situation highlights challenges in foreign direct investment and Turkey's industrial policy.

Show summary

Turkey's Industry and Technology Ministry confirmed that the investment agreement with Chinese EV maker BYD, including obligations and guarantees, remains valid. This follows BYD Executive Vice President Stella Li stating the factory in Turkey is on hold. The ministry had suspended BYD's access to incentives earlier in 2026 due to lack of progress. Land allocation in Manisa had been completed after payment, but the investment has not progressed as planned. The situation highlights challenges in foreign direct investment and Turkey's industrial policy.

Frequently Asked

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What did Erdoğan declare at the National Security Conference?
Erdoğan declared that Turkey had stopped following other countries' scripts and become a regional 'playmaker' that writes its own.
How is Turkey involved in US-Iran peace efforts?
Foreign minister Hakan Fidan offered to help finalize a peace text and clear mines from the Strait of Hormuz once a deal is struck.
What domestic crackdown has Erdoğan's government carried out?
Istanbul mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu was jailed with prosecutors seeking a sentence measured in thousands of years, and over 500 CHP officials have been detained.
When is the NATO summit hosted by Ankara?
The NATO summit is scheduled for July 7-8 in Ankara.