Turkey Manufacturing PMI Falls to 45.7 as Iran War Bites

Türkiye's Istanbul Chamber of Industry manufacturing PMI compiled by S&P Global fell to 45.7 in April from 47.9 in March, the deepest contraction in production since the COVID-19 pandemic and the 25th consecutive month below the 50 line that separates growth from contraction. Total new orders and export business both fell by much more than in March, with input-cost inflation accelerating on higher fuel and oil costs the survey attributed directly to the Iran war. Firms cut employment, purchasing, and inventories; suppliers' delivery times lengthened. "April saw an intensification of the impact of the war in the Middle East on the Turkish manufacturing sector, with firms reporting muted demand, strengthening inflation and supply-chain disruption," said Andrew Harker, economics director at S&P Global Market Intelligence. The PMI reading came one day after a record April export print of $25.4 billion led by the automotive sector — a tension between order-book softening and stocked-up shipment activity that the central bank now has to weigh.

Annual consumer-price inflation rose to 32.37 percent in April from 30.9 percent in March, above a Reuters-poll forecast of 31.25 percent, the Turkish Statistical Institute reported. Monthly inflation climbed 4.18 percent, more than doubling from 1.9 percent in March, with housing, fuel, and clothing leading the rise. The central bank had already flagged rising inflation risks the previous month, citing fallout from the Iran war.

Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis said on 3 May that Greece and Libya had agreed to advance discussions through technical committees on delimiting the continental shelf and exclusive economic zone. The announcement followed a visit to Libya by Greek Foreign Minister George Gerapetritis a week earlier, and counters the 2019 maritime accord between Libya and Türkiye that Greece has long contested. Türkiye's state oil company TPAO signed a memorandum with Libya's National Oil Corporation in June 2025 to conduct seismic surveys in four offshore blocks; the Greek-Libyan track now puts those blocks in fresh dispute.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, speaking at a Die Zeit anniversary event in Hamburg, said Europe must be "completed" to avoid falling under Russian, Turkish or Chinese influence — placing Türkiye in the same category as Moscow and Beijing despite its formal EU candidate status and NATO membership. Analysts cited the framing as a marker of Europe's shifting strategic psychology amid internal fragility and Türkiye's growing assertiveness.