Turkish manufacturing PMI plunges to 45.7 in April, deepest production cut since COVID, on Iran-war shock
Türkiye's Istanbul Chamber of Industry manufacturing PMI fell to 45.7 in April from 47.9 in March, the steepest production cut since the COVID-19 pandemic, S&P Global said. The reading marks 25 consecutive months of contraction, with new orders and export business both falling by much more than in March as the Iran war drove higher input costs and supply-chain disruption. Firms responded by cutting employment, purchasing, and inventories. The PMI plunge sits alongside a record April export reading of $25.4 billion the same week.
Türkiye's manufacturing sector contracted sharply in April, with the Istanbul Chamber of Industry (ISO) PMI compiled by S&P Global falling to 45.7 from 47.9 in March. The 50 line separates growth from contraction. Manufacturing production was cut at the joint-steepest pace since the COVID-19 pandemic, and the contraction now extends to 25 consecutive months.
The survey points to demand and supply pressures hitting at the same time. Total new orders and export business both fell by much more than in March, with firms linking the softer order book partly to mounting inflationary pressure. Input-cost inflation accelerated again, driven by higher fuel and oil costs that the survey attributed directly to the war. Suppliers' delivery times lengthened, stocks of inputs fell, and firms cut employment, purchasing activity, and inventories.
"April saw an intensification of the impact of the war in the Middle East on the Turkish manufacturing sector, with firms reporting muted demand, strengthening inflation and supply-chain disruption," said Andrew Harker, economics director at S&P Global Market Intelligence. "Concerns around how long the effects of the conflict may persist mean that manufacturers are in a cautious mood, scaling back employment, purchasing and inventories accordingly."
The PMI reading sits awkwardly against a record April export print of $25.4 billion reported on 3 May, led by the automotive sector. Earlier in the period, Turkey's gold demand hit a record value in the first quarter — a household hedging signal — and government data put 2025 military spending at $30 billion, surpassing the combined budgets of several neighbouring states.