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Key Indicators
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20 key official events ahead
September 2026
Statistics
ONS CPI inflation (August 2026 data)

Consumer Prices Index for August 2026, published at 7am the day before the September MPC decision.

Central Bank
Bank of England MPC interest rate decision (September 2026)

MPC Bank Rate announcement and minutes at noon. No Monetary Policy Report this round.

Parliament
House of Commons rises for conference recess

Parliament adjourns for the party-conference recess at the end of business on 17 September, returning on 12 October.

October 2026
Parliament
House of Commons returns from conference recess

Commons resumes sitting on 12 October after the conference recess, opening the autumn session that typically culminates in the Budget.

Statistics
ONS CPI inflation (September 2026 data)

Consumer Prices Index for September 2026, published at 7am. September CPI is the reference figure used for benefits and many index-linked uprating decisions.

November 2026
Central Bank
Bank of England MPC interest rate decision + Monetary Policy Report (November 2026)

MPC Bank Rate decision and minutes at noon, with the quarterly Monetary Policy Report and refreshed forecasts.

Statistics
ONS CPI inflation (October 2026 data)

Consumer Prices Index for October 2026, published at 7am, typically the last inflation print before the Autumn Budget.

Parliament
Autumn Budget 2026

Chancellor Rachel Reeves' Autumn Budget, with the OBR publishing updated economic and fiscal forecasts. Date is provisional - based on the late-November pattern (the 2025 Budget fell on 26 November); not yet officially confirmed.

December 2026
Summit
G20 Leaders' Summit, Miami (USA)

G20 leaders' summit, 14-15 December at Doral, Florida. UK Prime Minister attends; global economy, debt and geopolitical tensions on the agenda.

Statistics
ONS CPI inflation (November 2026 data)

Consumer Prices Index for November 2026, published at 7am the day before the December MPC decision.

Parliament
House of Commons rises for Christmas recess

Parliament adjourns for the Christmas recess at the end of business on 17 December, returning on 5 January 2027.

Central Bank
Bank of England MPC interest rate decision (December 2026)

Final MPC Bank Rate announcement of 2026, minutes at noon. No Monetary Policy Report this round.

January 2027
Parliament
House of Commons returns from Christmas recess

Commons resumes sitting on 5 January 2027 after the Christmas recess.

Statistics
ONS CPI inflation (December 2026 data)

Consumer Prices Index for December 2026, published at 7am - the full-year inflation read for 2026.

February 2027
Central Bank
Bank of England MPC interest rate decision + Monetary Policy Report (February 2027)

First MPC decision of 2027; Bank Rate announcement and minutes at noon with the quarterly Monetary Policy Report.

Parliament
House of Commons rises for February recess

Parliament adjourns for the February half-term recess at the end of business on 11 February 2027, returning on 22 February.

Statistics
ONS CPI inflation (January 2027 data)

Consumer Prices Index for January 2027, published at 7am. Date is provisional - follows the standard mid-month cadence; not yet on the official ONS release calendar.

Parliament
House of Commons returns from February recess

Commons resumes sitting on 22 February 2027 after the February recess.

March 2027
Central Bank
Bank of England MPC interest rate decision (March 2027)

MPC Bank Rate announcement and minutes at noon. No Monetary Policy Report this round.

May 2027
Election
UK local elections 2027

Local elections on Thursday 6 May 2027 across roughly 195 English councils plus all Scottish and Welsh councils - the next nationwide electoral test after the May 2026 polls.

United Kingdom

Recent events

24
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gb46

UK gas prices hit three-year highs as Strait of Hormuz closure persists, raising winter bill fears

Background: UK inflation rose to 2.9% in July, driven by a 13% increase in the energy price cap due to the US-Iran war and Strait of Hormuz closures. New development: Wholesale natural gas prices in Europe and the UK have hit three-year highs, with the European benchmark topping €75/MWh and UK prices exceeding 185p per therm, as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed due to the US-Iran conflict. Analysts warn of upside risks, with Capital Economics predicting gas prices could exceed €80 by year-end and the strait not reopening until early 2027. UK households face a predicted 9% rise in energy bills in January, adding to recent increases, with Cornwall Insight noting increased pressure on the January price cap forecast. The government points to VAT cuts and renewable energy efforts, while British Gas owner Centrica warns of low UK gas storage and calls for support to expand its Rough facility. Oxford Economics describes the situation as 'serious, but not catastrophic,' with the outcome depending on winter weather and potential demand reduction from renewables.

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Background: UK inflation rose to 2.9% in July, driven by a 13% increase in the energy price cap due to the US-Iran war and Strait of Hormuz closures. New development: Wholesale natural gas prices in Europe and the UK have hit three-year highs, with the European benchmark topping €75/MWh and UK prices exceeding 185p per therm, as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed due to the US-Iran conflict. Analysts warn of upside risks, with Capital Economics predicting gas prices could exceed €80 by year-end and the strait not reopening until early 2027. UK households face a predicted 9% rise in energy bills in January, adding to recent increases, with Cornwall Insight noting increased pressure on the January price cap forecast. The government points to VAT cuts and renewable energy efforts, while British Gas owner Centrica warns of low UK gas storage and calls for support to expand its Rough facility. Oxford Economics describes the situation as 'serious, but not catastrophic,' with the outcome depending on winter weather and potential demand reduction from renewables.

gb45

UK Mortgage Rates Set to Rise as Global Bond Sell-Off Pushes Swap Rates to Three-Year High

Background: UK mortgage rates had already risen to a one-month high amid Middle East tensions and higher lender funding costs. Today, a global bond sell-off, driven by inflation fears from rising oil prices amid US-Iran conflict, has pushed five-year swap rates above 4.52%, the highest since October 2023, signaling imminent increases in fixed-term mortgage rates. Analysts predict a modest increase in fixed-term mortgage rates. The average two-year fix remains at 5.59%, and the five-year fix at 5.63%, unchanged on Thursday, but swap rates are now 0.7% above a year ago. The rise in gilt yields also complicates the new prime minister's fiscal plans, as he promised 'fiscal responsibility' in his first PMQs ahead of the autumn budget.

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Background: UK mortgage rates had already risen to a one-month high amid Middle East tensions and higher lender funding costs. Today, a global bond sell-off, driven by inflation fears from rising oil prices amid US-Iran conflict, has pushed five-year swap rates above 4.52%, the highest since October 2023, signaling imminent increases in fixed-term mortgage rates. Analysts predict a modest increase in fixed-term mortgage rates. The average two-year fix remains at 5.59%, and the five-year fix at 5.63%, unchanged on Thursday, but swap rates are now 0.7% above a year ago. The rise in gilt yields also complicates the new prime minister's fiscal plans, as he promised 'fiscal responsibility' in his first PMQs ahead of the autumn budget.

gb44

Argentina's Milei announces sanctions and naval base in Falklands escalation

Background: Argentina's President Javier Milei has been escalating rhetoric on the Falkland Islands sovereignty claim, leveraging ties with US President Donald Trump amid US-UK tensions over the Iran war. Today: In a televised address on September 3, 2026, Milei announced plans to establish an integrated naval base in Tierra del Fuego and to introduce legislation imposing sanctions on companies involved in unauthorized oil exploration near the Falkland Islands, specifically targeting the Sea Lion oilfield operated by UK's Rockhopper Exploration and Israel's Navitas Petroleum. Milei cited US President Donald Trump's recent remarks suggesting a possible review of US neutrality on the sovereignty dispute, framing them as favorable to Argentina's claim. The UK government, including Defence Secretary Wes Streeting and Prime Minister Andy Burnham's office, reaffirmed its commitment to the Falkland Islanders' right to self-determination and the islands' British status, dismissing Milei's statements as domestically motivated. Analysts note Milei's move may be a distraction from domestic challenges, including falling popularity and economic austerity.

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Background: Argentina's President Javier Milei has been escalating rhetoric on the Falkland Islands sovereignty claim, leveraging ties with US President Donald Trump amid US-UK tensions over the Iran war. Today: In a televised address on September 3, 2026, Milei announced plans to establish an integrated naval base in Tierra del Fuego and to introduce legislation imposing sanctions on companies involved in unauthorized oil exploration near the Falkland Islands, specifically targeting the Sea Lion oilfield operated by UK's Rockhopper Exploration and Israel's Navitas Petroleum. Milei cited US President Donald Trump's recent remarks suggesting a possible review of US neutrality on the sovereignty dispute, framing them as favorable to Argentina's claim. The UK government, including Defence Secretary Wes Streeting and Prime Minister Andy Burnham's office, reaffirmed its commitment to the Falkland Islanders' right to self-determination and the islands' British status, dismissing Milei's statements as domestically motivated. Analysts note Milei's move may be a distraction from domestic challenges, including falling popularity and economic austerity.

gb43

British Army halts non-essential training exercises due to budget pressures

The British Army has been ordered to stop non-essential collective training exercises in the UK to save money, according to a defence source. Training for units preparing for deployment (e.g., to Estonia, Falklands, Cyprus) continues, but large live-fire exercises and platoon attacks at UK training areas are cancelled. The pause is expected to last most of the year. The move comes amid political pressure on Prime Minister Andy Burnham to increase defence spending beyond the planned 2.5% of GDP, with calls to reach 3% by 2030.

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The British Army has been ordered to stop non-essential collective training exercises in the UK to save money, according to a defence source. Training for units preparing for deployment (e.g., to Estonia, Falklands, Cyprus) continues, but large live-fire exercises and platoon attacks at UK training areas are cancelled. The pause is expected to last most of the year. The move comes amid political pressure on Prime Minister Andy Burnham to increase defence spending beyond the planned 2.5% of GDP, with calls to reach 3% by 2030.

gb43

Channel smuggling gangs shift to 'mega-dinghies' amid crackdown

A BBC investigation reveals that people smuggling gangs are adapting to increased police crackdowns by using larger 'mega-dinghies' and coordinating multiple pickups from French beaches. The gangs are charging higher fees (up to €2,000 per person) and operating in daylight to avoid detection. The UK and France are announcing measures to increase police presence on the French coast to curb crossings.

Show summary

A BBC investigation reveals that people smuggling gangs are adapting to increased police crackdowns by using larger 'mega-dinghies' and coordinating multiple pickups from French beaches. The gangs are charging higher fees (up to €2,000 per person) and operating in daylight to avoid detection. The UK and France are announcing measures to increase police presence on the French coast to curb crossings.

gb39

PwC report reveals stark North-South divide in UK household spending power

A new PwC report finds that 46% of UK households live in areas where economic growth does not translate into improved living standards, highlighting a stark North-South divide in spending power. Northern regions, the Midlands, and Wales have below-average spending power, while London and the South East are above. The findings come as Prime Minister Andy Burnham pledges to tackle regional inequalities, though rising government borrowing costs may constrain his plans.

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A new PwC report finds that 46% of UK households live in areas where economic growth does not translate into improved living standards, highlighting a stark North-South divide in spending power. Northern regions, the Midlands, and Wales have below-average spending power, while London and the South East are above. The findings come as Prime Minister Andy Burnham pledges to tackle regional inequalities, though rising government borrowing costs may constrain his plans.

gb38

UK government seeks to withhold MI5 evidence from Manchester synagogue attack inquests

The UK Home Office has applied for a Public Interest Immunity order to prevent MI5 information from being disclosed publicly during inquests into the deaths of Adrian Daulby and Melvin Cravitz, killed in a terrorist attack on Heaton Park Hebrew Congregation Synagogue in Manchester in October 2025. Lawyers for the victims' families argue the move contradicts official statements that the attacker was unknown to security services, and call for open justice. The coroner may convert the inquests into a public inquiry to allow closed hearings for sensitive material.

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The UK Home Office has applied for a Public Interest Immunity order to prevent MI5 information from being disclosed publicly during inquests into the deaths of Adrian Daulby and Melvin Cravitz, killed in a terrorist attack on Heaton Park Hebrew Congregation Synagogue in Manchester in October 2025. Lawyers for the victims' families argue the move contradicts official statements that the attacker was unknown to security services, and call for open justice. The coroner may convert the inquests into a public inquiry to allow closed hearings for sensitive material.

gb35

Netanyahu's Son Sparks Diplomatic Row with Britain Over Falklands Remarks

Yair Netanyahu, son of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, ignited a diplomatic controversy by asserting that the Falkland Islands belong to Argentina, challenging British sovereignty. His comments drew sharp criticism from British far-right figures, including Rupert Lowe and Tommy Robinson, who viewed it as a strategic misstep alienating a key ally. Netanyahu doubled down, blaming Britain for the Holocaust due to wartime immigration restrictions. The incident occurs amid strained Israel-UK relations over Palestinian state recognition and West Bank settlement policies, with Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar hinting at retaliation if Britain resets its approach.

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Yair Netanyahu, son of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, ignited a diplomatic controversy by asserting that the Falkland Islands belong to Argentina, challenging British sovereignty. His comments drew sharp criticism from British far-right figures, including Rupert Lowe and Tommy Robinson, who viewed it as a strategic misstep alienating a key ally. Netanyahu doubled down, blaming Britain for the Holocaust due to wartime immigration restrictions. The incident occurs amid strained Israel-UK relations over Palestinian state recognition and West Bank settlement policies, with Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar hinting at retaliation if Britain resets its approach.