Five European Countries Jointly Develop Low-Cost Drones: Reshaping the Economics of NATO's Air Defense

In late February 2026, a defense ministers' meeting in Krakow, Poland led to an agreement that could reshape the landscape of European defense. The United Kingdom, Germany, France, Italy, and Poland—the five core European military powers forming the E5 Group—signed a joint statement committing to jointly develop and produce low-cost drones and their corresponding warheads. This initiative, named the Low-cost Effector and Autonomous Platform (LEAP), has a clear objective: to counter Russia's increasingly frequent and inexpensive aerial harassment at an affordable cost. The agreement requires the first projects to be delivered by 2027, signaling that Europe is moving from conceptualization to actual production in its pursuit of defense autonomy.

Technical and Strategic Considerations of the Krakow Protocol

From a technical perspective, the LEAP program aims to develop a one-way attack drone with a range exceeding 500 kilometers. Polish Defense Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz stated after the meeting that the project will be a complete system integrating artificial intelligence, rather than an isolated flight platform. UK Minister of State for Defence Procurement, Luke Pollard, further clarified its positioning: a lightweight, low-cost air defense weapon. This concept stems directly from the realities of the Ukrainian battlefield. Over the past four years, Ukraine has established a domestic drone industry to counter Russian cluster attacks involving hundreds of drones at a time. Traditional air defense systems, such as intercepting drones worth only a few thousand dollars with fighter jets costing tens of millions of euros, have become economically unsustainable.

The deeper reason lies in a series of events that occurred in 2025. From Russian fighter jets over Estonia to dozens of drones intruding into Polish airspace, although the threats were ultimately neutralized, NATO faced criticism for using expensive equipment to counter low-cost targets. The E5 Group's statement indicated that the program would draw on the experience Ukraine gained in defending against Russian air attacks. This means that for the first time, Europe's defense research and development will use real combat data from an ongoing high-intensity conflict as the core design basis.

The Group's Geopolitical and Industrial Considerations

The E5 Group itself is a product of geopolitical changes. It was established in November 2024, following the re-election of Donald Trump as President of the United States, and consists of the five European countries with the highest military expenditures. Its aim is to strengthen defense cooperation within Europe against the backdrop of potentially wavering U.S. security commitments. By the Krakow meeting in February 2026, the mechanism had already held seven meetings, becoming a significant platform for promoting European defense cooperation outside the framework of the European Union.

This drone collaboration also represents an adjustment in the relationship between the UK and the European continent's defense industry following Brexit. Previously, negotiations for the UK's participation in the EU's new 150-billion-euro defense fund broke down because the UK rejected the billions of euros in entry fees proposed by the EU. The LEAP program bypasses the EU's bureaucratic system and funding thresholds, advancing in a five-nation group model, thereby preserving opportunities for UK defense companies to participate in core European joint projects. The UK Ministry of Defence stated that it will enhance cooperation with small technology companies and lower the operational requirements for project participation, reflecting an approach aimed at accelerating research and development.

From an industrial perspective, the agreement requires manufacturers from the five countries to jointly submit proposals and commit to rapid joint production. The specific budget has not yet been disclosed, but Luke Pollard confirmed that each participating country has pledged to invest millions of pounds and millions of euros. This is not merely a procurement agreement; it aims to establish a shared system for research and development, production, and supply chains. Its long-term goal is to reduce Europe's dependence on single-source (especially U.S.) defense technologies and enhance the scale and resilience of the local defense industry.

Autonomous Weapons and the Potential Changes in Future Warfare Rules.

The statement regarding the integration of artificial intelligence in the LEAP program touches upon the legal and ethical boundaries of future warfare. In the large-scale military capability assessment released by the United Kingdom in the summer of 2025, enhancing the use of autonomous drones has been listed as a key focus. The assessment even proposes developing more lenient regulatory frameworks for such autonomous systems, which may signify a departure from the previous stance that required human intervention.

When unmanned aerial systems can independently identify, track, and engage targets through artificial intelligence, the role of humans in the kill chain will be redefined. European countries are jointly advancing such technologies not only to address the immediate threat from Russia but also to lay the technological foundation for the rules of next-generation warfare. The battlefield in Ukraine has become a testing ground for various unmanned autonomous systems, from reconnaissance to attack, with algorithms playing an increasingly significant role. The E5 nations are attempting to ensure technological sovereignty and standard-setting authority in this field through joint research and development, avoiding lagging behind in future military competitions.

The long road to reshaping Europe's security architecture.

This drone cooperation program is a pragmatic attempt by Europe driven by security anxieties. It aims to address not only technical or tactical issues but also the structural contradictions in European defense: a fragmented industrial system, high equipment costs, and excessive reliance on the transatlantic alliance. By focusing on a specific and urgent threat—low-cost aerial attacks—the E5 Group hopes to create a replicable model for cooperation.

However, challenges persist. Coordinating the differing military needs, industrial interests, and export control policies of the five countries is inherently complex. Transforming prototypes into large-scale, interoperable equipment for deployment represents a long-term test of Europe's determination in defense collaboration. Furthermore, effectively integrating such cooperative outcomes into NATO's overall defense architecture to avoid capability duplication or command barriers requires meticulous political and military coordination.

On the conference table in Krakow lies not just a drone development agreement, but a draft on how Europe will defend its economy and strategy in the future. When the cost of war can be measured by simple arithmetic, the balance of victory begins to tilt toward the side that can better endure attrition. European nations are learning this lesson, and their classroom is the extended trenches and urban ruins of eastern Ukraine. This path to autonomy has only just begun, and its destination will determine whether Europe becomes a player with strategic will in the future international order, or a dependent relying on others for security.