The Syrian government and Kurdish forces have reached an integration agreement: a critical turning point in the Damascus unification process.

On January 30, 2026, the Syrian Transitional Government and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) signed a comprehensive agreement, transforming the fragile ceasefire into a permanent one and establishing a framework for integrating Kurdish armed forces into state institutions. This agreement, achieved through intensive diplomatic mediation by U.S. and French forces, temporarily ended the intense conflict that had lasted nearly a month and effectively concluded the decade-long autonomous practice of the Kurds in northeastern Syria. Although the signing took place away from the front lines, the core of the agreement directly targeted the last strongholds under SDF control—Hasakah Province and Qamishli City. For President Ahmed Shara, who came to power after the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad at the end of last year, this marks a crucial step toward unifying the national territory and consolidating central authority. For the Kurds, this represents a difficult compromise made to avoid genocide following military setbacks and the withdrawal of U.S. support.

Military reality and the specific terms of the agreement.

The battlefield situation over the past three weeks forms the basis for understanding this agreement. In early January 2026, the Syrian government forces launched a large-scale offensive in the northeast without opposition from the United States. The offensive first unfolded in two Kurdish residential areas in Aleppo province and then rapidly advanced eastward. The government forces and their allied Arab tribal militias achieved breakthrough progress in Raqqa and Deir ez-Zor provinces. The SDF opted for a strategic retreat in these predominantly Arab-populated regions, with their controlled territory shrinking by approximately 80% within a short period. By late January, the government forces had seized the region's major oil fields, hydropower stations, and prisons holding thousands of Islamic State (IS) prisoners, completing the encirclement of Kobani—a symbol of Kurdish resistance. The SDF forces were compressed into final urban areas with an absolute Kurdish majority, such as Hasakah province and Qamishli city, making a brutal siege appear imminent.

The agreement reached under this military pressure clearly reflects the balance of power in its terms. According to the agreement text, armed forces from both sides will withdraw from the northeastern frontlines. Government security forces under the Syrian Ministry of Interior will enter the central areas of the two Kurdish core cities, Hasakah and Qamishli. In terms of military integration, the SDF will be incorporated into the Syrian government forces in phases. The agreement creatively establishes new military formations: three SDF brigades will form a new military division under the Aleppo province, while the SDF forces in the isolated Kobani pocket in the west will form an independent brigade. Kurdish officials emphasize that the commanders of these units will be Kurds. Additionally, the agreement stipulates that the Syrian government will take control of all border crossings (including the Semalka crossing to northern Iraq) and civilian institutions. The Kurdish autonomous administration and its civil servants will be integrated into Syrian state institutions.

Strategic Considerations: Calculations and Compromises of All Parties

This agreement did not emerge out of thin air; it is the product of complex strategic interests and multi-party negotiations. For the Syrian transitional government, its primary objective is to restore the state's sovereign control over all territories. Since the outbreak of the civil war in 2011, this is the first time a central authority has emerged in Syria with the potential to achieve this goal. Controlling the northeastern region, which accounts for one-quarter of the country's territory, means gaining control over the vast majority of Syria's oil resources and crucial agricultural areas. This is vital for post-war reconstruction and national finances. Furthermore, eliminating an autonomous entity with its own independent armed forces and administrative system is an inevitable choice to prevent the country from fragmenting again. The decree issued by President Shala after taking office in December 2024, granting official status to the Kurdish language, can be seen as a conciliatory move to lay the political groundwork for this integration.

For the Kurdish leadership, signing the agreement was a reluctant choice—the lesser of two evils. Senior SDF official Ilham Ahmed stated plainly that the agreement was signed to prevent genocide against the Kurdish people. The Kurds' predicament stems from a shift in their geopolitical backing. During the war against IS, the SDF was the United States' most reliable ground ally, receiving substantial funding, weapons, and air support. However, with the Shala government replacing the Assad regime, U.S. policy underwent a fundamental shift. Washington began supporting Shala's efforts to unify the country and remained silent during the recent offensive by government forces. The Kurds felt betrayed, losing their most crucial external protection. Faced with military collapse and isolation, negotiating to retain some military structure and cultural rights became the only viable way to limit losses.

The roles of the United States and France are particularly critical. U.S. Special Envoy for Syria Tom Barak described this agreement as a historic milestone, having conducted intensive mediation between the two sides over the past two weeks. The U.S. strategic focus has shifted from supporting Kurdish autonomy to stabilizing the situation in Syria, preventing it from falling back into full-scale civil war and thus avoiding the resurgence of terrorist organizations like ISIS. French President Emmanuel Macron also stated that he would fully support the implementation of the agreement. As guarantors of the agreement, the commitments of France and the United States serve as crucial psychological assurance for the Kurds to accept the terms. They hope that external forces will oversee the integration process to prevent Damascus from reneging afterward.

Regional Impact and Future Challenges

The signing of the agreement has temporarily dispelled the specter of a full-scale war erupting in northeastern Syria, but its long-term impact and implementation process are fraught with uncertainty. The most immediate consequence is the end of the social experiment with distinct democratic confederalist characteristics that the Kurds have practiced in the Rojava region since 2012. There, efforts were made to establish a governance system based on gender equality and the separation of religion and politics, featuring an independent women's armed force (YPJ). These are irreconcilable with the more religiously oriented centralized model pursued by the Assad government. The vague provisions in the agreement regarding civil and educational rights raise significant doubts about whether Kurdish linguistic and cultural rights, as well as women's rights, can be safeguarded in practice. How the female fighters of the YPJ will be integrated into a Syrian government military that does not accept women has not even been discussed in detail in the agreement.

The reactions of regional countries are worth observing. Turkey has long viewed the Syrian Kurdish armed forces as a branch of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) within its borders and has consistently demanded the elimination of their autonomous presence. The agreement weakens the Kurdish autonomous entity, aligning with Ankara's interests, and Turkish Foreign Minister Fidan has stated that Turkey will study the agreement. Iran has similarly expressed support for Syria's unity and peace. However, the implementation of the agreement may trigger new tensions. Government forces have taken over camps holding tens of thousands of IS members and their families. Any lapses in the security management of these facilities could lead to the resurgence and spillover of extremist forces, threatening the security of the entire region.

The deeper challenge lies in the lack of trust and the complexity of implementation. There is a fundamental lack of trust between the Kurds and the Damascus government. A shopkeeper in Qamishli, Abu Ali, expressed concern about the massacres of Alawites and Druze in Damascus, Suwayda, and coastal areas after Islamists came to power. Lars Hauch, an expert at Conflict Mediation Solutions Consulting, pointed out that the agreement remains vague on critical issues of administrative and security decentralization. Practical challenges, such as how to truly integrate originally hostile armed forces under the same banner and how to properly accommodate tens of thousands of former civilian staff from autonomous institutions within the national framework, are just beginning. Historical experience shows that such integration agreements often stall or even break down during the implementation of details. The path to Syria's unity remains long and fraught with thorns, even after gaining control of the northeast.

Epilogue

The smoke of battle has temporarily cleared, but the land in northeastern Syria still carries the scent of petroleum, unexploded ordnance, and shattered dreams. The bullet holes in the walls of Kobani have not yet weathered, yet a new map of power has already been drawn. This agreement is not an endpoint, but the beginning of a more complex political process. It replaces potential bloodshed with a document, delivering a symbolic victory to Damascus while preserving a glimmer of hope for the Kurds. However, translating the terms on paper into tangible realities on the ground requires political wisdom that goes beyond battlefield victories, as well as the enduring commitment of all parties—including the guarantors far away in Washington and Paris—to their promises. The story of Syria has never lacked twists and turns; what it lacks is genuine reconciliation.