In-depth Analysis of Iran's Situation at the Beginning of the Year: The Regime's Dilemma Amidst Internal and External Challenges

From late 2025 to early 2026, Iran is experiencing a comprehensive systemic crisis. Nationwide protests triggered by a severe economic collapse continue to escalate, rapidly evolving from livelihood demands into political confrontation. Within the regime, divisions between reformists and conservatives have intensified, and the ruling foundation of the Supreme Leader Khamenei has begun to loosen. Externally, the U.S. and Israel are leveraging the situation to increase pressure, waging information warfare and conducting intelligence infiltration, while the distancing of Russia-Iran relations has left Iran diplomatically isolated. Under the intertwining of multiple contradictions, Iran stands at a crossroads determining the nation's fate. The direction of its situation is not only crucial for domestic stability but will also profoundly reshape the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East. From late 2025 to early 2026, Iran is experiencing a comprehensive systemic crisis. Nationwide protests triggered by a severe economic collapse continue to escalate, rapidly evolving from livelihood demands into political confrontation. Within the regime, divisions between reformists and conservatives have intensified, and the ruling foundation of the Supreme Leader Khamenei has begun to loosen. Externally, the U.S. and Israel are leveraging the situation to increase pressure, waging information warfare and conducting intelligence infiltration, while the distancing of Russia-Iran relations has left Iran diplomatically isolated. Under the intertwining of multiple contradictions, Iran stands at a crossroads determining the nation's fate. The direction of its situation is not only crucial for domestic stability but will also profoundly reshape the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East.

I. Core Trigger: Comprehensive Economic Collapse, Breach of Livelihood Bottom Line

The Iranian economy has now fallen into an irreversible state of collapse. The data from the end of 2025 pushed the livelihood crisis to its extreme, becoming the direct trigger for igniting social unrest. As of December 2025, the officially announced inflation rate had reached 42.5%, with food prices surging by 72% year-on-year, medical supplies prices rising by 50%. The sharp increase in basic living necessities has become unbearable for ordinary citizens. Currency depreciation has formed a vicious cycle; the exchange rate of the Iranian Rial against the US dollar plummeted from 817,500 at the beginning of 2025 to 1.42 million, accumulating a depreciation of approximately 330% over three years. Meanwhile, the average monthly household income is only 250-300 US dollars, while the basic cost of survival is as high as 400-600 US dollars, leaving most families struggling even to meet basic food and shelter needs. The Iranian economy has now fallen into an irreversible state of collapse. The data from the end of 2025 pushed the livelihood crisis to its extreme, becoming the direct trigger for igniting social unrest. As of December 2025, the officially announced inflation rate had reached 42.5%, with food prices surging by 72% year-on-year, medical supplies prices rising by 50%. The sharp increase in basic living necessities has become unbearable for ordinary citizens. Currency depreciation has formed a vicious cycle; the exchange rate of the Iranian Rial against the US dollar plummeted from 817,500 at the beginning of 2025 to 1.42 million, accumulating a depreciation of approximately 330% over three years. Meanwhile, the average monthly household income is only 250-300 US dollars, while the basic cost of survival is as high as 400-600 US dollars, leaving most families struggling even to meet basic food and shelter needs.

世界银行评估显示，2025年伊朗经济已萎缩1.7%，2026年预计将进一步萎缩2.8%，经济下行压力持续加大。这种崩溃并非单纯源于外部制裁，更核心的是内部**“军-金-权”复合结构The chronic ailment. After the United States withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal in 2018, Iranian oil was labeled as "high-risk," and its banks were excluded.SWIFT清算网络**，正规石油出口、跨境金融几乎完全阻断，2025年石油出口收入降至billion dollars，仅为2011年的一半，只能靠改船名、关信号等灰色手段求生。而伊朗 The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (and various religious foundations have formed super-chaebols that control more than half of the country's economic resources.，通过特许工程、影子舰队、关税豁免垄断利益，仅燃料走私一项每天就达10,000 to 100,000 liters，每年损失- billion US dollars潜在收入，任何触及这些利益集团的改革都难以推进，形成“Stability maintenance relies on interest groups—reforms are obstructed—people's livelihoods deteriorate.”的死循环。

II. Escalation of Social Unrest: From Livelihood Protests to Political Confrontation, a Wave of Unrest Sweeping Across the Nation

The complete economic collapse directly triggered Iran's The largest social unrest in three years.. On December 28, 2025, merchants in Tehran initiated a shutdown protest due to business difficulties, which rapidly spread to approximately Approximately provinces, cities, and locations across the country, lasting over Eight days. Unlike previous incidents, the demands of this protest quickly escalated from initially addressing economic issues to explicitly calling for The Supreme Leader Khamenei steps down.. In some areas, slogans even emerged supporting The restoration of the former Pahlavi dynasty.. Protesters clashed directly with security forces, leading to violent acts such as storming police stations and attacking Revolutionary Guard bases. Unofficial data indicates the death toll from this round of protests has risen to man. The complete economic collapse directly triggered Iran's The largest social unrest in three years.. On December 28, 2025, merchants in Tehran initiated a shutdown protest due to business difficulties, which rapidly spread to approximately Approximately provinces, cities, and locations across the country, lasting over Eight days. Unlike previous incidents, the demands of this protest quickly escalated from initially addressing economic issues to explicitly calling for The Supreme Leader Khamenei steps down.. In some areas, slogans even emerged supporting The restoration of the former Pahlavi dynasty.. Protesters clashed directly with security forces, leading to violent acts such as storming police stations and attacking Revolutionary Guard bases. Unofficial data indicates the death toll from this round of protests has risen to man.

Facing waves of protests, the Iranian government has continued the **"internet shutdown + live ammunition"The patterned suppression tactics. Looking back, during the protests triggered by the oil price hike in the year and month, the death toll may have approached1500 people**; In the first 9 months of 2025, Iran carried out at least Death penalty, setting the highest annual figure in 15 years, with Person executed in October alone. Many sentences were hastily carried out under vague charges of "endangering national security," lacking due process. Beyond economic pressures, Intergenerational and Gender Conflicts have further intensified social divisions: the younger generation, raised in the internet era and exposed to global multiculturalism, finds the system still attempting to regulate their clothing and behavior with an ascetic ethic from over 40 years ago. The issue of headscarves has become a symbolic struggle over "where power belongs." The protests sparked by The death of Mahsa Amini have yet to subside, yet the government has systematically tightened policies targeting women and girls, further eroding the younger generation's sense of national identity. More alarmingly, public Legitimacy trust has significantly eroded. towards the regime. The official participation rate in the 2024 parliamentary elections was only 41%, the lowest since the 1979 revolution, and the first-round turnout in the presidential election was also around 40%. Apathy and abstention have become a silent rejection of the existing political process by the people. Facing waves of protests, the Iranian government has continued the **"internet shutdown + live ammunition"The patterned suppression tactics. Looking back, during the protests triggered by the oil price hike in the year and month, the death toll may have approached1500 people**; In the first 9 months of 2025, Iran carried out at least Death penalty, setting the highest annual figure in 15 years, with Person executed in October alone. Many sentences were hastily carried out under vague charges of "endangering national security," lacking due process. Beyond economic pressures, Intergenerational and Gender Conflicts have further intensified social divisions: the younger generation, raised in the internet era and exposed to global multiculturalism, finds the system still attempting to regulate their clothing and behavior with an ascetic ethic from over 40 years ago. The issue of headscarves has become a symbolic struggle over "where power belongs." The protests sparked by The death of Mahsa Amini have yet to subside, yet the government has systematically tightened policies targeting women and girls, further eroding the younger generation's sense of national identity. More alarmingly, public Legitimacy trust has significantly eroded. towards the regime. The official participation rate in the 2024 parliamentary elections was only 41%, the lowest since the 1979 revolution, and the first-round turnout in the presidential election was also around 40%. Apathy and abstention have become a silent rejection of the existing political process by the people.

III. Internal Crisis of the Regime: Intensifying Divisions and "Exile Rumors," Weakening the Foundation of Rule

Behind the external turmoil lies the Severe Division and the Shaking of the Ruling Core within the Iranian regime. A clear opposition has formed within the current regime: the reformist faction represented by President Pezeshkian, which initially hoped to respond to the crisis moderately and promote internal reforms, once ordered the Ministry of Interior to engage in dialogue with protesters; while the conservative faction represented by Speaker of the Parliament Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf insists on a strong suppression stance and currently still holds the dominant power in dealing with the protests. The first public speech by the Supreme Leader Khamenei became the key to setting the tone of the situation. He characterized the protests as "Acts by foreign-backed instigators", urged security forces to take stricter measures, and at the same time attempted to distinguish between "legitimate protests" and "riots", demanding officials treat them differently, ultimately determining the strategy of "Adopting a dual approach to divide and weaken the protest forces.". However, this ambiguous stance instead highlights the leadership's Hesitation and Passivity. Behind the external turmoil lies the Severe Division and the Shaking of the Ruling Core within the Iranian regime. A clear opposition has formed within the current regime: the reformist faction represented by President Pezeshkian, which initially hoped to respond to the crisis moderately and promote internal reforms, once ordered the Ministry of Interior to engage in dialogue with protesters; while the conservative faction represented by Speaker of the Parliament Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf insists on a strong suppression stance and currently still holds the dominant power in dealing with the protests. The first public speech by the Supreme Leader Khamenei became the key to setting the tone of the situation. He characterized the protests as "Acts by foreign-backed instigators", urged security forces to take stricter measures, and at the same time attempted to distinguish between "legitimate protests" and "riots", demanding officials treat them differently, ultimately determining the strategy of "Adopting a dual approach to divide and weaken the protest forces.". However, this ambiguous stance instead highlights the leadership's Hesitation and Passivity.

More shockingly, Western media reports suggest that Khamenei has formulated a "Plan" Emergency Evacuation Plan: due to the poor health of the 86-year-old Khamenei, and the occurrence of Desertion, Defection, and Disobedience of Orders within the military and police forces responsible for suppression, along with a Centrifugal tendency within the Revolutionary Guards, if the security forces cannot control the situation, he may follow the example of President of Syria, Assad and flee to Moscow with 20 family members and core personnel for refuge. His assets are suspected to have begun transferring overseas. Although this rumor has not been officially confirmed, it forms a stark historical contrast with the 1979 Islamic Revolution—back then, the people abandoned the Pahlavi dynasty and chose Khomeini, yet nearly 50 years later, they are shouting the slogan "Return to the King," reflecting public disappointment with the current regime. Furthermore, the regime's survival crisis is also evident in Deep governance failure: the government invests substantial funds in proxy wars in places like Gaza, Lebanon, Yemen, neglecting domestic livelihoods; diplomatically, it is increasingly isolated, with its main ally Russia providing limited assistance, while Gulf Arab countries are pleased to see its Shia hegemony crumble; President Pezeshkian's economic advisor even suggested he Openly cutting ties with Khamenei., shifting the responsibility for key decisions to the Supreme Leader. Behind this "self-preservation advice" lies panic and division within the regime. To address the crisis, Iran's Revolutionary Guards conducted missile tests to "show strength," and the authorities have taken measures such as replacing the central bank governor and distributing a monthly $7 allowance to citizens, but the effects have yet to materialize, making it difficult to reverse the situation. More shockingly, Western media reports suggest that Khamenei has formulated a "Plan" Emergency Evacuation Plan: due to the poor health of the 86-year-old Khamenei, and the occurrence of Desertion, Defection, and Disobedience of Orders within the military and police forces responsible for suppression, along with a Centrifugal tendency within the Revolutionary Guards, if the security forces cannot control the situation, he may follow the example of President of Syria, Assad and flee to Moscow with 20 family members and core personnel for refuge. His assets are suspected to have begun transferring overseas. Although this rumor has not been officially confirmed, it forms a stark historical contrast with the 1979 Islamic Revolution—back then, the people abandoned the Pahlavi dynasty and chose Khomeini, yet nearly 50 years later, they are shouting the slogan "Return to the King," reflecting public disappointment with the current regime. Furthermore, the regime's survival crisis is also evident in Deep governance failure: the government invests substantial funds in proxy wars in places like Gaza, Lebanon, Yemen, neglecting domestic livelihoods; diplomatically, it is increasingly isolated, with its main ally Russia providing limited assistance, while Gulf Arab countries are pleased to see its Shia hegemony crumble; President Pezeshkian's economic advisor even suggested he Openly cutting ties with Khamenei., shifting the responsibility for key decisions to the Supreme Leader. Behind this "self-preservation advice" lies panic and division within the regime. To address the crisis, Iran's Revolutionary Guards conducted missile tests to "show strength," and the authorities have taken measures such as replacing the central bank governor and distributing a monthly $7 allowance to citizens, but the effects have yet to materialize, making it difficult to reverse the situation.

IV. Escalation of External Intervention: U.S.-Israel Pressure and Russia-Iran Estrangement, Diplomatic Deadlock Unsolvable

Iran's internal crisis has become a Window period for external forces to intervene, and the increased pressure from the United States and Israel has exacerbated an already severe situation. Taking advantage of Iran's internal turmoil, the U.S. and Israel have simultaneously launched Public opinion warfare, psychological warfare, and intelligence infiltration.: Western media deliberately amplified rumors of "Khamenei's exile" to shake the regime's foundation; Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and U.S. President Trump reached a consensus. Netanyahu called on Iranian protesters, saying they are "at a moment of deciding their own destiny," while Trump threatened on social media that if the Iranian government kills demonstrators, the United States will "step in to help," claiming to be "fully armed and ready to act." Furthermore, there are reports that the U.S. and Israel have discussed the possibility of to carry out strikes against Iran this year.. Trump also declared that he would "completely destroy" Iran's ballistic missile program and would support an "immediate" strike if Iran restarts its nuclear capabilities. Iran's internal crisis has become a Window period for external forces to intervene, and the increased pressure from the United States and Israel has exacerbated an already severe situation. Taking advantage of Iran's internal turmoil, the U.S. and Israel have simultaneously launched Public opinion warfare, psychological warfare, and intelligence infiltration.: Western media deliberately amplified rumors of "Khamenei's exile" to shake the regime's foundation; Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and U.S. President Trump reached a consensus. Netanyahu called on Iranian protesters, saying they are "at a moment of deciding their own destiny," while Trump threatened on social media that if the Iranian government kills demonstrators, the United States will "step in to help," claiming to be "fully armed and ready to act." Furthermore, there are reports that the U.S. and Israel have discussed the possibility of to carry out strikes against Iran this year.. Trump also declared that he would "completely destroy" Iran's ballistic missile program and would support an "immediate" strike if Iran restarts its nuclear capabilities.

In addition to exerting public opinion pressure, the United States and Israel have also launched "Color Revolution"-style hybrid warfare. Their intelligence agencies are accused of infiltrating Iran, bribing officials, providing cyber support, and spreading subversive information. The United States also plans to fully support Israel in disarming Hamas and to reactivate military strike options against Iran. However, it is noteworthy that Netanyahu privately asked Russian President Putin to convey a message to Tehran, stating that Israel currently has no intention of escalating the situation or attacking Iran, fearing that Iran might make a strategic miscalculation and launch a "preemptive attack" first. This The contrast between public toughness and private "avoidance of conflict." reflects the caution of the U.S. and Israel regarding direct conflict. Meanwhile, Russia, which Iran could have relied on, has seen its bilateral relationship with Iran become distant due to diverging interests. Although Putin spoke with Pezeshkian on December 30, 2025, discussing energy, infrastructure cooperation, and the Iranian nuclear issue, Russia finds it difficult to provide substantial assistance. It might only invest effort to prevent Iran from "changing its political landscape" because "the collapse of the current Iranian regime would impact its Middle East strategy." In addition to exerting public opinion pressure, the United States and Israel have also launched "Color Revolution"-style hybrid warfare. Their intelligence agencies are accused of infiltrating Iran, bribing officials, providing cyber support, and spreading subversive information. The United States also plans to fully support Israel in disarming Hamas and to reactivate military strike options against Iran. However, it is noteworthy that Netanyahu privately asked Russian President Putin to convey a message to Tehran, stating that Israel currently has no intention of escalating the situation or attacking Iran, fearing that Iran might make a strategic miscalculation and launch a "preemptive attack" first. This The contrast between public toughness and private "avoidance of conflict." reflects the caution of the U.S. and Israel regarding direct conflict. Meanwhile, Russia, which Iran could have relied on, has seen its bilateral relationship with Iran become distant due to diverging interests. Although Putin spoke with Pezeshkian on December 30, 2025, discussing energy, infrastructure cooperation, and the Iranian nuclear issue, Russia finds it difficult to provide substantial assistance. It might only invest effort to prevent Iran from "changing its political landscape" because "the collapse of the current Iranian regime would impact its Middle East strategy."

To make matters worse, Iran's Diplomatic credibility has completely collapsed., making it difficult to seek external support. Previously, during the Gaza conflict, Iran only verbally condemned Hamas, providing limited substantive assistance. After Hamas leader Haniyeh was assassinated in Tehran, Iranian officials were eager to distance themselves. Lebanese Hezbollah leader Nasrallah was precisely targeted and killed while meeting with Iranian advisors, with intelligence suspected to have been leaked internally. On the Syrian battlefield, 4,000 Revolutionary Guards fled without fighting, criticized for "betraying their allies." More seriously, in exchange for U.S. concessions in the nuclear negotiations, Iran handed over the business records of dozens of Chinese companies in Iran to the United States, which became the trigger for The Huawei Meng Wanzhou Incident, completely exhausting China's trust. Currently, Iran is stuck in the awkward situation of "Want to surrender, but the U.S. and Israel won't accept; want to resist, but can't bear to shed blood; want to seek allies, but have already lost credibility.", with its diplomatic predicament further exacerbating internal crises. To make matters worse, Iran's Diplomatic credibility has completely collapsed., making it difficult to seek external support. Previously, during the Gaza conflict, Iran only verbally condemned Hamas, providing limited substantive assistance. After Hamas leader Haniyeh was assassinated in Tehran, Iranian officials were eager to distance themselves. Lebanese Hezbollah leader Nasrallah was precisely targeted and killed while meeting with Iranian advisors, with intelligence suspected to have been leaked internally. On the Syrian battlefield, 4,000 Revolutionary Guards fled without fighting, criticized for "betraying their allies." More seriously, in exchange for U.S. concessions in the nuclear negotiations, Iran handed over the business records of dozens of Chinese companies in Iran to the United States, which became the trigger for The Huawei Meng Wanzhou Incident, completely exhausting China's trust. Currently, Iran is stuck in the awkward situation of "Want to surrender, but the U.S. and Israel won't accept; want to resist, but can't bear to shed blood; want to seek allies, but have already lost credibility.", with its diplomatic predicament further exacerbating internal crises.

V. Future Outlook: Four Major Game Points Determine the Direction of the Situation, and the "Cannot Show Weakness" Paradox Remains Difficult to Resolve

The direction of the current situation in Iran depends fundamentally on the interplay of Four Major Points of Contention: First, whether the Iranian government can effectively alleviate socio-economic contradictions while suppressing protests, though without addressing vested interest groups, any economic measures are unlikely to solve the root problems; second, whether domestic opposition forces (including exiled figures like Prince Reza Pahlavi) can coalesce into an effective political force, as the opposition remains fragmented and lacks unified leadership; third, how external powers (the U.S. and Israel) balance intervention with avoiding direct conflict, with their core demand being Contain Iran's nuclear capabilities and regional influence., not full-scale occupation, making "Maximum Pressure + Proxy Intervention" a likely primary approach; fourth, potential shifts in the regional landscape—if the current regime collapses, it could lead to the Middle East The Shiite "Axis of Resistance" is disintegrating., reshaping the geopolitical order; if the regime stabilizes, it may further intensify internal control and external confrontation. The direction of the current situation in Iran depends fundamentally on the interplay of Four Major Points of Contention: First, whether the Iranian government can effectively alleviate socio-economic contradictions while suppressing protests, though without addressing vested interest groups, any economic measures are unlikely to solve the root problems; second, whether domestic opposition forces (including exiled figures like Prince Reza Pahlavi) can coalesce into an effective political force, as the opposition remains fragmented and lacks unified leadership; third, how external powers (the U.S. and Israel) balance intervention with avoiding direct conflict, with their core demand being Contain Iran's nuclear capabilities and regional influence., not full-scale occupation, making "Maximum Pressure + Proxy Intervention" a likely primary approach; fourth, potential shifts in the regional landscape—if the current regime collapses, it could lead to the Middle East The Shiite "Axis of Resistance" is disintegrating., reshaping the geopolitical order; if the regime stabilizes, it may further intensify internal control and external confrontation.

从本质上看，伊朗正陷入 The Unsolvable Paradox of "Cannot Show Weakness"：经济崩溃、社会动荡、外交失信的多重压力集中于国内，政权的第一反应是强硬镇压与对外示强；但越是强硬，经济改革空间越被压缩，民众不满越强烈，统治合法性越流失，形成“The tougher, the hollower.”的恶性循环。有观点将伊朗比作“外表坚固、内部支柱逐渐锈蚀的大厦”，表面仍有武力和行政机器应对危机，但每一次强硬度过危机，都以牺牲未来的合法性、经济活力、社会信任为代价。对于伊朗而言，当前最核心的问题是内部 Structural contradictions，“军-金-权”复合体对经济的垄断、政治体制的僵化、社会认同的流失，并非更换领导人就能解决。未来伊朗若想突破困境，必须 Breaking the monopoly of interest groups and rebuilding social consensus.，但在当前内外压力下，这样的突破显得遥不可及。中东的“抵抗轴心”是否会随伊朗变局落幕，哈梅内伊主导的政权能否挺过此次危机，仍有待时间检验，但可以肯定的是，这个文明古国正站在命运的关键十字路口，每一步选择都将决定其未来走向。