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US Cuts Korea Drills, Ties Alliance to Iran Help
Washington tied a last-minute reduction in US-South Korea exercises to Seoul's refusal to support the Iran war, even as the Hormuz campaign strained American weapons and economic leverage. Water-system attacks and record financial leverage show the same problem at home: security commitments are being repriced faster than resilience can be rebuilt.
Weekly briefBritain's Emergencies Become Fight Over Who Pays
Record drought and more than 1,000 wildfires forced Britain to deploy soldiers and promise new resilience just as an energy shock slowed growth. Reform UK's £50 billion welfare plan and the revolt over prison releases exposed the same political choice: when capacity is scarce, government must decide whose protection becomes conditional.
Weekly briefFrance's Referees Become Political Actors
The Constitutional Council rewrote the boundaries of assisted dying and struck down an under-15 social-media ban, while Viginum told presidential candidates not to amplify Russian attacks. With unemployment at 8.3 percent and a tax-data breach affecting 678,000 people, institutions meant to referee politics are being pulled into the campaign itself.
Weekly briefGermany Expands Cyber Powers After Drone Threat
An explosive drone at Leipzig prompted a 700-page plan for preventive cyber operations, while parties weakened political firewalls against the AfD and the Rhine forced freight back onto old rail wagons. Germany is responding to external and domestic pressure by enlarging state discretion, but its fragmented politics may deny those powers lasting legitimacy.
Weekly briefUkraine's Best Military Week Won't Secure Winter
Kyiv reported 745 square kilometres retaken and used domestic missiles against a Russian rocket plant, yet it entered the next phase of the war with only a fraction of the Patriot coverage it needs. Russia's winter threat, a 76 percent collapse in grain exports and mass civilian detention show why tactical initiative has not restored strategic safety.
Weekly briefTurkey Expands Alliances, Tightens Cyber Controls
Ankara invited Egypt toward a new defence pact with Saudi Arabia and Pakistan while transferring surveillance and censorship powers to an agency under the presidency. The opposition splintered around the imprisoned Ekrem İmamoğlu and a new Kurdish initiative advanced, giving Erdoğan more regional options and more domestic control at the same time.
Weekly briefAll Events
Every other event tracked today, with a one-line preview. Click Show summary to read more.
us48US national debt surpasses $40 trillion for first time
The US gross national debt has surpassed $40 trillion for the first time, according to Treasury data, exceeding earlier forecasts and doubling in under a decade. The milestone has sparked bipartisan criticism, with Democrats blaming the Trump administration's tax cuts and spending, while Republicans call for fiscal restraint. Rising interest costs, now exceeding $1.2 trillion annually and surpassing defense spending, are straining the federal budget and raising concerns about higher borrowing costs for households and businesses. The debt ceiling looms, and economists warn of a 'flashing yellow light' for fiscal sustainability, with global implications as higher US yields affect international borrowing costs.
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US national debt surpasses $40 trillion for first time
The US gross national debt has surpassed $40 trillion for the first time, according to Treasury data, exceeding earlier forecasts and doubling in under a decade. The milestone has sparked bipartisan criticism, with Democrats blaming the Trump administration's tax cuts and spending, while Republicans call for fiscal restraint. Rising interest costs, now exceeding $1.2 trillion annually and surpassing defense spending, are straining the federal budget and raising concerns about higher borrowing costs for households and businesses. The debt ceiling looms, and economists warn of a 'flashing yellow light' for fiscal sustainability, with global implications as higher US yields affect international borrowing costs.
The US gross national debt has surpassed $40 trillion for the first time, according to Treasury data, exceeding earlier forecasts and doubling in under a decade. The milestone has sparked bipartisan criticism, with Democrats blaming the Trump administration's tax cuts and spending, while Republicans call for fiscal restraint. Rising interest costs, now exceeding $1.2 trillion annually and surpassing defense spending, are straining the federal budget and raising concerns about higher borrowing costs for households and businesses. The debt ceiling looms, and economists warn of a 'flashing yellow light' for fiscal sustainability, with global implications as higher US yields affect international borrowing costs.
ua48ISW: Russia launches massive strike, drones breach NATO airspace, as Ukraine continues oil infrastructure campaign
Background: ISW previously reported on Ukrainian counteroffensive advances in the Oleksandrivka direction, Ukrainian strikes on Russian satellite communications and ballistic missile infrastructure, and Russian long-range drone strikes on Ukraine. New development: On August 19-20, 2026, Russia launched a massive combined drone and missile strike on Ukraine, with drones penetrating Moldovan and Romanian airspace and a naval drone destroyed near a Romanian gas platform. The Kremlin is likely to militarize society via Duma elections, and Russia faces inadequate responses to gasoline shortages. Ukrainian long-range strikes continue against Russian oil infrastructure. Russian forces recently advanced in northern Sumy Oblast and in the Pokrovsk direction.
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ISW: Russia launches massive strike, drones breach NATO airspace, as Ukraine continues oil infrastructure campaign
Background: ISW previously reported on Ukrainian counteroffensive advances in the Oleksandrivka direction, Ukrainian strikes on Russian satellite communications and ballistic missile infrastructure, and Russian long-range drone strikes on Ukraine. New development: On August 19-20, 2026, Russia launched a massive combined drone and missile strike on Ukraine, with drones penetrating Moldovan and Romanian airspace and a naval drone destroyed near a Romanian gas platform. The Kremlin is likely to militarize society via Duma elections, and Russia faces inadequate responses to gasoline shortages. Ukrainian long-range strikes continue against Russian oil infrastructure. Russian forces recently advanced in northern Sumy Oblast and in the Pokrovsk direction.
Background: ISW previously reported on Ukrainian counteroffensive advances in the Oleksandrivka direction, Ukrainian strikes on Russian satellite communications and ballistic missile infrastructure, and Russian long-range drone strikes on Ukraine. New development: On August 19-20, 2026, Russia launched a massive combined drone and missile strike on Ukraine, with drones penetrating Moldovan and Romanian airspace and a naval drone destroyed near a Romanian gas platform. The Kremlin is likely to militarize society via Duma elections, and Russia faces inadequate responses to gasoline shortages. Ukrainian long-range strikes continue against Russian oil infrastructure. Russian forces recently advanced in northern Sumy Oblast and in the Pokrovsk direction.
tr48Israel strikes Syrian airbase, warns Turkey against military presence
Israel conducted airstrikes on the Abu al-Duhur airbase in Syria, claiming it was to prevent a Turkish military buildup. The strike drew criticism from the US, Turkey, and Syria, with Turkey denying any military presence and Syria calling the attack unjustified. The incident has heightened tensions between Israel and Turkey over Syria, with the US seeking a deconfliction mechanism.
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Israel strikes Syrian airbase, warns Turkey against military presence
Israel conducted airstrikes on the Abu al-Duhur airbase in Syria, claiming it was to prevent a Turkish military buildup. The strike drew criticism from the US, Turkey, and Syria, with Turkey denying any military presence and Syria calling the attack unjustified. The incident has heightened tensions between Israel and Turkey over Syria, with the US seeking a deconfliction mechanism.
Israel conducted airstrikes on the Abu al-Duhur airbase in Syria, claiming it was to prevent a Turkish military buildup. The strike drew criticism from the US, Turkey, and Syria, with Turkey denying any military presence and Syria calling the attack unjustified. The incident has heightened tensions between Israel and Turkey over Syria, with the US seeking a deconfliction mechanism.
ua46Russia's Black Sea blockade cripples Ukraine's grain exports, Turkey proposes ceasefire rejected by Moscow
Background: Since mid-July, Russian missile and drone strikes have brought Ukraine's Black Sea grain corridor to a near-standstill, with no ships passing on July 22 and the UN Security Council convening an emergency meeting. Today: Russia's campaign has intensified, with over 180 attacks on Odesa ports in the first half of 2026, nearly matching the total for all of 2025, and a major August 9 strike. In July alone, Ukraine recorded 67 strikes on port facilities and dozens on vessels, including the July 19 attack on the Turkish-owned bulk carrier Golden Leo, which killed ten and later sank. Ship traffic has collapsed, with only seven vessels entering in the first 11 days of August, and Ukraine's agricultural exports are set to nearly halve in August to 1.5-1.6 million tonnes, costing $450-500 million monthly. Alternative routes via the Danube and EU can handle only about 1.4 million tonnes per month, constrained by drought and low water levels. Turkey proposed a Black Sea ceasefire, but Russia rejected it, with Foreign Minister Lavrov ruling out any freeze of the front line. Ukraine has struck Russian oil tankers and naval infrastructure, including an August 12 attack on Novorossiysk naval base, while reportedly halting attacks on CPC-linked tankers after a US request. The UN Security Council met on July 27, and the US has not pressed Russia to halt attacks on Ukrainian shipping. The blockade threatens global food security and Ukraine's economy, with alternative routes unable to compensate.
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Russia's Black Sea blockade cripples Ukraine's grain exports, Turkey proposes ceasefire rejected by Moscow
Background: Since mid-July, Russian missile and drone strikes have brought Ukraine's Black Sea grain corridor to a near-standstill, with no ships passing on July 22 and the UN Security Council convening an emergency meeting. Today: Russia's campaign has intensified, with over 180 attacks on Odesa ports in the first half of 2026, nearly matching the total for all of 2025, and a major August 9 strike. In July alone, Ukraine recorded 67 strikes on port facilities and dozens on vessels, including the July 19 attack on the Turkish-owned bulk carrier Golden Leo, which killed ten and later sank. Ship traffic has collapsed, with only seven vessels entering in the first 11 days of August, and Ukraine's agricultural exports are set to nearly halve in August to 1.5-1.6 million tonnes, costing $450-500 million monthly. Alternative routes via the Danube and EU can handle only about 1.4 million tonnes per month, constrained by drought and low water levels. Turkey proposed a Black Sea ceasefire, but Russia rejected it, with Foreign Minister Lavrov ruling out any freeze of the front line. Ukraine has struck Russian oil tankers and naval infrastructure, including an August 12 attack on Novorossiysk naval base, while reportedly halting attacks on CPC-linked tankers after a US request. The UN Security Council met on July 27, and the US has not pressed Russia to halt attacks on Ukrainian shipping. The blockade threatens global food security and Ukraine's economy, with alternative routes unable to compensate.
Background: Since mid-July, Russian missile and drone strikes have brought Ukraine's Black Sea grain corridor to a near-standstill, with no ships passing on July 22 and the UN Security Council convening an emergency meeting. Today: Russia's campaign has intensified, with over 180 attacks on Odesa ports in the first half of 2026, nearly matching the total for all of 2025, and a major August 9 strike. In July alone, Ukraine recorded 67 strikes on port facilities and dozens on vessels, including the July 19 attack on the Turkish-owned bulk carrier Golden Leo, which killed ten and later sank. Ship traffic has collapsed, with only seven vessels entering in the first 11 days of August, and Ukraine's agricultural exports are set to nearly halve in August to 1.5-1.6 million tonnes, costing $450-500 million monthly. Alternative routes via the Danube and EU can handle only about 1.4 million tonnes per month, constrained by drought and low water levels. Turkey proposed a Black Sea ceasefire, but Russia rejected it, with Foreign Minister Lavrov ruling out any freeze of the front line. Ukraine has struck Russian oil tankers and naval infrastructure, including an August 12 attack on Novorossiysk naval base, while reportedly halting attacks on CPC-linked tankers after a US request. The UN Security Council met on July 27, and the US has not pressed Russia to halt attacks on Ukrainian shipping. The blockade threatens global food security and Ukraine's economy, with alternative routes unable to compensate.
ua45Russia intensifies Banderol missile strikes on Odesa, using 'missile spam' tactics
Background: Russia has mass-produced the S8000 Banderol cruise missile, a low-cost hybrid drone-cruise missile with foreign components, used in nightly strikes on Ukrainian cities. Today: Russia has resumed and intensified Banderol missile attacks after a temporary pause, with strikes now almost daily across most regions except the western oblasts. Odesa and its oblast bear the brunt, receiving about 70% of the missiles, and Banderol strikes are involved in around 80% of Russian attacks on Odesa's infrastructure, contributing to the closure of Black Sea ports. The missiles are primarily launched from Mi-28N helicopters operating from occupied Crimea, with a new ground-based launcher also in use, reducing detection and response time. Russia produces about 80 missiles per month and plans up to 1,000 this year. The Banderol is often used in a 'missile spam' tactic, launched singly at intervals or alongside Geran-4/5 jet-powered drones and Kh-59/69 missiles to strain Ukrainian air defenses. The missile's speed (500-600 km/h) makes it too fast for FPV interceptor drones, requiring more expensive systems. Russia is also developing similar systems: the Dan-T (a modified Dan-M jet-powered UAV) and the S-71K (a new missile for the Su-57 with a 250kg warhead and 300km range). Ukraine is developing low-cost interceptors and testing foreign systems like Estonia's Mark I missiles, while the most effective countermeasure remains striking production facilities and tightening sanctions, as production relies on foreign components including Chinese engines and Western electronics.
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Russia intensifies Banderol missile strikes on Odesa, using 'missile spam' tactics
Background: Russia has mass-produced the S8000 Banderol cruise missile, a low-cost hybrid drone-cruise missile with foreign components, used in nightly strikes on Ukrainian cities. Today: Russia has resumed and intensified Banderol missile attacks after a temporary pause, with strikes now almost daily across most regions except the western oblasts. Odesa and its oblast bear the brunt, receiving about 70% of the missiles, and Banderol strikes are involved in around 80% of Russian attacks on Odesa's infrastructure, contributing to the closure of Black Sea ports. The missiles are primarily launched from Mi-28N helicopters operating from occupied Crimea, with a new ground-based launcher also in use, reducing detection and response time. Russia produces about 80 missiles per month and plans up to 1,000 this year. The Banderol is often used in a 'missile spam' tactic, launched singly at intervals or alongside Geran-4/5 jet-powered drones and Kh-59/69 missiles to strain Ukrainian air defenses. The missile's speed (500-600 km/h) makes it too fast for FPV interceptor drones, requiring more expensive systems. Russia is also developing similar systems: the Dan-T (a modified Dan-M jet-powered UAV) and the S-71K (a new missile for the Su-57 with a 250kg warhead and 300km range). Ukraine is developing low-cost interceptors and testing foreign systems like Estonia's Mark I missiles, while the most effective countermeasure remains striking production facilities and tightening sanctions, as production relies on foreign components including Chinese engines and Western electronics.
Background: Russia has mass-produced the S8000 Banderol cruise missile, a low-cost hybrid drone-cruise missile with foreign components, used in nightly strikes on Ukrainian cities. Today: Russia has resumed and intensified Banderol missile attacks after a temporary pause, with strikes now almost daily across most regions except the western oblasts. Odesa and its oblast bear the brunt, receiving about 70% of the missiles, and Banderol strikes are involved in around 80% of Russian attacks on Odesa's infrastructure, contributing to the closure of Black Sea ports. The missiles are primarily launched from Mi-28N helicopters operating from occupied Crimea, with a new ground-based launcher also in use, reducing detection and response time. Russia produces about 80 missiles per month and plans up to 1,000 this year. The Banderol is often used in a 'missile spam' tactic, launched singly at intervals or alongside Geran-4/5 jet-powered drones and Kh-59/69 missiles to strain Ukrainian air defenses. The missile's speed (500-600 km/h) makes it too fast for FPV interceptor drones, requiring more expensive systems. Russia is also developing similar systems: the Dan-T (a modified Dan-M jet-powered UAV) and the S-71K (a new missile for the Su-57 with a 250kg warhead and 300km range). Ukraine is developing low-cost interceptors and testing foreign systems like Estonia's Mark I missiles, while the most effective countermeasure remains striking production facilities and tightening sanctions, as production relies on foreign components including Chinese engines and Western electronics.
gb45El Niño forecast to be strongest in living memory, NOAA and Met Office warn
Background: NOAA had confirmed the formation of a strong El Niño in the Pacific, expected to grow to historic strength and rival the record 1997 event, with a 63% chance of ranking among the largest since 1950. Today, the UK Met Office and NOAA warn that the developing El Niño could be the strongest in living memory, with sea surface temperatures over 2°C above normal and potentially exceeding 3°C. NOAA's mid-August forecast gives a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter, with a 69% chance it will surpass all events since 1950 during October-December. The event is expected to peak around late 2026 and persist through spring 2027, making 2027 very likely the hottest year on record. Impacts already observed include suppressed monsoon rains in India, reduced Atlantic hurricane activity (only three named storms so far), and increased storminess risk for the UK. Scientists note subsurface temperature anomalies up to 10°C at depth, and some projections suggest anomalies could reach 4°C, potentially making this the strongest event in 500-1,000 years. The World Food Program estimates at least 49 million additional people could face acute food insecurity by end of 2027.
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El Niño forecast to be strongest in living memory, NOAA and Met Office warn
Background: NOAA had confirmed the formation of a strong El Niño in the Pacific, expected to grow to historic strength and rival the record 1997 event, with a 63% chance of ranking among the largest since 1950. Today, the UK Met Office and NOAA warn that the developing El Niño could be the strongest in living memory, with sea surface temperatures over 2°C above normal and potentially exceeding 3°C. NOAA's mid-August forecast gives a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter, with a 69% chance it will surpass all events since 1950 during October-December. The event is expected to peak around late 2026 and persist through spring 2027, making 2027 very likely the hottest year on record. Impacts already observed include suppressed monsoon rains in India, reduced Atlantic hurricane activity (only three named storms so far), and increased storminess risk for the UK. Scientists note subsurface temperature anomalies up to 10°C at depth, and some projections suggest anomalies could reach 4°C, potentially making this the strongest event in 500-1,000 years. The World Food Program estimates at least 49 million additional people could face acute food insecurity by end of 2027.
Background: NOAA had confirmed the formation of a strong El Niño in the Pacific, expected to grow to historic strength and rival the record 1997 event, with a 63% chance of ranking among the largest since 1950. Today, the UK Met Office and NOAA warn that the developing El Niño could be the strongest in living memory, with sea surface temperatures over 2°C above normal and potentially exceeding 3°C. NOAA's mid-August forecast gives a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter, with a 69% chance it will surpass all events since 1950 during October-December. The event is expected to peak around late 2026 and persist through spring 2027, making 2027 very likely the hottest year on record. Impacts already observed include suppressed monsoon rains in India, reduced Atlantic hurricane activity (only three named storms so far), and increased storminess risk for the UK. Scientists note subsurface temperature anomalies up to 10°C at depth, and some projections suggest anomalies could reach 4°C, potentially making this the strongest event in 500-1,000 years. The World Food Program estimates at least 49 million additional people could face acute food insecurity by end of 2027.
ua44Russian strikes on DTEK thermal power plant and Zaporizhzhia cause outages, halt generation
On August 18, Russia launched a massive strike on a DTEK thermal power plant, severely damaging equipment and forcing the facility to halt electricity generation. DTEK reported that its thermal power plants have been attacked over 230 times since the full-scale invasion. Separately, a Russian attack on Zaporizhzhia caused widespread power outages, with infrastructure facilities relying on backup power and restoration efforts underway. These strikes are part of Russia's ongoing campaign against Ukraine's energy infrastructure ahead of winter, with Ukrainian officials warning of intensified attacks on critical civilian systems, including potential targeting of water supplies.
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Russian strikes on DTEK thermal power plant and Zaporizhzhia cause outages, halt generation
On August 18, Russia launched a massive strike on a DTEK thermal power plant, severely damaging equipment and forcing the facility to halt electricity generation. DTEK reported that its thermal power plants have been attacked over 230 times since the full-scale invasion. Separately, a Russian attack on Zaporizhzhia caused widespread power outages, with infrastructure facilities relying on backup power and restoration efforts underway. These strikes are part of Russia's ongoing campaign against Ukraine's energy infrastructure ahead of winter, with Ukrainian officials warning of intensified attacks on critical civilian systems, including potential targeting of water supplies.
On August 18, Russia launched a massive strike on a DTEK thermal power plant, severely damaging equipment and forcing the facility to halt electricity generation. DTEK reported that its thermal power plants have been attacked over 230 times since the full-scale invasion. Separately, a Russian attack on Zaporizhzhia caused widespread power outages, with infrastructure facilities relying on backup power and restoration efforts underway. These strikes are part of Russia's ongoing campaign against Ukraine's energy infrastructure ahead of winter, with Ukrainian officials warning of intensified attacks on critical civilian systems, including potential targeting of water supplies.
tr44Erdogan warns Trump of Israeli escalation, cites Mecca Security Pact with Saudi Arabia and Pakistan
In an August 17 phone call with US President Donald Trump, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan expressed concern over Israel's increased actions against Palestinians and highlighted the Mecca Joint Security Agreement signed with Saudi Arabia and Pakistan on August 7. Erdogan warned that Turkey would not shy away from war if attacked, a message he had also conveyed in a recent Al Jazeera interview. The call did not address Turkey's arms sales to Ukraine or F-35 purchases, indicating a shift in priorities. The conversation comes amid regional tensions involving Israel, Iran, and the US, with Erdogan urging Trump to restrain Israel as Israeli elections approach.
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Erdogan warns Trump of Israeli escalation, cites Mecca Security Pact with Saudi Arabia and Pakistan
In an August 17 phone call with US President Donald Trump, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan expressed concern over Israel's increased actions against Palestinians and highlighted the Mecca Joint Security Agreement signed with Saudi Arabia and Pakistan on August 7. Erdogan warned that Turkey would not shy away from war if attacked, a message he had also conveyed in a recent Al Jazeera interview. The call did not address Turkey's arms sales to Ukraine or F-35 purchases, indicating a shift in priorities. The conversation comes amid regional tensions involving Israel, Iran, and the US, with Erdogan urging Trump to restrain Israel as Israeli elections approach.
In an August 17 phone call with US President Donald Trump, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan expressed concern over Israel's increased actions against Palestinians and highlighted the Mecca Joint Security Agreement signed with Saudi Arabia and Pakistan on August 7. Erdogan warned that Turkey would not shy away from war if attacked, a message he had also conveyed in a recent Al Jazeera interview. The call did not address Turkey's arms sales to Ukraine or F-35 purchases, indicating a shift in priorities. The conversation comes amid regional tensions involving Israel, Iran, and the US, with Erdogan urging Trump to restrain Israel as Israeli elections approach.
fr43Climate change drives record marine heat waves in European seas, study finds
Background: Western Europe experienced its hottest June and July on record, with global sea surface temperatures hitting a record in July and severe marine heatwaves in the Atlantic and western Mediterranean. New development: A World Weather Attribution study released Wednesday found that the extreme sea temperatures around Europe in July would have been virtually impossible without human-caused climate change. The study attributed up to 2°C of warming in the Mediterranean to human activity, with Mediterranean waters reaching 6°C above normal in June and averaging a record 27°C in July. The analysis covered the Celtic Sea, Bay of Biscay, Iberian Peninsula, and western and eastern Mediterranean, warning of severe risks to marine ecosystems, fisheries, and coastal communities. Further findings: A buoy near Mallorca recorded 33°C in early August. Climate change made the Celtic Sea event around 30 times more likely, and the other regions' temperatures would have been virtually impossible in a climate 1.4°C cooler. If global temperatures reach 2.8°C above pre-industrial levels, similar events could become another 1.3°C to 1.9°C hotter. Marine heat waves threaten mass die-offs of corals, sponges, and macroalgae, disrupt food chains, force species northward, and increase risks of waterborne diseases and jellyfish-related beach closures. The analysis also found that 90% of the Bay of Biscay and 80% of the western Mediterranean experienced marine heatwave conditions this year, compared to 40% without global warming.
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Climate change drives record marine heat waves in European seas, study finds
Background: Western Europe experienced its hottest June and July on record, with global sea surface temperatures hitting a record in July and severe marine heatwaves in the Atlantic and western Mediterranean. New development: A World Weather Attribution study released Wednesday found that the extreme sea temperatures around Europe in July would have been virtually impossible without human-caused climate change. The study attributed up to 2°C of warming in the Mediterranean to human activity, with Mediterranean waters reaching 6°C above normal in June and averaging a record 27°C in July. The analysis covered the Celtic Sea, Bay of Biscay, Iberian Peninsula, and western and eastern Mediterranean, warning of severe risks to marine ecosystems, fisheries, and coastal communities. Further findings: A buoy near Mallorca recorded 33°C in early August. Climate change made the Celtic Sea event around 30 times more likely, and the other regions' temperatures would have been virtually impossible in a climate 1.4°C cooler. If global temperatures reach 2.8°C above pre-industrial levels, similar events could become another 1.3°C to 1.9°C hotter. Marine heat waves threaten mass die-offs of corals, sponges, and macroalgae, disrupt food chains, force species northward, and increase risks of waterborne diseases and jellyfish-related beach closures. The analysis also found that 90% of the Bay of Biscay and 80% of the western Mediterranean experienced marine heatwave conditions this year, compared to 40% without global warming.
Background: Western Europe experienced its hottest June and July on record, with global sea surface temperatures hitting a record in July and severe marine heatwaves in the Atlantic and western Mediterranean. New development: A World Weather Attribution study released Wednesday found that the extreme sea temperatures around Europe in July would have been virtually impossible without human-caused climate change. The study attributed up to 2°C of warming in the Mediterranean to human activity, with Mediterranean waters reaching 6°C above normal in June and averaging a record 27°C in July. The analysis covered the Celtic Sea, Bay of Biscay, Iberian Peninsula, and western and eastern Mediterranean, warning of severe risks to marine ecosystems, fisheries, and coastal communities. Further findings: A buoy near Mallorca recorded 33°C in early August. Climate change made the Celtic Sea event around 30 times more likely, and the other regions' temperatures would have been virtually impossible in a climate 1.4°C cooler. If global temperatures reach 2.8°C above pre-industrial levels, similar events could become another 1.3°C to 1.9°C hotter. Marine heat waves threaten mass die-offs of corals, sponges, and macroalgae, disrupt food chains, force species northward, and increase risks of waterborne diseases and jellyfish-related beach closures. The analysis also found that 90% of the Bay of Biscay and 80% of the western Mediterranean experienced marine heatwave conditions this year, compared to 40% without global warming.
ua43Ukraine's HUR: Russia Plans to Capture Donetsk Oblast by Year-End, No Peace Deal Expected
Ukraine's military intelligence (HUR) deputy chief Vadym Skibitskyi stated that Russia intends to capture the remainder of Donetsk Oblast by the end of 2026 and that no peace agreement is expected before 2026 ends. HUR estimates Russian personnel losses exceeded contract recruitment in June and July, limiting Moscow's ability to form new units without mobilization. Russia is also preparing for intensified attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure during autumn and winter, and may launch a new mobilization wave after September elections, potentially enabling a strike force by early 2027. HUR warns Russia is preparing for a potential conflict with NATO by 2030.
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Ukraine's HUR: Russia Plans to Capture Donetsk Oblast by Year-End, No Peace Deal Expected
Ukraine's military intelligence (HUR) deputy chief Vadym Skibitskyi stated that Russia intends to capture the remainder of Donetsk Oblast by the end of 2026 and that no peace agreement is expected before 2026 ends. HUR estimates Russian personnel losses exceeded contract recruitment in June and July, limiting Moscow's ability to form new units without mobilization. Russia is also preparing for intensified attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure during autumn and winter, and may launch a new mobilization wave after September elections, potentially enabling a strike force by early 2027. HUR warns Russia is preparing for a potential conflict with NATO by 2030.
Ukraine's military intelligence (HUR) deputy chief Vadym Skibitskyi stated that Russia intends to capture the remainder of Donetsk Oblast by the end of 2026 and that no peace agreement is expected before 2026 ends. HUR estimates Russian personnel losses exceeded contract recruitment in June and July, limiting Moscow's ability to form new units without mobilization. Russia is also preparing for intensified attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure during autumn and winter, and may launch a new mobilization wave after September elections, potentially enabling a strike force by early 2027. HUR warns Russia is preparing for a potential conflict with NATO by 2030.