Netanyahu-Trump alliance shows strain over Iran war strategy and ceasefire

Benjamin Netanyahu insisted this week he has "full coordination" with Donald Trump, speaking "almost daily," amid weeks of reports that Israel was excluded from US-led peace talks with Iran. Analysts and former officials say the public reassurances mask deep tension, as the war has failed to achieve its original goals and Trump has publicly rebuked Israel.

"He is doing so much talking about how great the relationship is that it makes me rather concerned about how much tension there is," said Dahlia Scheindlin, an American-Israeli political consultant and pollster. "I wouldn't be surprised, as the war is clearly going very poorly from all perspectives related to the original goals."

The US-Israeli assault on Iran began on 28 February, bringing the Gulf to a standstill. Netanyahu spent decades trying to persuade US presidents to join Israel in a war against Iran. He helped coax Trump to walk out of the 2015 nuclear deal in 2018, which led to Iran ramping up its nuclear program and accumulating a stockpile of 450kg of highly enriched uranium, sufficient for a dozen nuclear warheads.

According to extensive reporting in the US press, Netanyahu was instrumental in convincing Trump that war was the only solution. Alon Pinkas, a former Israeli diplomat, said Netanyahu told Trump: "What we could do together is bring down the regime … think that together, jointly, we can win the war in three, four days." Netanyahu and US administration hawks including Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth prevailed over intelligence and military officials who warned of risks, but they were proved wrong on every count: the Iranian people did not rise up, the regime did not fall, and the Revolutionary Guards inflicted withering damage on US bases and Gulf monarchies, closed the Strait of Hormuz, and triggered a global economic crisis.

By the end of March, Trump was showing disappointment with Netanyahu. When a ceasefire was announced on 8 April, Israel was left out of the loop; Israeli officials complained they had to use intelligence assets to find out what was happening. Trump publicly rebuked Israel on 17 April, posting: "Israel will not be bombing Lebanon any longer. They are PROHIBITED from doing so by the U.S.A. Enough is enough!!!"

Daniel Shapiro, former US ambassador to Israel, said Trump wants the war "more or less behind him" before a 14 May trip to China for a critical meeting with President Xi Jinping. "Otherwise, he will be in the position of a supplicant seeking Xi Jinping's help to get them to convince Iran to accept his terms or to make concessions they haven't made," Shapiro said.

John Bolton, Trump's former national security adviser, said: "I think Trump's jealous of Netanyahu because Netanyahu is one of the few people who can generate more press than he does." Bolton noted that despite Trump's imposition of a ceasefire, "he's still giving Netanyahu a pretty free hand in Lebanon."

Pinkas argued that strategic failure in the Iran war will prove too powerful a glue for Trump to dissolve quickly. "The problem Trump has is that if he lashes out at Netanyahu, if he expresses his disillusionment or desperation, he basically admits he was led into this war," Pinkas said. Netanyahu must hold an election by October, which by current polling would end his premiership. "This affects Netanyahu politically and this affects Trump politically," Pinkas said. "In other words, they have screwed each other pretty badly."