EU officials warn Russia may test NATO within two years amid US withdrawal and European unpreparedness
European defense officials and lawmakers fear Russia could test NATO within the next two years, exploiting a window of opportunity while the US withdraws from Europe and the EU has not yet reinforced its military capacity, according to three EU politicians familiar with the discussions. Finnish MEP Mika Aaltola said a targeted incursion designed to create ambiguity over whether it triggers Article 5 is more likely than a full ground offensive. The EU aims to be ready to deter aggression by 2030 under its Defense Readiness Roadmap.
BRUSSELS — European defense officials and lawmakers fear Russia could test NATO within the next one to two years, exploiting a window of opportunity while U.S. President Donald Trump remains in office and before the European Union has reinforced its military capacity, according to three EU politicians familiar with the discussions.
"Something could happen very soon – there is a Russian window of opportunity," said Mika Aaltola, a Finnish centre-right member of the European Parliament's foreign affairs committee. "The US is withdrawing from Europe, transatlantic relations are in a shambles, and the EU is not yet fully ready to take on the responsibilities by themselves."
Officials consider a full ground offensive in a NATO country unlikely given Russia's exhaustion from the war in Ukraine. Aaltola said a more likely scenario is a targeted action or limited incursion designed to create ambiguity over whether it triggers Article 5, the alliance's mutual defense clause. "It could be a drone operation, it could be a Baltic Sea operation … It could be something in the Arctic, targeting small islands," he said. "A drone attack doesn't require troops, it doesn't require crossing the border."
Trump, who is due to leave office in January 2029, has described NATO as a "paper tiger." The U.S. on Friday announced it would pull 5,000 troops out of Germany, and Trump threatened similar moves for Italy and Spain.
The EU's Defense Readiness Roadmap aims for the bloc to be able to "credibly deter its adversaries and respond to any aggression" by 2030. European defense spending has risen sharply since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, but the full impact will take years to be felt.
Gabrielius Landsbergis, former foreign minister of Lithuania, said Putin could "escalate horizontally against another neighbor, trying to avoid a humiliating negotiation with Ukraine." Ville Niinistö, chair of the European Parliament's Delegation to the EU-Russia Parliamentary Cooperation Committee, said: "Russia is not omnipotent. But desperation is also dangerous."
Not all European voices agree on the severity of the immediate threat. Estonian President Alar Karis said: "Russia is very busy in Ukraine. I don't think it has enough capacity to try" to wage war on the Baltics. A senior NATO diplomat said a Russian attack on a NATO member is "highly unlikely" and Putin's "suicidal trend has its limits." A second senior European defense official said: "It is clear that Russia sees itself in a long-term confrontation with the West. However, we currently maintain our assessment that there is no short-term military threat to NATO due to Russia's engagement in Ukraine."
Aaltola warned that downplaying the threat creates a false sense of security, calling it "the worst thing you can create in democratic countries." He added: "We need to allocate resources, and if there's a false sense of security, then resources are not allocated to defense."