Gulf War Trump Cannot End Opens Cracks in Netanyahu Alliance

The day in Washington was dominated by the war it cannot end. Trump's unilateral Project Freedom — a safe shipping zone on the Omani side of the Strait of Hormuz protected by more than 100 fighter jets and several naval destroyers — collapsed on Tuesday after 50 hours, defeated by Saudi objections, by the absence of any consultation with shipping companies, and by the fact that only two merchant vessels used it. Riyadh refused American access to its airspace and bases, fearing Project Freedom would restart full-scale war. Lloyd's List editor Richard Meade told the Guardian that "no major industry organisations that we are aware of have been approached by the US," and that "no ship owner I have spoken to in the past 24 hours has any confidence that this changes anything." S&P Global Market Intelligence recorded no merchant transits through the strait on Wednesday or Thursday, with more than 1,550 vessels stuck in the Gulf.

Leaked CIA assessments published this week put Iran's surviving stockpile at 70 percent of its missiles, 75 percent of its launchers and roughly half of its Shahed attack drones. A US intelligence estimate leaked to the Washington Post gave Tehran three to four months before more severe economic hardship sets in. American high-end missile stocks themselves fell by between a quarter and a half during the $25 billion Epic Fury campaign. Trump described Thursday's US strikes inside Iran as "a love tap." Burcu Ozcelik of the Royal United Services Institute told the F.A.S. that "Trump wanted a quick win, and was not prepared to commit the substantial military force that would have been required to dislodge the regime properly."

The blockade is the half of the campaign Washington can still execute. Two US carrier strike groups are operating east of the strait, and US Central Command — under commander Brad Cooper — said its forces had turned back 52 vessels since 13 April. On Friday CENTCOM struck and disabled two Iranian-flagged oil tankers near the strait to prevent them reaching a port on the Gulf of Oman; Cooper said the action was part of an enforcement of the blockade on vessels entering or leaving Iran. The Treasury simultaneously sanctioned more than a dozen individuals and entities in Iran, China, Belarus and the United Arab Emirates over support for Iran's ballistic-missile and UAV programmes. Three Chinese firms were specifically sanctioned for providing satellite imagery of US facilities to Tehran. Washington's standing offer is a 14-point deal that includes a nuclear-enrichment moratorium and a lifting of the Hormuz blockade; Iran's top negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, called the campaign an attempt "to destroy the country's cohesion" through "a naval blockade, economic pressure and media manipulation." Secretary of State Marco Rubio said he hoped Tehran would respond with "a serious offer."

US intelligence agencies believe Iran's new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, is actively shaping wartime strategy and the US-Iran negotiations despite remaining out of public view since the strikes that killed several senior officials including his father, according to a CNN report on Friday. Iranian protocol chief Mazaher Hosseini said Friday that Khamenei's condition had improved. The new contour of the Trump-Netanyahu alliance is harder to disguise: Netanyahu insisted he has "full coordination" with Trump and speaks with him "almost daily," after weeks of reports that Israel was excluded from the US-led talks with Tehran and that the war has not delivered on its original goals. Trump has publicly rebuked Israel during the campaign.

Ukraine was the second track. A three-day humanitarian ceasefire brokered by Washington took effect across Ukraine on May 9-11, alongside a planned exchange of 1,000 prisoners on each side; Rubio said the United States remained ready to mediate Ukraine-Russia talks if a productive opening emerges, and Volodymyr Zelensky said he was ready for a trilateral US-Russia-Ukraine format. Russian aide Yuri Ushakov conditioned further talks on Ukrainian withdrawal from Donbas, which Kyiv rejects. Within hours of the ceasefire taking effect, a Russian FPV drone killed the 67-year-old driver of a civilian car in the Polohy district of Zaporizhzhia, and overnight Russian drone strikes killed a 70-year-old man and his 49-year-old son at an agricultural enterprise in the Chernihiv region.

At home, the day's other story was border data. Despite the administration's continuing claim of zero illegal crossings on the southern border, figures from local law enforcement and Border Patrol show continuing crossings and a 15 percent year-on-year increase in encounters during March, with cartels still active. Officials warn that the political narrative is running ahead of the operational reality.