Russia violated every ceasefire with Ukraine since 2014, analysis shows
An analysis of more than 20 ceasefires between Ukraine and Russia since 2014 shows that Russia violated every single one, often using the lulls to regroup and reinforce its forces. The pattern continued in May 2026 when Russia declared a ceasefire from May 8-10 for Moscow's Victory Day parade but attacked Ukraine within minutes of its start. President Volodymyr Zelensky said Russia “has fought itself into a situation where now Ukraine decides whether the parade there will take place or not.”
KYIV — An analysis of more than 20 ceasefires between Ukraine and Russia since 2014 shows that Russia violated every single one, often using the lulls to regroup and reinforce its forces, according to a review of documented agreements and battlefield records.
The pattern continued in May 2026 when Russia declared a “ceasefire regime” from May 8 to May 10, timed to Moscow’s Victory Day parade. Russia attacked Ukraine with guided aerial bombs, missiles, and drones within minutes of the May 8 ceasefire start. President Volodymyr Zelensky said Russia “has fought itself into a situation where now Ukraine decides whether the parade there will take place or not.”
Ukraine launched 270 drones at targets on Russian territory on the night of May 8, hitting an oil refinery in Yaroslavl. Zelensky noted that “every day Russia can make the choice and stop its war. And not for a few hours in order to receive our permission to hold a parade in Moscow, but in order to save people’s lives.”
The first ceasefire was June 20-30, 2014, introduced by Ukraine at the insistence of Western partners. It had no effect on hostilities except that Russian forces brought up reserves and improved their operational position; fighting resumed with renewed intensity on June 30. The Sept. 5, 2014 “Minsk” ceasefire was violated by Russia, which sought to seize additional territories in Donbas. The Feb. 15, 2015 second “Minsk” ceasefire was violated days later; Russia used it to reinforce troops and assault Debaltseve.
The longest ceasefire, the “Silence Regime,” ran from Aug. 21, 2020 to March 26, 2021. Russia violated it within 30 minutes of its start. On March 26, 2021, Russia killed four Ukrainian servicemembers near Shumy in Donbas, ending the regime.
The war began with Russia’s attack on Crimea in late February 2014. The first shot was fired on March 18, 2014, killing Ukrainian Armed Forces Warrant Officer Serhii Kokurin in Simferopol. On April 12, 2014, the so-called “Donetsk People’s Republic” was proclaimed on Ukrainian territory. On Aug. 24, 2014, an open invasion by Russian Armed Forces began in Donetsk region.
Many analysts compare Russia’s absolution in 2014 to the “appeasement policy” toward Hitler in the 1930s, arguing it led Russia to launch a full-scale war in Europe in 2022.