Turkish minister says Gulf and Strait of Hormuz will not be the same after Iran war

Turkish Trade Minister Ömer Bolat said on Friday that the Gulf and Strait of Hormuz will be permanently altered after the Middle East conflict ends, as the Iran war has caused the biggest energy supply disruption ever. Speaking at an event in Istanbul, Bolat said the "single route" approach in global trade has come to an end and that countries will always consider alternative routes for strategic supplies and vital energy sources.

The Iran war, unleashed on Feb. 28 by Israel and the United States against Iran, triggered a blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, bottling up a fifth of global oil and gas supply. Bolat said around 25% of global oil, 20% of natural gas, and roughly one-third of fertilizer and petrochemical trade passed through the waterway before the war. He said the consensus among analysts is that the Strait of Hormuz closure is having more destructive consequences for the global economy than previous crises.

"As attacks on shipping began and Iran started using the strait as leverage, supply disruption fears suddenly increased and prices rose sharply," Bolat said. He said higher prices in oil, gas and fertilizers were feeding into global inflation pressures. Bolat said world goods trade is expected to expand by only 1.9% this year from 4.6% in 2025 under baseline estimates, according to the World Trade Organization, and potentially as low as 1.4% under a pessimistic scenario.

Bolat said Türkiye had managed to avoid supply shortages despite global volatility, citing government measures and pre-emptive procurement strategies. "There has been no supply shortage in fuel, electricity, natural gas, fertilizers or petrochemical products," he said, adding that price increases reflected global market conditions rather than domestic shortages.

Bolat said Türkiye's exports to Gulf countries fell by 35% to $1.5 billion in March due to disruptions, but noted that demand from other markets had increased as countries sought alternative suppliers. "When those in Europe were unable to obtain products from the Far East or the Gulf, orders from there also began to increase," he said.

Bolat said transit routes have been operational since mid-April via Jordan and Saudi Arabia, and via Türkiye, Iraq and Saudi Arabia. He said the 10-year transit visa issue enabling Turkish truck drivers to pass through Saudi Arabia to the Gulf countries has been resolved. Bolat also highlighted Türkiye's role in European trade, noting that annual total trade between Türkiye and the European Union stood at $233 billion, with exports slightly exceeding imports. The bloc receives more than 40% of Türkiye's exports, and Türkiye is the EU's fifth-largest trading partner and one of the top three countries in the EU's free trade agreement network.

"One thing is clear: the Gulf and Hormuz will not be the same as before," Bolat said.