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Today 24 August Briefing Read full brief

France is campaigning through institutions already under strain

Water tankers, a breach affecting 678,000 tax records and four suspected Russian operations against Gabriel Attal turned state capacity into an early presidential issue. The fiscal watchdog then warned that a year without a 2027 budget would worsen the deficit by at least 0.5 percent of GDP, making institutional competence the campaign’s scarce resource.

Key Indicators
Full catalog · 37

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23 key official events ahead
August 2026
Statistics
INSEE GDP — Q2 2026 detailed results

Detailed national accounts for Q2 2026, including household purchasing power and the corporate profit margin.

Statistics
INSEE French CPI — August 2026 flash estimate

Provisional consumer price index for August 2026. (provisional date — follows INSEE's end-of-month flash cadence)

September 2026
Central Bank
ECB Governing Council monetary policy decision + staff projections

Rate decision accompanied by the September round of ECB staff macroeconomic projections; meeting held at the Deutsche Bundesbank.

Statistics
INSEE French CPI — final August 2026

Final consumer price index for August 2026. (provisional date — follows INSEE's mid-month final cadence)

Election
French Senate elections (sénatoriales)

Series 2 renewal: 178 of the Senate's seats across 63 departments are contested by indirect suffrage. Outcome shapes the upper chamber's balance during the budget season and ahead of the 2027 presidential race.

Statistics
INSEE French CPI — September 2026 flash estimate

Provisional consumer price index for September 2026. (provisional date — follows INSEE's end-of-month flash cadence)

October 2026
Parliament
Assemblée Nationale: opening of the 2026–2027 ordinary session

Constitutionally fixed start of the ordinary parliamentary session (runs to 30 June 2027), opening the autumn budget cycle for a minority government.

Parliament
PLF 2027: presentation of the draft budget to the Council of Ministers

Tabling of the 2027 finance bill (Projet de Loi de Finances) before its first Assemblée reading; a central test of the government's ability to pass a budget without a majority. (provisional date — PLF 2026 was presented 14 Oct 2025)

Central Bank
ECB Governing Council monetary policy decision

Autumn eurozone rate decision ahead of the December projection meeting.

Statistics
INSEE GDP — Q3 2026 first estimate

Flash estimate of third-quarter French GDP growth. (provisional date — follows INSEE's end-of-month flash cadence)

Statistics
INSEE French CPI — October 2026 flash estimate

Provisional consumer price index for October 2026. (provisional date — follows INSEE's end-of-month flash cadence)

November 2026
Statistics
INSEE unemployment rate — Q3 2026 (ILO definition)

Quarterly ILO (BIT) unemployment rate for Q3 2026. (provisional date — follows INSEE's quarterly cadence)

Statistics
INSEE French CPI — November 2026 flash estimate

Provisional consumer price index for November 2026. (provisional date — follows INSEE's end-of-month flash cadence)

December 2026
Parliament
Assemblée Nationale: window for a motion de censure / final PLF 2027 vote

Likely period for the decisive budget vote and any no-confidence motion, given the constitutional 70-day limit on the finance bill. The government may invoke Article 49.3. (provisional window — exact dates depend on the legislative timetable)

Central Bank
ECB Governing Council monetary policy decision + staff projections

Final eurozone rate decision of 2026 with the December staff projections; sets the tone for the 2027 rate path.

January 2027
Statistics
INSEE French CPI — final December 2026 + December flash

Mid-January release confirming December and full-year 2026 inflation. (provisional date — follows INSEE's mid-month cadence)

Statistics
INSEE GDP — Q4 2026 first estimate

Flash estimate of fourth-quarter and full-year 2026 French GDP growth. (provisional date — follows INSEE's end-of-month cadence)

February 2027
Statistics
INSEE unemployment rate — Q4 2026 (ILO definition)

Quarterly ILO (BIT) unemployment rate for Q4 2026; the year-end labour-market read. (provisional date — follows INSEE's quarterly cadence)

March 2027
Central Bank
ECB Governing Council monetary policy decision + staff projections

First eurozone rate decision of 2027 with the March staff projections.

April 2027
Election
French presidential election — first round

First round of the 2027 presidential election. Constitutionally the vote must fall between 11 April and 2 May 2027; the runoff follows two weeks later. (provisional date — decree fixing the exact day not yet issued)

Central Bank
ECB Governing Council monetary policy decision

Spring 2027 eurozone rate decision.

June 2027
Central Bank
ECB Governing Council monetary policy decision + staff projections

June 2027 eurozone rate decision with the quarterly staff projections.

July 2027
Central Bank
ECB Governing Council monetary policy decision

Summer 2027 eurozone rate decision (horizon anchor).

France

Recent events

24
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fr43

France reports sharp rise in drownings linked to heatwaves

Background: A severe June heatwave in France has already overwhelmed hospitals, forced event cancellations, and caused drownings and a child's death. New development: France has recorded 301 drownings since 19 June, a 14% increase compared to 2025, according to Sports Minister Marina Ferrari. Many accidents occurred in unsupervised areas like canals and open water, with elderly people also affected in private pools. The heatwaves have also caused wildfires and forced a nuclear power plant shutdown, with France logging 7,300 excess deaths between late May and 22 July.

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Background: A severe June heatwave in France has already overwhelmed hospitals, forced event cancellations, and caused drownings and a child's death. New development: France has recorded 301 drownings since 19 June, a 14% increase compared to 2025, according to Sports Minister Marina Ferrari. Many accidents occurred in unsupervised areas like canals and open water, with elderly people also affected in private pools. The heatwaves have also caused wildfires and forced a nuclear power plant shutdown, with France logging 7,300 excess deaths between late May and 22 July.

fr39

Glucksmann announces 2027 presidential bid, joins left-wing primary

Raphaël Glucksmann, leader of Place Publique, announced his candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election on TF1, and will participate in the left-wing primary organized with the Socialist Party in October. Socialist Party deputy Arthur Delaporte welcomed the announcement, saying it reduces the number of left-wing candidates and hopes the primary will foster debate and unite socialists, ecologists, communists, and disaffected LFI voters.

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Raphaël Glucksmann, leader of Place Publique, announced his candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election on TF1, and will participate in the left-wing primary organized with the Socialist Party in October. Socialist Party deputy Arthur Delaporte welcomed the announcement, saying it reduces the number of left-wing candidates and hopes the primary will foster debate and unite socialists, ecologists, communists, and disaffected LFI voters.

fr36

Mélenchon vows LFI will censure Lecornu's 2027 budget

Background: French PM Sébastien Lecornu is pushing a reform-oriented 2027 budget with structural reforms and fiscal stability, facing opposition threats. Today: On August 23, at the party's summer university near Valence, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, leader of La France Insoumise, vowed that LFI will censure the Lecornu government over its 2027 budget, which he claims will worsen France's economic situation and push it into recession. He proposed alternative economic measures including taxing large fortunes and multinationals, instituting a superprofits tax, increasing wages, eliminating predatory tax niches, and freezing state debts at the European Central Bank. He also criticized Lecornu's warning against delaying budget adoption until after the presidential election, calling it a lesson from those who caused the disaster.

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Background: French PM Sébastien Lecornu is pushing a reform-oriented 2027 budget with structural reforms and fiscal stability, facing opposition threats. Today: On August 23, at the party's summer university near Valence, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, leader of La France Insoumise, vowed that LFI will censure the Lecornu government over its 2027 budget, which he claims will worsen France's economic situation and push it into recession. He proposed alternative economic measures including taxing large fortunes and multinationals, instituting a superprofits tax, increasing wages, eliminating predatory tax niches, and freezing state debts at the European Central Bank. He also criticized Lecornu's warning against delaying budget adoption until after the presidential election, calling it a lesson from those who caused the disaster.

fr35

Mélenchon accuses prefects of bias; Interior Minister defends their impartiality

During the closing speech of La France Insoumise's summer university near Valence, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, candidate for the 2027 French presidential election, accused prefects of bias against LFI deputies, demanding they 'return to their offices' and stop legal proceedings. Interior Minister Laurent Nuñez responded on X, defending prefects' neutrality and stating they need no lessons in impartiality. This exchange marks an early clash in the presidential campaign, highlighting tensions between the left-wing party and state representatives.

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During the closing speech of La France Insoumise's summer university near Valence, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, candidate for the 2027 French presidential election, accused prefects of bias against LFI deputies, demanding they 'return to their offices' and stop legal proceedings. Interior Minister Laurent Nuñez responded on X, defending prefects' neutrality and stating they need no lessons in impartiality. This exchange marks an early clash in the presidential campaign, highlighting tensions between the left-wing party and state representatives.

fr28

Bruno Le Maire publishes manifesto ahead of French presidential election

Former French Economy Minister Bruno Le Maire published a 60-page manifesto on August 22, titled 'un manifeste pour une autre France', ahead of the 2027 presidential election, in which he does not exclude participating. The manifesto outlines three priorities: authority, prosperity, and sovereignty. On authority, he proposes restricting state action to security, protection, education, and health, delegating everything else. On prosperity, he argues against the idea of working less and earning more, blaming 1981 pension choices for France's rising debt. On sovereignty, he reiterates the call for a federation of six nations (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Poland, Netherlands) to give Europe political weight in the EU. This follows his earlier proposal for such a federation with a constitution and new capital.

Show summary

Former French Economy Minister Bruno Le Maire published a 60-page manifesto on August 22, titled 'un manifeste pour une autre France', ahead of the 2027 presidential election, in which he does not exclude participating. The manifesto outlines three priorities: authority, prosperity, and sovereignty. On authority, he proposes restricting state action to security, protection, education, and health, delegating everything else. On prosperity, he argues against the idea of working less and earning more, blaming 1981 pension choices for France's rising debt. On sovereignty, he reiterates the call for a federation of six nations (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Poland, Netherlands) to give Europe political weight in the EU. This follows his earlier proposal for such a federation with a constitution and new capital.

fr25

Édouard Philippe campaigns in Mayotte, outlines centrist unity plan

Background: French presidential candidate Édouard Philippe has proposed a total immigration freeze in Mayotte and a return center in East Africa. During his campaign visit to Mayotte, Philippe engaged in public activities to soften his austere image, including traditional dancing and attending a local football match, and made informal remarks to a child about the upcoming school year. He reiterated his plan to unite the right and center, from Bruno Retailleau to Gabriel Attal, with a timeline of between November and February. His tour continues to La Réunion for 48 hours starting August 23.

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Background: French presidential candidate Édouard Philippe has proposed a total immigration freeze in Mayotte and a return center in East Africa. During his campaign visit to Mayotte, Philippe engaged in public activities to soften his austere image, including traditional dancing and attending a local football match, and made informal remarks to a child about the upcoming school year. He reiterated his plan to unite the right and center, from Bruno Retailleau to Gabriel Attal, with a timeline of between November and February. His tour continues to La Réunion for 48 hours starting August 23.

fr45

Macron and Saudi Crown Prince Attend Esports World Cup Closing Ceremony in Paris

Background: French President Emmanuel Macron is hosting Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman for an official visit on August 23-24, including the first meeting of the Franco-Saudi Strategic Partnership Council. The visit began with the closing ceremony of the Esports World Cup at the Grand Palais in Paris, attended by Macron, MBS, FIFA president Gianni Infantino, and footballer Cristiano Ronaldo, who served as ambassador. The event was relocated from Riyadh to Paris following the outbreak of the US-Israeli war against Iran. The leaders are scheduled to hold the first meeting of the Franco-Saudi strategic partnership council at the Elysée on Monday, with agreements on health, transport, and energy to be signed. The visit marks MBS's full rehabilitation in Paris eight years after the Khashoggi murder, driven by economic interests and Riyadh's diplomatic importance. Rights groups, including RSF, have urged Macron to raise press freedom and the release of imprisoned journalists.

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Background: French President Emmanuel Macron is hosting Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman for an official visit on August 23-24, including the first meeting of the Franco-Saudi Strategic Partnership Council. The visit began with the closing ceremony of the Esports World Cup at the Grand Palais in Paris, attended by Macron, MBS, FIFA president Gianni Infantino, and footballer Cristiano Ronaldo, who served as ambassador. The event was relocated from Riyadh to Paris following the outbreak of the US-Israeli war against Iran. The leaders are scheduled to hold the first meeting of the Franco-Saudi strategic partnership council at the Elysée on Monday, with agreements on health, transport, and energy to be signed. The visit marks MBS's full rehabilitation in Paris eight years after the Khashoggi murder, driven by economic interests and Riyadh's diplomatic importance. Rights groups, including RSF, have urged Macron to raise press freedom and the release of imprisoned journalists.

fr43

Former French and UK diplomats urge sanctions on Israel over Palestinian 'erasure'

Over 100 former senior diplomats from France and the UK have published an unprecedented joint letter in Le Monde and the Guardian, accusing Israel of ethnic cleansing and seeking to destroy any prospect of a viable Palestinian state. The letter calls on their governments to impose sanctions, including suspending trade agreements and arms transfers, banning settlement trade, and upholding international court rulings. It highlights ongoing violence in the West Bank, house demolitions, and the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, urging France and the UK to act to prevent accusations of double standards and to support Palestinian self-determination.

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Over 100 former senior diplomats from France and the UK have published an unprecedented joint letter in Le Monde and the Guardian, accusing Israel of ethnic cleansing and seeking to destroy any prospect of a viable Palestinian state. The letter calls on their governments to impose sanctions, including suspending trade agreements and arms transfers, banning settlement trade, and upholding international court rulings. It highlights ongoing violence in the West Bank, house demolitions, and the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, urging France and the UK to act to prevent accusations of double standards and to support Palestinian self-determination.

Frequently Asked

5
How many people were affected by the French tax data breach?
Attackers extracted data on 678,000 people and businesses from the French tax administration using stolen credentials.
What is the current soil moisture level in France?
Météo-France says soil moisture has reached its lowest level since measurements began.
What is the expected French deficit in 2027 without policy change?
The European Commission expects a no-policy-change deficit of 5.7 percent in 2027.
Who is Sébastien Lecornu?
Sébastien Lecornu is the French Prime Minister who convened a crisis meeting and ordered an ANSSI audit after the tax data breach.
What is the IGF's warning about the 2027 budget?
The Inspection générale des finances found that prolonging the special law would worsen the public balance by at least 0.5 percentage points of GDP and leave ministries about €10 billion short.