Germany Clashes Over Iran Threats; AfD Hits 41% in Saxony-Anhalt

Germany's federal government and its state-level intelligence agencies have been in a private dispute since the start of the US-Israeli war with Iran over how bluntly to warn the public about Iran-sponsored attacks on German soil, the New York Times reported on May 7, citing 11 German intelligence officials, former officials and lawmakers who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive security matters. Chancellor Friedrich Merz and Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt have publicly acknowledged Iranian threats tied to the war but cast them as largely hypothetical, while intelligence chiefs — particularly regional officials inside state governments — told the paper the threats are more concrete and urgent. Five senior officials described that gap; four of them said the disagreement has created tensions between the federal level and the Länder.

The argument has practical roots. Germany has provided critical support for the US campaign in the Middle East, including unfettered use of American military bases on German soil, and that role places Berlin firmly in the camp of the enemy as far as Iranian leaders are concerned. Officials told the Times the active concern of the security services is bombings or hybrid attacks carried out by proxy agents recruited by Tehran, against the backdrop of higher energy costs, dampened economic growth and inflamed trans-Atlantic tensions for which European leaders feel they have little leverage to push back.

On the economic front, the European Commission on Wednesday cleared a €5 billion German state-aid scheme to help energy-intensive industries shift to climate-friendly production. The funding will be allocated through competitive tenders judged on cost efficiency and will target sectors including chemicals, metals, paper, glass and cement. Projects must cut emissions by at least 50 percent within four years and 85 percent by the end of the 15-year contract period — a structure that pairs an unusually long horizon with the kind of conditionality Brussels has been pushing into national subsidy regimes.

Domestic politics delivered the day's third storyline. A new Infratest dimap poll for Saxony-Anhalt put the Alternative for Germany on 41 percent — a record for the party in any state — with the CDU under state premier Sven Schulze on 26 percent, the Left Party on 12 percent and the SPD on 7 percent. Sixty-two percent of respondents told the pollster they were dissatisfied with the current state government. The vote is on September 6, four months out, and the figures place a Land that has been a CDU-led coalition since 2021 at the centre of the question of whether AfD-led state government becomes a working possibility this autumn.