Berlin's state intelligence chiefs warn of urgent Iran-linked hybrid-attack threat as Merz and Dobrindt play it down

Germany's federal leaders and its state-level intelligence agencies have been in a private dispute since the start of the US-Israeli war with Iran over how bluntly to warn the public about Iranian-sponsored attacks on German soil, the New York Times reported, citing 11 German intelligence officials, former officials and lawmakers who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive security matters.

Chancellor Friedrich Merz and Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt have publicly acknowledged Iran-linked threats tied to the war but cast them as largely hypothetical. Intelligence chiefs — in particular regional officials inside the state governments — say the threats are more concrete and urgent than those public statements suggest, according to five senior German officials familiar with the discussions. Four of those officials said the gap has created tensions between national and state authorities.

Germany has provided critical support for the US campaign in the Middle East, including unfettered use of American military bases on German soil. That role has, in the view of Iranian leaders, placed Germany in the camp of the enemy. Officials and lawmakers told the Times that Germans and their neighbours now fear they could be targeted for bombings or other "hybrid" attacks carried out by proxy agents recruited by Tehran. Seven of the people interviewed described that scenario as the active concern of the security services.

European leaders were not consulted before the war began and have little say in when it might end, but have been pulled into its fallout regardless. The strain on Berlin extends beyond direct security threats: higher energy costs, dampened economic growth and inflamed trans-Atlantic tensions are all knock-on effects officials cited as compounding the political pressure on the federal government.