Global Security Situation Briefing -

U.S. Caribbean and Pacific Operations

Eastern Pacific Anti-Drug Operation: According to the U.S. Southern Command, U.S. forces launched an assault on a vessel suspected of drug trafficking in the Eastern Pacific yesterday, resulting in 2 deaths and 1 survivor. The Southern Command stated that the U.S. Coast Guard has been notified to initiate search and rescue operations. (The New York Times)
Global Tracking of Sanctioned Oil Tanker: U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseath stated yesterday that during the enforcement of the oil embargo against Venezuela, the U.S. military tracked a sanctioned oil tanker from the Caribbean Sea and subsequently boarded it in the Indian Ocean. "I don't care if we have to go around the world to catch them; we will catch them," he added. (Associated Press)
Energy Minister's Visit to Venezuela Plan: U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright told POLITICO yesterday that he will soon travel to Venezuela to meet with the country's leaders to discuss the future of its state-owned oil company. Wright insisted that the Trump administration's focus on Venezuela is not centered around oil, adding that the country's crude oil reserves were never a significant decision-making factor in the ousting of former President Nicolas Maduro.
Cuban Aviation Fuel Crisis: Following President Trump's announcement last month of further measures to halt oil shipments to Cuba, the Cuban government notified airlines yesterday that its aviation fuel is running out. Air Canada announced the suspension of 16 weekly flights to four Cuban cities and stated it will dispatch empty planes to Cuba to repatriate approximately 3000 Canadian citizens currently on the island. (The New York Times)

Iran

Progress of the Muscat Meeting: The spokesperson for the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated today: The Muscat meeting was not lengthy. We believe that this meeting aimed to assess the attitude of the United States and explore how to continue advancing the diplomatic process. He added: After the talks, we felt that both sides have reached a consensus to continue promoting the diplomatic process. Ali Larijani, Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, will meet with Omani Foreign Minister Badr Al Busaidi today for follow-up consultations on developments in regional and international situations. (Reuters)
Strait of Hormuz Navigation Warning: The U.S. Department of Transportation's Maritime Administration issued guidance yesterday to commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, advising ships to stay as far away from Iranian territorial waters as possible without compromising navigational safety. (Reuters)

Israel-Hamas war

Gaza Airstrike Casualties: Health officials reported that yesterday's Israeli airstrike on an apartment in Gaza City resulted in the deaths of three Palestinians and killed a farmer in Deir al-Balah. The Israeli military stated that earlier that day, their forces killed four militants in Rafah, southern Gaza. Hamas has not yet commented on the incident, but some sources indicated that one of the deceased was Anas al-Nashar, the son of senior Hamas official Issa al-Nashar.
Post-ceasefire Conflict Data: The Gaza Health Ministry reports that at least 580 Palestinians have been killed by Israeli artillery fire since the ceasefire agreement was reached in October. The Israeli side states that four soldiers were killed by militants in Gaza during the same period. (Reuters)

Developments in the Russia-Ukraine situation

Estonian Intelligence Assessment: The annual report released today by the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service stated that Russia has no intention of launching a military attack against any NATO country this year or next, but as Europe intensifies its rearmament, Russia is accelerating the rebuilding of its military forces. Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service Director Kaupo Rosin told reporters: We see that the Russian leadership is very focused on... Europe's rearmament, and they believe Europe may take independent military action against Russia within two to three years. (Reuters)
Putin's Negotiation Strategy: Rosin also told reporters that Moscow believes it can outmaneuver Washington in negotiations on how to end the war in Ukraine. He added that, according to intelligence, there has been no discussion at all about how to engage in meaningful cooperation with the United States. Rosin said that Russian President Putin still believes he can ultimately achieve a military victory (in Ukraine) at some point. (Associated Press)

Sudan Civil War

Ethiopian Secret Training Camp: According to multiple sources, Ethiopia has secretly established a training camp to train thousands of fighters for the Sudanese Rapid Support Forces. Eight sources stated that the United Arab Emirates funded the construction of the camp and provided it with military instructors and logistical support. An internal memo from the Ethiopian security department and a diplomatic cable seen by Reuters also confirmed this claim. In response to a request for comment, the UAE Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that it is not a party to the conflict.

Other Global Development Trends

Libyan Migrant Boat Capsizes: The International Organization for Migration stated yesterday that a rubber boat carrying 55 passengers, including two infants, capsized near the Libyan coast on Friday. The only two survivors are Nigerian women, who have been rescued by Libyan authorities. The International Organization for Migration reported that by 2026, nearly 500 migrants have died or gone missing while attempting to cross the Mediterranean Sea from Libya. (BBC)

American relations

U.S.-Canada Border Bridge Dispute: Trump stated on social media yesterday that he would prevent the Gordie Howe International Bridge, connecting the United States and Canada, from opening until the U.S. receives full compensation for all its contributions. Trump pointed out that Canada's hostility toward the U.S. and its relationship with China are key issues. (POLITICO)
NATO Command Transfer: According to a Reuters report yesterday, a military source revealed that the United States will hand over two key NATO command centers located in Naples, Italy, and Norfolk, Virginia, to European officers. Allies have reached an agreement on the redistribution of senior officer responsibilities within NATO's command structure, allowing European allies to play a more significant role in the alliance's military leadership.
Vice President Visits Armenia: U.S. Vice President John Dean Vance made a historic visit to Armenia yesterday, marking the first visit to Armenia by a sitting U.S. President or Vice President. The trip aims to promote economic cooperation and support the U.S.-mediated peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Vance will travel to Azerbaijan today. (Associated Press)
ICE Arrest Data: According to an internal Department of Homeland Security document obtained by CBS News, less than 14% of the nearly 400,000 immigrants arrested by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in the first year of Trump's return to the White House were charged with or convicted of violent crimes.
Campus Activist Verdict: According to Ozcelik's lawyer, an immigration judge ruled last month that the Department of Homeland Security failed to prove that Tufts University doctoral student Ozcelik should be deported and terminated her proceedings. Ozcelik was arrested last year as part of the Trump administration's actions targeting pro-Palestinian campus activists. (Reuters)
Epstein Case Hearing: Jeffrey Epstein's long-term partner Ghislaine Maxwell refused to answer any questions during a hearing of the House Oversight Committee yesterday. Maxwell invoked her Fifth Amendment right against self-incrimination, avoiding each question. Her lawyer stated that she would only answer questions after receiving a pardon from President Trump. (The New York Times)
Unredacted File Review: Representatives Thomas Massie (Republican) and Ro Khanna (Democrat) stated yesterday, after reviewing the unredacted files, that the Department of Justice had redacted the names of at least six men who could potentially be implicated due to their appearance in the Epstein case files. The lawmakers suggested that these names be disclosed during a House session. (Axios)
Vote Lawsuit Ruling: A judge in Georgia dismissed one of three civil lawsuits related to Fulton County ballots yesterday and suspended another lawsuit. The judge expressed dissatisfaction with the FBI's seizure of ballots last month, urging relevant authorities to ensure the integrity and reliability of the records. (The New York Times)
Bannon Case Dismissal Request: The Department of Justice requested the Supreme Court yesterday to remand Steve Bannon's case back to the district court for a new trial. Previously, U.S. prosecutors had filed a motion seeking to dismiss the charges against him. Deputy Attorney General Todd Branch stated that this move is a correction to the previous administration's weaponization of the judicial system. (The Washington Post)

Actions of the Trump administration

AI Data Center Agreement: According to two government officials, the Trump administration wants technology companies to publicly commit to a new agreement aimed at regulating the expansion of AI data centers, ensuring they do not drive up household electricity prices or harm grid reliability. Companies driving demand growth will bear the costs of building new infrastructure. (POLITICO)
Repeal of Greenhouse Gas Endangerment Finding: The Trump administration plans to repeal the 2009 endangerment finding this week, which determined that six greenhouse gases pose a threat to public health. EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin stated this is equivalent to the largest deregulatory action in U.S. history. (The Wall Street Journal)
Investigating the 2020 Election: Trump has instructed top U.S. intelligence agencies to share sensitive intelligence regarding the 2020 election with former campaign lawyer Kurt Olsen. Olsen is currently leading an investigation into whether there was fraud in the 2020 election results. The White House explained that the President has the authority to grant individuals access to classified materials. (POLITICO)
Funding Freedom of Speech Initiatives: U.S. Deputy Secretary of State for Public Diplomacy, Sarah Rogers, stated yesterday that the Trump administration will fund various initiatives aimed at promoting freedom of speech in Western countries allied with Washington and will discuss issues of freedom of speech and digital freedom in multiple European nations. (Reuters)

Trump Administration Lawsuit

Termination of Temporary Protected Status: Yesterday, a federal appeals court allowed the Trump administration to proceed with its plan to terminate Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for over 60,000 immigrants from Nepal, Honduras, and Nicaragua. (The New York Times)
California Mask Ban Lawsuit: Yesterday, a federal judge issued a preliminary injunction blocking a California law that prohibits federal law enforcement officers from wearing masks. She ruled the law unconstitutional because it exempts state law enforcement officers, constituting discrimination. The judge also upheld a companion measure requiring law enforcement officers to show identification. (The New York Times)