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Global Security Situation Brief

10/02/2026

  • Uranium Enrichment Negotiations: Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated yesterday that recognizing Iran's right to uranium enrichment is key to the success of nuclear negotiations with the United States, adding that no one has the right to tell the Iranian people what they should or should not have. A diplomat told Reuters on Friday that Tehran is willing to discuss the level and purity of uranium enrichment, provided that Iran is allowed to conduct enrichment on its territory, granted sanctions relief, and given military de-escalation. (Reuters)
  • Summit Meeting: According to the office of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Netanyahu is expected to meet with U.S. President Donald Trump in Washington on Wednesday to discuss negotiations with Iran. A White House official stated that Netanyahu was originally scheduled to meet with Trump on February 18, but he requested an earlier visit. (Axios)

Israel-Hamas war

  • Rafah Crossing: According to Egyptian state media, the Rafah Crossing reopened yesterday after being closed for two days, with only a small number of Palestinians traveling between Gaza and Egypt. United Nations data shows that in the first four days after the crossing opened, only 36 Palestinians in need of medical treatment and their 62 accompanying personnel were permitted to travel to Egypt. (Associated Press)
  • Gaza Reconstruction Conference: According to an invitation letter obtained by The New York Times, Trump's Peace Commission is scheduled to hold a meeting in Washington on February 19. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban is the first head of state to publicly confirm his attendance. An official told Axios that the meeting will focus on fundraising for the reconstruction of Gaza. Another source stated: It has not been finalized yet, but the government is planning this conference and has begun confirming which leaders can attend. (Axios)
  • Responsibility Attribution: Netanyahu released a 55-page document last week, seemingly blaming other officials for security and intelligence failures prior to the Hamas-led attack on October 7, 2023. (The New York Times)

Violent incidents in the West Bank

  • Control Measures: The Israeli Security Cabinet approved a series of measures yesterday aimed at deepening Israel's control over the occupied West Bank. Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich announced that these measures would make it easier for Jewish settlers to force Palestinians to abandon their land, adding, "We will continue to strangle the idea of Palestinian statehood." These measures include lifting the ban on selling West Bank land to Israeli Jews, declassifying West Bank land registry records to streamline land seizure processes, transferring planning authority for construction at religious sites in Hebron and other sensitive locations to Israeli authorities, and allowing Israel to enforce environmental and archaeological matters within Palestinian jurisdictions. (Associated Press)

Developments in the Russia-Ukraine situation

  • Drone Attack: Ukrainian officials stated today that Russia launched drone attacks across Ukraine last night, resulting in at least four deaths, including a mother and her 10-year-old son, and leaving tens of thousands without power. (Reuters)
  • Damage to Energy Facilities: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that Russia also deployed over 400 drones and approximately 40 missiles on Saturday, launching further attacks on Ukraine's energy sector. (Reuters)
  • Prospects of a Peace Agreement: Zelensky told reporters on Saturday that the United States hopes Russia and Ukraine will sign a peace agreement to end the war before June, aiming to complete it before Trump shifts his focus to the U.S. midterm elections. Zelensky also stated that the rhetoric of the Russian delegation in Abu Dhabi last week has changed, no longer dwelling on historical disputes but engaging in concrete discussions about the actions they are willing to take. (Axios)

the Israel-Hezbollah

  • Cross-border Operation: According to Israeli military and Lebanese state media reports, the Israeli military arrested a local official of a Sunni Islamic group, an ally of Hamas, in southern Lebanon and brought him back to Israel for interrogation. Additionally, on the same day, an Israeli drone struck a car in southern Lebanon, resulting in the deaths of three people, including a child. Israel has not yet commented on the incident. (Associated Press)

Sudan Civil War

  • Civilian Casualties: According to the Sudanese Doctors Network, a drone attack launched by the Sudanese Rapid Support Forces paramilitary group on Saturday resulted in at least 24 deaths, including 8 children. The group stated that the target of the attack was a vehicle transporting displaced individuals fleeing the conflict in the Dubekir area. (Associated Press)

Other Global Development Trends

  • Japan's General Election: Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi won an overwhelming victory yesterday, securing an absolute majority in the House of Representatives, which has 465 seats. The Liberal Democratic Party, led by Sanae Takaichi, won 316 seats, a significant increase from the previous 198 seats. (The New York Times)
  • Syria-Saudi Agreement: Syria and Saudi Arabia signed billions of dollars worth of investment agreements on Saturday, including a major telecommunications project, a low-cost joint venture airline, and the construction of an international airport in northern Syria. (Associated Press)
  • Pakistan Attack: On Friday, an assailant opened fire and detonated a suicide bomb at a Shia mosque in Islamabad, resulting in at least 31 deaths and over 170 injuries. The Islamic State group claimed responsibility for the attack in a statement posted on social media. (Reuters)
  • UK Politics: UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer's Chief of Staff, Morgan McSweeney, resigned yesterday due to his significant role in the appointment of Jeffrey Epstein's friend, Peter Mandelson, as the UK Ambassador to the United States. McSweeney stated: When asked about the matter, I advised the Prime Minister to make this appointment, and I take full responsibility for that advice. (The New York Times)
  • Bosnian Political Situation: Sinisa Karan, a close ally of former President of Republika Srpska Milorad Dodik, declared victory yesterday in a partial re-election for the presidential election. Karan had already won the presidential election held in November, a position that is largely symbolic. His opponent, Branko Blanusac, the candidate of the Serb Democratic Party, conceded defeat in Sunday's re-election but accused the ruling party of vote-buying and election manipulation. (Reuters)
  • Haiti Situation: The Haitian Transitional Presidential Council announced its resignation on Saturday after nearly two years of joint governance with Haitian Prime Minister Alix Didier Fils-Aimé. Fils-Aimé is expected to remain in office. He stated on Saturday evening that elections will be held and an emergency humanitarian aid plan will be formulated. Two years ago, Haiti had planned to hold elections this weekend, but they could not proceed as scheduled due to gang violence sweeping across most of the country. (Associated Press)
  • Nicaragua Visa: Nicaragua yesterday prohibited Cuban citizens from entering the country without holding a visa. This move effectively severs the connection between Cubans and Nicaragua, which has long served as a bridge for migrants heading to the United States. (Associated Press)

U.S. Caribbean and Pacific Operations

  • Venezuela: According to multiple sources, Venezuela released at least 35 political prisoners yesterday, including several prominent opposition leaders. However, one of the most well-known figures, Juan Pablo Guanipa, was rearrested just hours later. Guanipa's son stated on social media that his father was kidnapped by a group of armed individuals and remains missing as of this morning. The Venezuelan Public Prosecutor's Office stated in a declaration that it has requested the court to revoke Guanipa's release, citing his failure to comply with the conditions set by the court. (The New York Times)

American relations

  • UN Membership Dues: U.S. Permanent Representative to the United Nations Mike Waltz stated on Friday that the United States will make an initial payment to repay its billions of dollars in debt owed to the UN. Waltz said: "This will be a substantial... advance payment of annual dues... I believe the final amount has not been determined yet." UN officials indicated that the U.S. owes over 95% of the UN's regular budget—amounting to 2.19 billion dollars as of early February. Additionally, the U.S. owes 2.4 billion dollars for current and past peacekeeping operations, and 43.6 million dollars for UN tribunals. (Reuters)
  • ICE Official Retires: Jim Story, the chief counsel for Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in Minnesota, left his position last week. Story has not publicly stated the reason for his departure, but emails sent to his government email address received automatic replies stating he has retired from public service. Tricia McLaughlin, a spokesperson for the Department of Homeland Security, confirmed on Saturday that Story retired after 31 years of service with the agency. (The New York Times)
  • New York Sanctuary Law: New York Mayor Zoran Mamdani issued an executive order on Friday reaffirming the city's sanctuary laws and directing public agencies, including the New York Police Department, to undergo new training regarding sanctuary restrictions. McLaughlin responded to this, stating: Mamdani's policy will directly threaten the safety of New York City residents. (POLITICO)
  • Epstein Files: According to a letter obtained by Axios, the Department of Justice will allow members of Congress to review the unredacted version of the recently released 3 million documents related to Jeffrey Epstein. Assistant Attorney General Patrick Davis wrote in the letter that House members and Senators will gain access to the unredacted versions of these files starting today.
  • DOJ Complaint: The Democracy Defenders Foundation filed a complaint with the Department of Justice on Friday, alleging that it improperly narrowed the scope of documents that must be disclosed under the Epstein Files Transparency Act. The complaint stated it is deeply troubling that only a few of their communications appear in the files, despite Attorney General Pam Bundy, Deputy Attorney General Todd Branch, and FBI Director Kash Patel being involved in the work of releasing these archives to the public. (Axios)
  • Staff Turnover: According to data from the U.S. Office of Personnel Management, the number of employees at the Department of Justice decreased by 8% between November 2024 and November 2025. Some departments are severely understaffed, forcing the Department of Justice to deploy military lawyers or transfer officials from other departments to areas in urgent need of personnel. (The New York Times)
  • Governors Meeting: According to the National Governors Association (NGA), Trump plans to exclude Democrats from the traditional bipartisan meeting of governors held at the White House. This meeting is part of the NGA's annual Washington summit. NGA's interim CEO, Brandon Tatum, issued a statement on Friday, saying that the White House bipartisan governors meeting is an important tradition, and we are disappointed by this administration's decision to turn it into a partisan meeting this year. (The Washington Post)

Actions of the Trump administration

  • Social Media Cleanup: The U.S. Department of State is deleting all posts published before Donald Trump returns to the White House on January 20, 2025, from its public accounts on the social media platform X. According to a State Department staff member, anyone wishing to view old posts must file a request under the Freedom of Information Act. In response to NPR's inquiry about the deletion, a State Department spokesperson stated that this move aims to reduce public confusion about U.S. government policies and to advance the goals and messaging of the President, the Secretary of State, and this administration with a unified voice.
  • Intelligence Director Complaint: According to sources, the whistleblower complaint against National Intelligence Director Tulsi Gabbard originated from an intercepted conversation in which individuals associated with a foreign government discussed a person closely connected to Trump. Some sources indicated that the discussion involved matters related to Iran. The complaint alleges that Gabbard restricted the sharing of this intelligence for political reasons after meeting with White House Chief of Staff Susie Wills. (The Wall Street Journal)
  • Terminating the Harvard Program: Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth announced on Friday that the Pentagon will terminate Harvard University's graduate-level professional military education, fellowship programs, and certificate courses for the 2026-2027 academic year. Hegseth stated that sending personnel to Harvard meant too many officers returned "too much like Harvard"—filled with globalist and activist ideologies, which does not help enhance the combat effectiveness of our military. (The Washington Post)

Trump Administration Lawsuit

  • Detention Policy: On Friday, a federal appeals court ruled that the Trump administration's policy of detaining individuals slated for deportation without providing bail opportunities is legal. The fact that previous administrations chose not to utilize their full enforcement authority... does not mean they lacked the power to take further action, a judge stated. (POLITICO)
  • Railway Funds: On Friday, a federal judge ordered the Trump administration to unfreeze billions of dollars in funding for the Gateway Rail Tunnel project. The Department of Transportation appealed the ruling yesterday. (POLITICO)