Reopening of the Kerem Shalom Crossing: Strategic Maneuvering and Humanitarian Dilemmas Behind the Limited Opening

In late January 2026, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced that the Rafah border crossing connecting the Gaza Strip with Egypt would soon reopen. Since Israeli forces seized and closed the crossing in May 2024, the only non-Israeli passage from the besieged coastal enclave to the outside world had been cut off for nearly two years. The reopening is placed within the framework of the second phase of the U.S.-brokered Israel-Hamas ceasefire agreement, with the specific operational date set for a Sunday in late January or early February. For the approximately 20,000 sick and injured individuals inside Gaza who urgently need to leave for medical treatment, as well as the more than 30,000 people stranded in places like Cairo who have registered with the Palestinian embassy hoping to return home, this glimmer of light brings long-awaited yet fragile hope. However, the conditions set by Netanyahu are extremely stringent: initially, only a few dozen to two hundred people will be allowed to cross daily, cargo transportation will remain closed for the time being, and Israel retains final authority over the screening of all individuals entering and exiting.

The specific arrangements and power structure for the reopening of the Rafah Crossing.

According to cross-verification from multiple sources, the Rafah crossing is expected to reopen at some point between late January and early February 2026 for two-way passenger traffic. An anonymous Israeli military official told the Associated Press that the opening will occur within the coming days. On January 22, Ali Shas, the newly appointed head of the administrative committee responsible for Gaza's daily affairs by the Palestinian side, stated that the crossing will open in both directions next week. A more specific date points to January 26 (Sunday), as mentioned by both the Israeli media website Walla and a source from the Palestinian Authority.

There are differing accounts regarding the initial daily passage quota. An Israeli official stated that 50 people were allowed to enter Gaza daily, while 50 others could leave. However, another source familiar with the discussions indicated that 50 people were permitted to enter each day, with 150 allowed to depart. Even based on the higher estimate of 200 daily crossings, given the Gaza Health Ministry's report of approximately 20,000 sick and injured individuals requiring medical evacuation, completing the entire process would take over 100 days. If calculated at a rate of 50 medical evacuations per day, it would require more than a year. Medical evacuees are typically allowed accompanying personnel, with reports suggesting that each patient may be permitted up to two companions. Currently, at least 30,000 Palestinians have registered at the Palestinian embassy in Cairo, hoping to return to Gaza.

The management of the crossing will present a complex model of superficial diversity and substantive control. In form, a network consisting of Egypt, the Palestinian Authority, and the EU Border Assistance Mission (EUBAM Rafah) will be responsible for the operation of the crossing. Plainclothes officials from the Palestinian Authority will handle passport stamping, as was the case before Hamas took control of Gaza in 2007 and during the brief ceasefire in early 2025. However, substantive security control remains firmly in Israel's hands. Egypt will submit a daily list of individuals intending to cross to Israel, which will be reviewed by Israel's domestic security agency (Shin Bet), which holds the final say on who may pass. According to the terms of the ceasefire agreement, the Israel Defense Forces control the area between the Rafah crossing and Gaza's main residential zones. COGAT, the Israeli military body coordinating aid to Gaza, will transport individuals to and from the crossing by bus. Although Israeli soldiers will not be physically present at the crossing checkpoint itself, all individuals entering or exiting will undergo Israeli security screening within Gaza. Netanyahu stated unequivocally on January 21: Anyone entering or leaving must undergo our inspection, a comprehensive inspection.

The Rafah Crossing in Historical Context and the Strategic Intent Behind Its Current Reopening

The fate of the Rafah crossing has always been closely tied to regional politics. Even before the outbreak of the war in October 2023, the movement of Gaza residents was already strictly restricted. According to United Nations data, in 2022, the Rafah crossing recorded over 133,000 entries and 144,000 exits, but this includes multiple trips by the same individuals. That year, Egyptian authorities allowed goods imports for 150 days, with a total of more than 32,000 truckloads of goods entering. After Hamas took control of Gaza in 2007, Egypt, together with Israel, imposed a blockade. The crossing reopened temporarily following the Egyptian revolution in 2011, but it was closed again in 2013 after the Egyptian military ousted President Morsi, who came from the Muslim Brotherhood (the ideological source of Hamas). In the following years, Egypt gradually permitted the reopening of the crossing, but intermittent restrictions gave rise to a vast underground tunnel economy. According to Israeli and Egyptian officials, these tunnels became the economic lifeline of Gaza, as well as a channel for weapons and cash. Hamas collects tens of millions of dollars in taxes and fees each month from goods passing through the crossing.

The current reopening is a key action by Israel, under U.S. promotion, as part of the second phase of the ceasefire agreement. The core task of the first phase—retrieving the remains of all detained personnel—was completed this week. The second phase involves more complex and challenging content, including disarming Hamas, destroying its remaining tunnels, establishing an international peacekeeping force, and forming a technocratic governance body. Netanyahu has explicitly placed the limited opening of the Rafah crossing under the primary goal of demilitarizing Gaza. He insists that without demilitarization, there can be no reconstruction. This makes Israel's final authority over the movement of personnel at the Rafah crossing a crucial strategic lever. By controlling the only gateway of this enclave to non-Israeli areas, Israel aims to deeply influence Gaza's future demographic composition, economic recovery, and political arrangements, while preventing Hamas from regaining strength through the flow of personnel and supplies. Egypt, on the other hand, is eager to demonstrate its key role in mediation and hopes to stabilize the border situation in the Sinai Peninsula to prevent the spillover of Gaza's humanitarian crisis.

The Humanitarian Reality Behind Limited Opening and Future Uncertainties

For the 2.3 million residents of the Gaza Strip, the reopening of the Rafah crossing has cast a faint glimmer of light in the midst of brutal reality, yet this light is far from enough to illuminate the profound suffering. The description by Shurooq (31), a Gaza staff member of Save the Children, reveals a common mindset: I haven’t seen people this optimistic in over two years. Just knowing it might open is a relief for everyone in Gaza. Her husband died two weeks after the war began, and she has been displaced nine times with her three-year-old daughter, currently living in a tent in Deir al-Balah. She points out that the humanitarian situation in Gaza is catastrophic: cities are completely destroyed, infrastructure is nonexistent, the education system has collapsed, many hospitals have been utterly devastated, and those still partially functioning are severely lacking in medical supplies. In the harsh winter, people living in flimsy tents are struggling, and The Guardian reports that eight children have already died from the cold.

However, the limited passage quota is like a drop in the bucket compared to the enormous current demand. Apart from the 20,000 sick and wounded, a large number of students, individuals separated from their families, and those hoping to go out to make a living or pursue education are trapped in this open-air prison. Alexandra Saieh, Head of Global Strategy and Policy at Save the Children, pointed out that Israel's plan to control the movement of people in and out is extremely concerning. She called for the opening to be unconditional, emphasizing that people should have the right to move freely. On January 22, UN Deputy Spokesperson Stéphane Dujarric stated that the United Nations hopes the crossings will be open for both humanitarian and private sector goods, which is crucial for reviving Gaza's economy. During a Security Council meeting, UN Deputy Middle East Coordinator Ramesh Rajasingham noted that humanitarian workers are facing delays and denials of goods at crossings, as well as limited transportation routes within Gaza.

Greater uncertainty lies in when the cargo passage will open. Netanyahu has clearly stated that the initial opening is limited to personnel and does not include cargo. For Gaza, which urgently needs large-scale imports of food, medicine, fuel, and reconstruction materials, this means the basic survival crisis is far from over. Humanitarian organizations report that no aid trucks have been able to enter since March 2025. The port infrastructure itself is also severely damaged, with Palestinian sources claiming it is completely destroyed and will require time to repair. Whether the passage capacity will be increased in the future, when the cargo passage will open, what items will be allowed to be carried, and how long this arrangement will last—all these questions currently have no clear answers.

Fragile Pathways and Future Directions under Regional Game Theory

The limited reopening of the Rafah crossing is a move in the complex post-war chess game in Gaza. It is both a tactical concession made by Israel under international pressure and a carefully designed effort to maintain strategic dominance. Through a multilateral but ultimately self-controlled review mechanism, Israel seeks to strike a balance between meeting minimal humanitarian needs and achieving security objectives. For Hamas, although it criticizes Israel for gaining indirect security control through list reviews, it has little substantive capacity to oppose under the current circumstances. For the Palestinian Authority and the newly established Gaza Administrative Committee, this is an opportunity to return to management roles, but their room for action is entirely constrained by Israel’s approval. The return of the EU Border Assistance Mission symbolizes the international community’s expectation for the normalization of border management, but its effectiveness depends on the cooperation of all parties, especially Israel.

From a broader perspective, whether the Rafah crossing can evolve from a strictly controlled gap into a genuine passage connecting Gaza with the world will directly test the implementation of the second phase of the ceasefire agreement and foreshadow the future fate of Gaza. Will it merely become a controlled exit for evacuating people, or can it develop into a lifeline supporting economic recovery? The answer will be written in the subsequent negotiations concerning cargo passage, quota adjustments, and long-term management mechanisms. For now, for Gaza's Shurook and her daughter, as well as the thousands of injured awaiting treatment and displaced individuals longing to return home, they can only cling to this limited hope, waiting in the ruins for a future that remains uncertain. As Shurook said, all of her daughter's birthdays have been spent in war. The gates of the Rafah crossing are about to rise, but the road beyond remains long and fraught with thorns.