The Russia-Ukraine war casualties approach 2 million: The strategic stalemate and future trajectory of a war of attrition.

A report released by the Center for Strategic and International Studies on January 27 estimated that since the full-scale invasion in February 2022, the total number of Russian military casualties and missing personnel in Ukraine has reached approximately 1.2 million, with up to 325,000 deaths. Ukraine, on the other hand, has suffered military losses of 500,000 to 600,000, including 100,000 to 140,000 soldiers killed. This means that the total military casualties on both sides of the conflict, which is about to enter its fifth year, have reached 1.8 million and may surpass the 2 million mark by the spring of 2026. The Kremlin quickly dismissed the report as unreliable, insisting that only the Russian Ministry of Defense has the authority to release casualty data. However, this study, based on interviews with Western and Ukrainian officials as well as open-source data from BBC Russian Service and independent media Mediazona, paints a picture of a brutal war of attrition unlike anything experienced by a major power since World War II.

The Historical Contrast and Battlefield Reality Behind the Casualty Figures

From any historical perspective, the losses of the Russian military in Ukraine are staggering. The report indicates that the battlefield fatalities of the Russian military in Ukraine are more than 17 times the Soviet losses in Afghanistan during the 1980s, 11 times the losses in the First and Second Chechen Wars, and over five times the total losses of Russia and the Soviet Union in all wars since World War II (including the Afghan War). NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte revealed earlier this month at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, that in December alone, the Russian military suffered 35,000 fatalities in a single month, equivalent to approximately 48 soldiers dying per hour. Ukrainian Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov later added that these losses have been verified with video evidence.

Although Russian military losses far exceed those of Ukraine, with a ratio roughly between 2.5:1 and 2:1, Ukraine's situation remains equally severe. For a country with a population much smaller than Russia's, the ability to sustain nearly 600,000 troop losses while continuing mobilization is approaching its limit. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy revealed to American media in February last year that approximately 46,000 Ukrainian soldiers had been killed, but analysts widely believe this figure is significantly underestimated. More critically, the shadow of hundreds of thousands of soldiers missing or captured continues to loom over Kyiv. Both sides treat casualty data as top secret, which in itself reflects the deep pressure the war exerts on their respective social structures.

The progress on the battlefield is severely disproportionate to the cost incurred. Reports indicate that since 2024, the average daily advance speed of Russian forces in their primary offensives has been only 15 to 70 meters, slower than almost any major offensive campaign in modern warfare. In key directions such as Chasiv Yar, Kupiansk, and Pokrovsk in the Donbas region, the Russian forces' average daily advance distances are 16 yards, 25 yards, and 76 yards, respectively. This pace is even slower than that of the bloodiest battle of World War I, the Battle of the Somme—where the British and French forces advanced less than 90 yards per day over five months. In terms of territorial gains, since January 2024, Russian forces have seized only about 1.5% of Ukraine's territory and currently control approximately 20% of the country's land. The authors of the report state plainly: the data show that it is difficult to claim that Russia is winning this war.

Mobilization Dilemma and Economic Costs under Strategic Stalemate

The heavy casualties forced both sides to adopt drastically different strategies for troop replenishment. Russia turned to generous payments and expanding benefit packages to recruit new soldiers. Enlistment bonuses offered by local authorities, in some cases, amounted to tens of thousands of dollars. The Kremlin also recruited thousands from Asia, South America, and Africa, many of whom were lured by misleading promises or subjected to pressure. James Ford, the UK's deputy ambassador to the OSCE, pointed out last week that Russian military casualties, including the dead and wounded, have now exceeded sustainable recruitment and replenishment rates. At Davos, Zelensky revealed that Moscow is still able to mobilize between 40,000 and 43,000 new recruits per month.

Ukraine's mobilization faces greater political and social resistance. Kyiv has been striving to recruit sufficient personnel to replenish depleted forces, while Zelensky has resisted calls to further lower the mobilization age from 25, a move that would be highly unpopular domestically. The war consumes human resources on both sides. Data from the Ukrainian monitoring group DeepState shows that from January 1 to 25 this year, Russian forces occupied only 152 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory, marking the slowest advance since March last year. Winter conditions and Ukraine's resilient resistance have brought progress to a near standstill.

The economic cost of the war is equally heavy. The report suggests that the war in Ukraine has effectively removed Russia from the ranks of global economic powers. Russia is becoming a second- or third-tier economic power, with the report citing signs such as a decline in manufacturing, weak consumer demand, high inflation, and labor shortages, pointing out that Russia's economic growth rate in 2025 is only 0.6%. The war not only drags down the current economy but also damages its long-term prospects. Although materials such as ammunition, military uniforms, and fortifications are counted in GDP, they do not contribute to improving long-term welfare or capital formation, the report states. The impact of sanctions on energy companies and the financial system, declining foreign investment, sluggish productivity growth, and inflation that peaked near 10% before falling to 5.6% together paint the true picture of a war economy. Hundreds of thousands of veterans set to return, many of whom are convicted criminals who exchanged pardons for frontline service, will bring pension payments and potential social issues, particularly having profound effects on Russia's poorer regions.

Civilian casualties and the geopolitical dilemma of prolonged conflict.

The heavy losses of military personnel are just the tip of the iceberg. A report released by the United Nations Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine in early January pointed out that 2025 was the deadliest year for civilians since the first year of the invasion in 2022, with over 2,500 civilian deaths. Since February 24, 2022, the United Nations has verified nearly 15,000 Ukrainian civilian deaths and 40,600 injuries. However, due to difficulties in accessing certain areas, especially during the first few months of the Russian invasion, the actual numbers are likely much higher. On the same day the report was released, Ukrainian authorities reported that Russian attacks on energy facilities and a passenger train resulted in 11 deaths and dozens of injuries. Zelensky stated on Telegram that the targeted train was carrying 200 passengers, and the attack in the Kharkiv region caused 3 deaths. There is no military justification for attacking civilian train carriages, nor could there ever be. He accused the latest bombing of undermining peace efforts and called on allies to exert greater pressure on Moscow to end the war.

Despite the staggering casualty figures, the prospects for peace remain bleak. Last weekend, Russia, Ukraine, and the United States held their first peace talks in Abu Dhabi since the full-scale invasion, but no signs of a breakthrough emerged, as the Kremlin continues to insist on its maximalist territorial demands in Ukraine. The report analysis suggests that although the report paints a pessimistic outlook for Russia, Putin is unlikely to accept a peace agreement without greater pressure from the West on his regime. The United States and Europe have failed to sufficiently wield economic or military sticks. Without greater pain, Putin will drag out negotiations and continue fighting—even if it means millions of casualties among Russians and Ukrainians. The report concludes. On the Ukrainian side, there is a determination to continue exhausting the opponent. Defense Minister Fedorov outlined a strategic objective: If we can inflict monthly losses of 50,000 on the enemy forces, we will see what happens to the enemy. They view people as a resource, and the shortage is already evident.

From a broader geopolitical perspective, this war has reshaped the European security order and continues to impact the global balance of power. Russia is depleting its military human resources and economic potential at a rate unseen among major powers since World War 2, yet has achieved only negligible territorial gains. Ukraine has demonstrated remarkable resilience in enduring sacrifices, but the long-term support commitments from its Western allies are being tested by internal political variables. The nature of the war has evolved from an initially envisioned blitzkrieg into a 21st-century model of attrition warfare, combining trench warfare, drone warfare, long-range precision strikes, and electronic warfare. Both societies are learning to coexist with a conflict that shows no clear endpoint.

The front lines inch forward meter by meter through the muddy terrain of the Donbas, while the casualty count approaches the chilling milestone of 2 million. Behind each casualty estimate lies a shattered family from an Eastern European village or a Russian town. This report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington reads less like a military analysis and more like a somber testament to the brutal nature of modern warfare. The core question it raises transcends battlefield victory or defeat: When the cost of a conflict so clearly outweighs any possible gain, what logic drives its continuation? The answer may not lie in the frontline trenches, but within the decision-making chambers of Moscow and Kyiv, and on the broader stage of international politics. The war is not yet over, but history’s preliminary judgment has already been drafted within these casualty figures.