The uncertainty of the Trump era accelerated the decoupling of middle powers from the United States.
29/01/2026
In January 2026, the itineraries of European and North American leaders revealed a clear pattern: senior officials from Berlin, Paris, Ottawa, and Brussels were frequently flying to New Delhi and Beijing. German Bundestag President Friedrich Merz, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, and the soon-to-visit French President Emmanuel Macron embarked on successive trips to Asia within just a few months. At the same time, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo also completed their visits to China. This diplomatic surge was not routine annual exchanges; it unfolded against the backdrop of former U.S. President Donald Trump's return to the political center stage, with his tariff and America First policies causing deep anxiety in global markets. These itineraries vividly illustrate a trend: Western middle powers and economies, traditionally reliant on U.S. security guarantees and markets, are systematically reducing their dependence on the United States and accelerating their strategic de-risking processes.
Europe and Canada's Asia Pivot: Seeking Strategic Hedging
Data shows that from the fourth quarter of 2025 to the first quarter of 2026, trade volumes between the EU, Canada, and China showed signs of stabilization after a period of adjustment, while costs resulting from trade frictions with the United States increased significantly. The Trump administration's reintroduction of broad tariff policies, particularly steel and aluminum tariffs targeting allies and potential threats of automotive tariffs, forced Europe and Canada to reassess their economic security. A report from the German Chamber of Commerce and Industry in January indicated that over 40% of German companies are actively seeking supply chain diversification to reduce dependence on the North American market.
This shift is not merely at the economic level. From a strategic perspective, the intensive visits of European leaders to India highlight the consideration of viewing India as an alternative strategic partner. Former Indian diplomat K.P. Fabian analyzed that the fragmentation of northern countries caused by Trump's policies has provided unprecedented space for global southern countries like India. During her visit to New Delhi, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen particularly emphasized shared values and a rules-based order—a formulation typically used in transatlantic relations, now cautiously applied to EU-India relations, reflecting Europe's efforts to find a pivot beyond the United States both psychologically and practically. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney's visits to China and India within three months represent a typical hedging strategy aimed at balancing geopolitical risks and ensuring stable resource export markets and investment channels.
The Rise of Global South Influence and India's New Role
The deeper reason lies in the ongoing evolution of the international power structure. The Global South is no longer merely an object on the international agenda but is increasingly becoming a subject shaping global outcomes. With its sustained economic growth and sophisticated diplomatic positioning, India is emerging as a critical leading voice for the Global South. During its G20 presidency in 2023, India successfully facilitated the inclusion of the African Union as a full member and placed issues such as debt sustainability for developing countries and climate financing at the core of the agenda, thereby enhancing its credibility as a bridging nation.
Analysts point out that India's current role as the rotating chair of BRICS provides it with a platform to shape global norms without directly provoking the West. Fabian suggests that India could skillfully promote the use of its national currency in trade, which serves as a mild challenge to the hegemony of the U.S. dollar while also meeting the needs of many emerging economies to reduce exchange rate risks. India has already begun piloting local currency settlements in trade with countries like the UAE, and such practices are generating a demonstration effect. India's relatively balanced stance on international hotspots such as the Israeli-Palestinian issue, though controversial domestically, has earned it necessary moral capital in the Global South. This diplomatic prudence and pragmatism make India appear to Europe and Canada as a partner with less ideological baggage than China and more predictable policies than the United States.
Trump's unpredictability becomes a strategic accelerator.
In fact, the unpredictability of Trump's foreign policy serves as a direct catalyst for allies to accelerate decoupling or de-risking. His transactional diplomatic style places traditional alliances under repeated cost assessments. Former official Fabian warned that India should remain vigilant against potential proposals from Trump for a peace committee led by him, as Trump might propose solutions to the Kashmir issue to appease Pakistan, where he has business interests. This concern that core interests of allies could be used as bargaining chips is not unique to India. Europe similarly worries that its positions on Ukraine, NATO defense spending, and even trade agreements could become casualties of Trump's domestic political maneuvers.
This sense of insecurity compels middle powers to adopt two parallel strategies: one is to strengthen internal coordination, such as the European Union accelerating defense autonomy and the capital markets union; the other is to build diversified partnership networks externally. The countries on the visit list—India, China, and the UAE—represent different options: India serves as a growth pole under democracy and a geopolitical balancer, China is an indispensable economic partner and a key supplier of critical technologies, while the UAE functions as a financial hub and a crucial node for energy security. This approach of not putting all eggs in one basket aligns precisely with the fundamental logic of risk management.
Future Landscape: An Era of Greater Multipolarity and Pragmatism
This round of diplomatic realignment suggests that global governance over the next decade may move toward a more multipolar and competitive landscape. The Western-led order, including the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, and even the United Nations Security Council, is facing the most severe legitimacy challenge since the end of the Cold War. Countries of the Global South are uniting to question the selective application of international law, the inequalities in the global trade and financial systems, and are demanding greater voice in global decision-making.
For the United States, the loosening of its traditional alliance system poses a long-term strategic risk. In the short term, Trump's policies may secure more favorable bilateral trade terms for the U.S., but in the long run, they are eroding the core assets of American global leadership—trust and reliability. When ministers from Germany and Canada appear more frequently in meeting rooms in New Delhi than on Capitol Hill in Washington, a psychological estrangement has already occurred. Once this estrangement translates into institutionalized cooperative frameworks—such as independent payment systems, energy trading mechanisms bypassing the dollar, or defense cooperation detached from U.S. intelligence-sharing networks—its impact will be structural.
The world has not completely moved away from the United States, as its market, technology, and military power remain irreplaceable. However, the trend is clear: countries are preparing for a future where the U.S. is absent or unpredictable. They are building safety nets by strengthening ties with India, China, and other regional powers. This is not a binary choice of taking sides but a complex and nuanced hedging of risks. The pieces on the global geopolitical chessboard are being repositioned, driven not by ideological fervor but by a sober calculation of uncertainty and an instinctive pursuit of survival and development. In this process, countries like India are seeing their strategic value rediscovered and amplified, while the closeness of traditional transatlantic relations will inevitably enter a new, more flexible phase of adjustment.
Reference materials
https://www.firstpost.com/explainers/how-trump-pushing-world-closer-india-china-13973296.html