Russia-Ukraine War Casualties Approach 10,000: The Heaviest Personnel Losses Among Major Powers Since World War II.

On January 27, 2026, the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington released a report revealing the staggering human cost of the Russia-Ukraine war over nearly four years. Data shows that from the full-scale invasion in February 2022 to December 2025, Russian military casualties and missing persons have reached 1.2 million, with fatalities as high as 325,000. On the Ukrainian side, its smaller military has suffered between 500,000 and 600,000 casualties, including up to 140,000 soldiers killed. Combined military personnel losses for both sides have approached 1.8 million, and if the intensity of the conflict continues, this number will exceed 2 million by the spring of 2026. The report depicts a war of attrition unseen since the end of World War II among major powers in a single conflict.

The "Meat Grinder" on the Battlefield: The Nature of a War of Attrition Behind the Data

The report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies is not an isolated case. Its data integrates the think tank's own analysis, intelligence from the UK Ministry of Defence, statistics from the Russian independent media Mediazona and the BBC Russian Service, as well as interviews with officials from multiple governments. Although Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov dismissed these figures as unreliable and claimed that only the Russian Ministry of Defence has the authority to release casualty data, the Ministry has not updated official statistics since fall 2022, when Sergei Shoigu stated that Russian military losses were nearly 6,000.

Independent sources provide cross-verification. A list compiled by Mediazona, BBC Russian Service, and a team of volunteers, through reviewing obituaries, social media, and government website information, shows that by January 2026, the number of confirmed Russian military fatalities with identifiable names has exceeded 163,000. They acknowledge that the actual figure is likely higher. In an interview with NBC in February 2025, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy revealed that over 46,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed since the war began, but many analysts believe this number is significantly underreported.

Behind these cold numbers lies the near-static brutal attrition on the front lines. The report points out that since the Russian military regained battlefield initiative in 2024, its average advance speed in the most significant offensives has been only 15 to 70 meters per day. Taking the battle for Pokrovsk, a transportation hub in Donetsk Oblast, as an example, Russian forces advanced an average of 70 meters per day. The report's authors wrote that this is slower than any major offensive campaign in any war of the last century, even slower than the bloody Battle of the Somme in World War I. Since January 2024, the Russian military has newly occupied less than 1.5% of Ukraine's total territory.

"High Costs and Minimal Gains": Russia's Strategic Dilemma

Despite claims of momentum on the Ukrainian battlefield, data shows that Russia is paying an extraordinary price for minimal gains and is declining as a major power. This assessment in the CSIS report directly points to the core strategic dilemma facing Moscow. In the words of Christopher Tuck, a conflict and security expert at King's College London, these numbers capture the essential reality: this is a war of attrition, and the human costs are staggering.

Russian President Putin consistently paints a picture of victory in his public speeches. At his annual press conference late last year, he claimed that 700,000 Russian troops were fighting in Ukraine and repeatedly stated that Russian military losses were several times smaller than those of the Ukrainian side. However, there is a clear gap between the reality on the battlefield and the high-level narrative. Professor Phillips O'Brien of Strategic Studies at the University of St Andrews pointed out: The enormous losses Russia has suffered for minimal gains are often seen as a sign of declining military effectiveness. This certainly undermines the claims made by the Trump administration and others that Russia is a great power moving toward inevitable victory.

The economic front is also under pressure. The report suggests that, burdened by the war, Russia is becoming a second- or third-tier economic power. Russia's GDP growth rate in 2025 is only 0.6%. Although Russia still holds an advantage in troop numbers, with a population approximately four times that of Ukraine, enabling it to continuously recruit hundreds of thousands of soldiers, the quality of its personnel is concerning. The report points out that the Russian military heavily relies on contract soldiers and former convicts, with infantry units suffering from inadequate training and poor medical logistics, all of which contribute to a high casualty rate. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte revealed at the World Economic Forum in Davos that the Russian military lost over 30,000 soldiers in just one month in December 2025, equivalent to more than 1,000 deaths per day. He compared this by stating: In Afghanistan during the 1980s, the Soviet Union lost 20,000 soldiers over a decade. Now, they are losing 30,000 in a single month.

Ukraine's Resilience, Attrition, and Manpower Crisis

The pressure on Ukraine is equally immense. Facing an adversary far larger in scale, the Ukrainian military has demonstrated remarkable resilience, but at a heavy cost. Beyond the 500,000 to 600,000 military casualties, the suffering of the civilian population is also profound. The UN Human Rights Office records show that 2025 was the year with the highest number of civilian deaths in Ukraine since 2022, with over 2,500 civilians killed and 12,000 injured. Since 2022, confirmed civilian deaths have reached 15,000, and the actual figure is likely much higher.

In late January 2026, the flames of war continued to scorch civilian areas. On January 28, a Russian strike hit an apartment building in Bilohorodka, a suburb of Kyiv, killing a couple. In Odesa, Kryvyi Rih, and the frontline Zaporizhzhia region, separate attacks left at least 9 people injured, with damage to religious sites, energy infrastructure, and port facilities. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces launched 1 ballistic missile and 146 attack drones overnight, of which 103 were shot down or suppressed by electronic warfare.

The more severe challenge lies in the manpower shortage. Despite multiple rounds of mobilization in Ukraine and the lowering of the conscription age in 2024, draft evasion remains widespread, and frontline troops have long been in a state of personnel strain. At Davos, Zelenskyy stated that Moscow can mobilize 40,000 to 43,000 new soldiers per month, while Ukraine's mobilization capacity is nearing its limit. Recently, Ukrainian Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov claimed that if verified Russian military losses on video reach 50,000 per month, it would be a strategic goal for Kyiv, and then we will see what happens to the enemy. This reflects Ukraine's strategic approach of attempting to offset its own manpower disadvantage by maximizing enemy casualties.

The Trajectory of War and Its Future Impact Under the Shadow of Peace Talks

Currently, under U.S. mediation, Russia and Ukraine are engaged in round after round of peace negotiations. The third round of trilateral talks is scheduled to take place this weekend. U.S. Senator Marco Rubio revealed that active work is underway to reconcile territorial issues in the Donetsk region of Donbas, which he described as a key remaining issue that is extremely difficult to resolve. There are reports that Washington may link security guarantees to Ukraine ceding Donbas to Russia, although the Trump administration has denied this.

However, the battlefield situation is the cornerstone of any negotiation. The Kremlin has repeatedly stated that unless Kiev gives up in a peace agreement, the Russian military will forcibly seize the entire Donbas region of Ukraine (currently about 90% under Russian control). Ukraine firmly states that it will not hand over territory that Russia has failed to win on the battlefield. On January 28, Putin's diplomatic aide Yuri Ushakov said that Putin is ready to meet with Zelensky in Moscow as suggested by Trump, and we will guarantee his safety and necessary working conditions. However, such proposals are more symbolic than practical under the current deficit of mutual trust.

Analysts widely believe that Russian President Vladimir Putin is in no hurry to seek a settlement, despite his military facing significant difficulties along the approximately 1,000-kilometer-long front line. The conflict has evolved into a typical war of attrition, with both sides testing each other's endurance. A CSIS report predicts that, at the current rate, combined casualties will reach 2 million by this spring. This figure not only signifies the shattering of countless families but also foreshadows a heavy burden of social and psychological trauma that will be carried by a generation in both countries. Regardless of the ultimate geopolitical outcome, the Russia-Ukraine war has already carved a deep scar in history due to its unparalleled human losses in a major power conflict since World War II. The gears of war continue to turn, with every meter of advance soaked in blood.