Nuclear Power Plants and Drones: A New Dimension in the Energy War Behind Russia's Large-Scale Attack on Kyiv
20/01/2026
In early March in Kyiv, the cold had not yet fully receded. An unprecedented missile and drone attack left thousands of apartment buildings in the city without electricity and heating in the darkness. However, for Ukrainian President Zelensky and his military commanders, this assault was far from an isolated act of terror. It seemed more like a clear signal, indicating a dangerous and potentially catastrophic shift in Russia's war strategy. Integrating intelligence and analysis from multiple sources, a chilling picture is emerging: the Kremlin's next major target may directly aim at the nuclear power plants and critical infrastructure that sustain Ukraine's national lifeline.
From Fossil Fuels to Nuclear Facilities: The Strategic Escalation of Russia's Energy Strikes
Since the full-scale invasion began, Russia's attacks on Ukraine's energy system have never ceased. In the initial winter, the focus of the attacks was primarily on fossil fuel facilities such as thermal power plants, aiming to undermine the resistance will of the Ukrainian people by causing large-scale power outages and heating disruptions amid severe cold, resulting in widespread damage to civilian infrastructure. Although this tactic was brutal, its scope and duration of destruction were relatively controllable, allowing repair efforts to commence within weeks or months.
However, recent intelligence and military movements indicate that Russia's strike strategy is evolving towards a more lethal and strategic level. The Ukrainian Military Intelligence Directorate (HUR) has issued a clear warning: Russia has conducted reconnaissance on ten key substations surrounding three still-operational nuclear power plants in Ukraine—the Rivne Nuclear Power Plant, the Khmelnytskyi Nuclear Power Plant, and the South Ukraine Nuclear Power Plant. All three of these nuclear power plants were built during the Soviet era, and their grid architecture, layout, and even vulnerabilities are well-known to Russian engineers and military planners. Together, they supply over half of Ukraine's electricity, serving as the absolute backbone of the nation's energy system.
What Does This Mean? Attacking these substations is fundamentally different from attacking ordinary power plants. Even after a reactor is shut down, it still relies on external electricity to drive the cooling system to prevent a core meltdown, which would lead to a catastrophic nuclear accident. Cutting off the external power supply connecting a nuclear power plant to the grid is akin to holding a sharp knife to the throat of nuclear safety. Ukrainian Energy Minister Denys Shmyhal has formally informed International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Rafael Grossi about this, pointing out that Russia is preparing new strikes that could endanger the critical energy infrastructure essential for the operation of nuclear power plants. The IAEA has also confirmed that it is preparing to dispatch new expert teams to various nuclear power plants in Ukraine, including the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, which is occupied by Russian forces.
The Shadow of a "Second Chernobyl": Tactical Gambles and Strategic Blackmail
Including nuclear facilities within the strike range marks a sharp escalation in conflict risks. Electronic warfare expert Sergey Beskrestnov issued a stern warning on Telegram: The critical substations connecting nuclear power plants to the grid are often located just a few hundred meters from the reactors. A misdirected Russian Iskander or Kinzhal missile could very well strike the nuclear power plant facilities directly. A single mistake could create a second Chernobyl, he wrote.
The radioactive fallout from the 1986 Chernobyl nuclear disaster once spread across most of Europe, and its shadow has not completely dissipated to this day. Beskrestnov pointed out that Russia's attempt to attack substations in order to cause nationwide power outages is in itself creating an extremely dangerous situation. He reminded that Russian weapons have previously deviated from military or industrial targets on multiple occasions, mistakenly striking civilian residences.
Analysis indicates that Russia's move may encompass multiple layers of strategic intent.The primary objective remains military and economic pressure: by paralyzing over 50% of Ukraine's electricity generation capacity, creating nationwide blackouts lasting for weeks or even longer, inflicting devastating blows on military logistics, industrial production, and social order—especially in preparation for potential summer offensives.Secondly, this represents an extreme form of strategic coercion: by placing the risk of nuclear catastrophe on the table, Moscow aims to exert unprecedented psychological and political pressure on Kyiv and its Western backers, forcing them to accept what Russia terms as unacceptable surrender terms. Ukrainian intelligence officials believe this plan is precisely part of Russia's pressure campaign.
Finally, this reflects a further total war evolution in Russia's warfare logic: when conventional military advances encounter a stalemate on the battlefield, maximizing the opponent's fear and imposed costs by striking civilian core infrastructure, especially targets with significant collateral risks, becomes its option to break the balance. The assessment of General Oleksandr Syrskyi, Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, corroborates this: he sees no signs of Russia preparing for peace negotiations; instead, he observes a significant increase in combat intensity, an expansion in the scale of assault groups, and a rise in weapons production.
Drone "Rainstorm" and the Revolution in Air Defense: A Life-or-Death Race Amid a War of Attrition
Synchronized with the escalation of nuclear threats is Russia's substantial investment in conventional strike capabilities, particularly in drone attacks. General Sersky revealed a key statistic: Russia currently produces approximately 400 Shahed drones of various types per day and plans to increase production to 1,000 drones daily. This means that in the future, the skies over Ukraine will face not intermittent swarm attacks, but a continuous downpour of drones.
Behind this production capacity lies the redirection of Russia's war economy and the support from its allies. Syrskyi pointed out that the electronic components and technology required for drones largely come from China, ammunition and missile supplies rely on North Korea, while Iran provides the drone technology itself. This has enabled Russia's economic capabilities to be sustained, with the pace of military-industrial production not only not declining but actually increasing.
Faced with the pressure of this asymmetric war of attrition, Ukraine is compelled to undertake a rapid air defense revolution. President Zelensky announced that the Ukrainian Air Force will introduce a completely new air defense combat model, with the core being the formation of numerous mobile fire teams and the widespread deployment of interceptor drones and other short-range air defense assets. The system will be thoroughly transformed. He appointed Major General Pavlo Yelizarov as Deputy Commander of the Air Force, specifically responsible for overseeing and developing this innovation.
Ukraine's choice is both a necessity and a wise strategy. Since 2022, Ukraine's domestic drone industry has developed rapidly. Compared to expensive and supply-constrained Western air defense missile systems (such as Patriot or IRIS-T), intercepting drones is considered a more cost-effective, mass-producible defensive measure. They are capable of targeting low-altitude, slow-moving small drone targets, filling the firepower gap between medium-to-long-range air defense systems and man-portable air defense weapons. This concept of using drones to counter drones aims to build a multi-layered, distributed, and more resilient air defense network to counter Russia's tactics of saturating and depleting Ukraine's air defense resources.
Zelensky warns the nation that Russia is prepared to launch a large-scale strike and is waiting for the right moment to carry it out, urging all regions across the country to maintain extreme vigilance. Meanwhile, the government is also addressing the logistical issues from recent attacks, with Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko instructed to decide within this week on awarding bonuses to tens of thousands of emergency workers repairing electricity and heating systems.
Beyond Energy: Striking at the Economic Lifeline and Global Supply Chains
Russia's strike range is not limited to power generation and transmission networks. An in-depth analysis of its recent attack targets reveals a clear pattern aimed at strangling Ukraine's economic lifeline and weakening its long-term war potential. From December last year to January this year, Russia launched concentrated attacks on several of Ukraine's largest vegetable oil producers and exporters.
On December 21, 2023, the Allseeds Black Sea oil terminal located in the port of Yuzhny, Odessa Oblast, was attacked by drones, resulting in vegetable oil leaking into the sea and polluting the marine ecosystem. On Christmas Eve, Russia attacked the Kernel company's Illichivsk oil processing complex in Chornomorsk, hitting storage tanks and causing a major fire and leakage. On January 5 this year, the largest factory of the American company Bunge (whose product brand is Olena) in Dnipro, Ukraine, was also targeted by a drone attack, causing partial damage to its facilities.
These companies are important players in the agricultural product markets of Ukraine and even globally. Enterprises such as Kernel and Bunge are major producers and exporters of products like sunflower oil in Ukraine, while Ukraine itself is a world-leading exporter of sunflower oil. Attacking these civilian industrial facilities has a very clear strategic intent: first, to directly destroy Ukraine's export revenue-generating capacity and undermine its wartime economy; second, to damage Ukraine's credibility as a reliable global supplier, disrupt the supply chains for grains and oils in the Black Sea region, create uncertainty in global markets, and thereby isolate Ukraine economically; third, to cause ecological disasters and safety hazards at ports and industrial facilities, further obstructing Ukraine's foreign trade channels.
This precise targeting of specific economic pillar industries, combined with attacks on the energy system, together constitute a systematic campaign aimed at comprehensively paralyzing Ukraine's national operational capabilities.
Conclusion: A Game on the Edge of a Cliff
Russia's large-scale attacks on Kyiv and Ukraine's nationwide energy system, particularly its targeting of critical infrastructure at nuclear power plants, have pushed this war into a new and more dangerous phase. This is no longer merely a struggle over front-line trenches, but a full-scale war aimed at destroying the nerve center of the nation's operations, deliberately using the risk of nuclear disaster as a bargaining chip.
Ukraine's Response - Developing Interceptor Drones, Reforming Air Defense Systems, and Warning the International Community of Nuclear Risks - Demonstrates Its Adaptability and Resilience in Dire Situations. However, This Competition Is Asymmetric. On One Side, Russia, Relying on Its Military-Industrial Complex and External Support, Continuously Enhances Its Long-Range Strike Capabilities and Adopts Increasingly Risky Tactics; On the Other Side, Ukraine, Amid Fluctuating Western Aid, Strives to Build a Localized, Low-Cost Defense Network.
The response of the international community will be crucial. Can the involvement of the IAEA establish an effective deterrent? Will the West be able to provide sufficient and timely air defense equipment and accelerate Ukraine's integration into its defense industrial system? Can the containment of the supply chain for Russia's war machine (particularly the supply of components from certain countries) take effect? These questions will determine whether Ukraine can withstand the upcoming large-scale strikes and avoid a disaster that could spread across the entire Europe.
The logic of war is sliding towards a dangerous tipping point: when conventional means struggle to achieve political objectives, escalation of the conflict seems inevitable. The dark clouds hovering over nuclear power plants remind the world that the outcome of this war will affect far more than just the borders of Ukraine.
Reference materials
https://www.expressen.se/nyheter/varlden/varnar-for-ett--andra-tjernobyl/
https://yle.fi/a/7-10091627?origin=rss
https://ca.news.yahoo.com/zelenskyy-says-russia-taking-aim-110203388.html
https://www.jpost.com/international/internationalrussia-ukraine-war/article-883884