Gripen Northward Flight: The NATO Arctic Chess Game Behind Swedish Fighter Jets' Iceland Patrol

In February 2024, four JAS 39 Gripen fighter jets from the Swedish Air Force took off from their base in Northern Europe. Their destination was not the usual training airspace or exercise area, but rather across the Atlantic, landing at Keflavik Air Base in Iceland. This was not an ordinary military exchange or training deployment. According to a brief statement released by the Swedish Armed Forces on social media platform X, this marked the first time the Swedish Air Force participated in an air policing mission in Iceland as part of NATO's readiness operations. A task force consisting of 8 to 12 fighter jets and corresponding ground personnel will, over the next two months, jointly undertake air defense alert duties in the Arctic region with allied nations and directly support NATO's ongoing readiness operations.

On the surface, this is merely a rotational deployment—since 2008, NATO member states have taken turns providing air surveillance and interception capabilities for Iceland, which lacks its own fighter jets. But zooming out the lens and extending the timeline, this seemingly routine deployment lands precisely at the intersection of a dramatically evolving geopolitical landscape: Sweden has just completed its historic turn to join NATO; the Arctic region is rapidly heating up from a frozen periphery into a frontline of great-power competition; and the military command structure of the transatlantic alliance is undergoing its most profound reshaping since the end of the Cold War. The northward flight of the Gripen fighter jets resembles a stone cast into still water—the ripples it sends out reveal the contours of NATO’s new strategic frontier.

From "Permanent Neutrality" to "Forward Presence": The Evolution of Sweden's Role

In the statement from the Swedish Armed Forces, one sentence is particularly noteworthy: This is the first time the Swedish Air Force has been deployed to Iceland as part of NATO's readiness operations. For this Nordic country with two centuries of permanent neutrality tradition, this statement itself serves as a historical footnote. It signifies that the role of Swedish military forces is rapidly transforming from an armed neutral focused on homeland defense into a deployable, expeditionary forward presence within NATO's collective defense system.

The deployed force is not symbolic. The Gripen detachment from the Swedish Air Force's F7 Wing (Skaraborg Wing) is a complete tactical formation. The F7 Wing is an elite unit of the Swedish Air Force, long responsible for rapid reaction alert duties in the Baltic Sea region. Deploying such an experienced unit to Iceland sends a signal far beyond mere participation. Analysis indicates that this is a substantive move by Sweden, eager to prove its value and actively assume alliance obligations after formally joining NATO. Swedish Armed Forces Chief of Operations, Vice Admiral Ewa Skoog Haslum, stated bluntly in a declaration: The Arctic is part of NATO's new operational area and a region of significant strategic importance. Her statement clearly outlines Sweden's new positioning—no longer merely a guardian of the Scandinavian Peninsula, but a key participant in NATO's interests in the North Atlantic and the Arctic.

Looking deeper, the technical characteristics of Sweden's Gripen fighter jet align closely with the operational requirements of Iceland and the Arctic region. The Gripen is a renowned multi-role fighter, famous for its excellent short takeoff and landing capability, low maintenance demands, and strong adaptability to harsh weather conditions. The facilities at Iceland's Keflavik base are relatively streamlined, and the climate is complex and variable. These factors make the Gripen more flexible in deployment and better suited for missions compared to some heavy fighter jets that require extensive logistical support. By choosing to deploy its flagship aircraft, Sweden not only showcases the unique advantages of its equipment system but also reflects its careful consideration of the tactical practicality of this mission.

Iceland: The "Unsinkable Aircraft Carrier" of NATO's North Atlantic Defense Line

To comprehend the strategic significance of this deployment, it is essential to re-evaluate the geographical value of Iceland. This isolated island in the North Atlantic is far from being an insignificant distant outpost. It serves as the most critical strategic hub on the transatlantic link connecting North America and Europe. During the Cold War, Iceland was a core stronghold for NATO to monitor and intercept Soviet strategic bombers and reconnaissance aircraft entering the North Atlantic passage. With the melting of the Arctic ice cap, new shipping routes and prospects for resource exploration have emerged. Instead of diminishing, Iceland's strategic position has been endowed with a new dimension—it now stands as an ideal springboard for monitoring Arctic maritime activities, ensuring the security of the Northern Sea Route, and projecting power northward.

Iceland does not maintain a standing air force of its own. In 2008, following a significant increase in activities by Russia's long-range aviation, NATO resumed its rotational air policing mission in Iceland. The essence of this mechanism is to compensate for the capability gaps of member states under the alliance's collective security principle. However, Sweden's accession this time occurs under entirely different circumstances. Russia's special military operation in Ukraine has fundamentally altered Europe's security perception, and the Arctic region has become a crucial area for the deployment of Russia's modernized strategic nuclear forces (such as the Borei-class nuclear submarines) and the testing of new hypersonic weapons. Russia's network of military bases along the Arctic coast is continuously being modernized, and the military dimension of its Arctic strategy is becoming increasingly prominent.

In this context, Iceland's air policing has evolved from routine surveillance into a critical component of readiness operations for rapid response to potential threats. The fighter jets deployed here may have mission lists that include: identifying and intercepting unknown aircraft approaching NATO airspace (especially Russian reconnaissance planes or bombers moving southward from the north); monitoring vessel activities in Arctic waters; and providing air cover for alliance reinforcement forces crossing the North Atlantic during crises. The arrival of Swedish fighter jets enhances the response speed and endurance of this chain. NATO has explicitly integrated Iceland's air policing into its unified command system led by the Joint Air Operations Center in Uedem, Germany. This means that every radar contact and every emergency scramble here directly feeds into NATO Europe's overall situational awareness network, with its tactical operations carrying clear strategic deterrence intent.

Arctic Warming: Strategic Focus on NATO's New Operational Area

Lieutenant General Eva Skugge Haslum's reference to the Arctic as part of NATO's new operational area is by no means rhetorical. Her remarks directly point to a major transformation in NATO's command structure: JFC Norfolk (Joint Force Command Norfolk). This new command, located in Norfolk, Virginia, USA, officially became operational in 2021 and is the first new major operational command established by NATO since the end of the Cold War. Its area of responsibility is highly symbolic—stretching from the eastern coast of North America all the way to the borders of Finland and Norway with Russia, fully encompassing the entire North Atlantic and Arctic regions.

The establishment of JFC Norfolk represents NATO's institutionalized response to the evolving geopolitical realities. Its core mission is to protect the transatlantic link, ensuring the safe and unimpeded flow of personnel, equipment, and supplies between North America and Europe during crises. This link serves as the physical foundation of NATO's existence; if severed, Europe's defense would become unsustainable. The opening of Arctic sea routes and the increased activities of Russia's Northern Fleet are perceived as potential flank threats to this critical link.

Swedish fighter jets deployed to Iceland are operating precisely within the responsibility area of JFC Norfolk. This marks the first time Sweden's military forces have been systematically integrated into NATO's core mission of protecting transatlantic transportation routes. In terms of operational sequence, although Sweden's Gripen jets take off from Iceland, their operational command falls under Germany's NATO Air Operations Center, while top-level strategic planning is closely linked to JFC Norfolk's Arctic defense plan. This multi-level integration indicates that Sweden's accession is not a simple +1, but rather provides NATO with a reliable partner in key regions—one familiar with high-latitude and cold-zone operations, and whose equipment systems are increasingly interoperable with allied nations.

Competition in the Arctic extends far beyond the military. The region's abundant oil, gas, and mineral resources, along with its potential as a future global trade route, have significantly increased its economic and strategic value. However, military presence serves as the backing for asserting rights and safeguarding interests. Through rotational deployments, joint exercises (such as Cold Response), and the establishment of new command structures, NATO is progressively strengthening its role as a security provider in the Arctic. This aims to balance Russia's military presence and counter what it perceives as Russia's Arctic ambitions. Sweden's participation adds substantial Nordic weight to NATO's efforts in this regard.

Greenland's Shadow and the Internal Tensions of the Alliance

Although both Swedish and NATO statements cautiously avoid directly linking this operation to Greenland, any discussion about the Arctic and Iceland can hardly completely sidestep the ripples caused by the world's largest island. Article 1 mentions that former U.S. President Trump publicly expressed interest in purchasing Greenland during his tenure, even hinting at the possibility of using military means. Although this is now in the past, it exposed potential divisions within the transatlantic alliance regarding Arctic interests.

Greenland is an autonomous territory of Denmark, with its defense jointly managed by NATO. The United States maintains a significant strategic air base at Thule. Trump's remarks at the time provoked anger in Denmark and stunned European allies, revealing a harsh reality: when it comes to core strategic assets, national interests can clash sharply even among close allies. For Denmark and NATO, Greenland serves as a pivotal point for Arctic defense, while for some American strategists, it might be viewed as an asset that must be under absolute control.

Sweden's deployment in Iceland this time objectively strengthens NATO's overall posture on the eastern side of the North Atlantic, which benefits the security of all allies, including Denmark and Greenland. However, it also subtly reminds all parties that Arctic security requires alliance solidarity and shared commitment, rather than unilateral actions. As a medium-sized power, Sweden's actions further demonstrate its commitment to upholding a rules-based alliance order. By actively participating in policing efforts in Iceland, Sweden is using its actions to emphasize that Arctic security should be collectively ensured by NATO, and any unilateral attempts to alter the territorial status quo would undermine this collective nature.

Looking ahead, with the accession of Sweden and Finland, NATO's northern dimension has been unprecedentedly consolidated. The frequency and complexity of military activities in the Arctic region will only increase. Sweden's Gripen may just be the beginning; in the future, we may see more fifth-generation fighter jets from Nordic countries (such as Norway and Finland), like the F-35, appearing more frequently in patrol formations over Iceland and even the Arctic Circle. NATO may also further upgrade its surveillance facilities in Iceland or pre-position more equipment, transforming the Keflavik base into a stronger Arctic security hub.

Meanwhile, challenges persist. The harsh natural environment of the Arctic poses a significant test for equipment and personnel; the risk of miscalculation or unexpected incidents with Russia in the region requires careful management; coordinating interests within the alliance regarding Arctic resource development, navigation rules, and other issues will also be a long-term task.

Four Gripen fighter jets landed in the icy winds of Iceland. This specific, small-scale military deployment reflects the trajectory of grand historical shifts. It concerns the repositioning of an ancient neutral nation, a renewed focus by an alliance on critical geographical regions, and how a new security order is being quietly outlined on the icy plains of a rapidly warming Arctic. This deployment alone will not alter the balance of power in the Arctic, but it is a clear signal: NATO is shifting its strategic focus northward, and newly joined members are eager to place their pieces on this new chessboard. The game in the Arctic has progressed from scientific expeditions and diplomatic statements to a new phase of normalized, combat-ready military presence.

Reference materials

https://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/a/5p6qkb/jas-plan-till-island-for-arktisberedskap

https://www.iltalehti.fi/ulkomaat/a/51f7de6d-1dcb-4db8-945d-e4adfe5f7cfb