Unmanned Combat Equipment in the Russia-Ukraine Conflict: Reshaping the Form of Modern Warfare

Recently, the Ukrainian National Security Service publicly announced that the Ukrainian military used an unmanned underwater vehicle for the first time to attack a Russian Navy "Kilo"-class submarine, causing actual damage.

In response, the Russian Ministry of Defense issued a statement refuting the claims, stating that although the Novorossiysk naval base was attacked by Ukrainian forces, all ships, submarines, and crew members remained undamaged.

Footage of the Ukrainian attack on a Russian naval base.

Although Russia and Ukraine each have their own version of events, it is undeniable that in the nearly four-year-long Russia-Ukraine conflict, unmanned combat equipment has played an increasingly prominent role, reflecting new trends in modern warfare.

Unmanned equipment achieves full-domain coverage.

Since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, various unmanned combat equipment such as drones, unmanned boats, and unmanned underwater vehicles have taken the stage, repeatedly demonstrating remarkable effectiveness in key battles and special operations, showcasing a strong degree of irreplaceability.

Unmanned underwater vehicles (UUVs) are a new type of unmanned combat equipment capable of autonomously performing reconnaissance, surveillance, and attack missions underwater. With features such as high autonomy, strong concealment, and high mobility, they are regarded as a key factor in reshaping the rules of future naval warfare.

乌克兰测试名为“marichka”的无人潜航器。

Compared to unmanned surface vessels, the greatest advantage of unmanned underwater vehicles lies in their ability to effectively evade conventional defense measures such as shipborne radar, while leveraging the incompressibility of water to deliver devastating strikes against targets.

Since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, due to frequent unmanned boat attacks by Ukrainian forces on naval bases such as Sevastopol, the Russian military has been forced to withdraw the main force of its fleet to the Novorossiysk base and deploy multiple layers of surface barrier nets in the port.

俄罗斯的新罗西斯克海军基地。

In this operation, the Ukrainian forces effectively evaded Russian detection by using the "Sea Baby" unmanned underwater vehicle to infiltrate the military port and launch an attack, revealing that the Russian side still has vulnerabilities in detecting and striking underwater unmanned equipment.

The success of the attack operation signifies that the Ukrainian military is developing a coordinated combat model of "surface containment and underwater assault," which will further strengthen Ukraine's resolve to launch asymmetric strikes against Russia. At the same time, to enhance its response capabilities, the Russian military is also focusing on developing a defense system against maritime unmanned equipment.

Unmanned Swarms, Galloping Across the Land

On the land battlefield, unmanned equipment is also evolving into a key factor that can influence the course of the battle.

Since the beginning of this year, both Russia and Ukraine have begun deploying unmanned combat clusters on the ground battlefield, marking the first time in human warfare history that large-scale robots have participated in combat.

Small robotic dogs on the Russia-Ukraine battlefield.

Among them, small suicide drones can stealthily approach and destroy enemy fortifications, clearing obstacles for subsequent offensives; small unmanned combat vehicles equipped with machine guns, grenade launchers, and other gear can partially replace infantry tasks; small robotic dogs can penetrate urban street battles and high-risk minefields to perform reconnaissance, transportation, fire support, and other missions, enhancing the operational flexibility of troops in complex environments.

In the field of logistics support, unmanned transport vehicles can undertake tasks such as casualty evacuation, ammunition resupply, and material delivery, effectively addressing the challenges of traditional logistics support, including "difficult forward delivery, high risks, and poor endurance."

Ground unmanned equipment, leveraging its advantages of "low cost, zero casualties, and high endurance," is driving the evolution of land warfare toward "integrated reconnaissance and strike, human-machine collaboration, and swarm intelligence."

Drones, renowned in aerial combat.

In modern aerial warfare, unmanned combat systems demonstrate greater survivability and cost advantages over traditional equipment in areas such as reconnaissance, strike operations, and electronic warfare, with their role becoming increasingly prominent.

On the Russia-Ukraine battlefield, drones have "made a name for themselves in a single battle," demonstrating advantages far superior to traditional equipment across multiple fields. According to statistics, up to % of casualties on both sides have been caused by "unmanned aerial systems."

俄乌战场上的无人机。

In Operation "Spider Web," the Ukrainian military deployed a drone swarm with a total value of less than a million dollars, successfully destroying Russian strategic bombers worth billions of dollars, severely crippling Russia's strategic nuclear strike capabilities.

The Russian military also extensively employs low-cost drones such as the "Shahed-" series (with a unit cost of only tens of thousands of dollars), continuously conducting long-range harassment attacks on Ukraine's rear-area infrastructure, including power, energy, and transportation facilities.

This cost advantage can create an asymmetric attrition effect, using low-cost unmanned systems to continuously constrain and deplete the opponent's high-value equipment, forcing them to invest resources several times greater than one's own in defense.

It is noteworthy that "fiber-optic guided drones" with strong anti-jamming capabilities have recently emerged on the Russia-Ukraine battlefield. By physically connecting to ground control stations via optical fibers, fiber-optic guided drones can effectively circumvent radio frequency countermeasures, ensuring highly stable command transmission and image feedback in complex electromagnetic environments.

Unmanned equipment is reshaping modern warfare.

Combat has proven that unmanned combat equipment, with its ultimate cost-effectiveness ratio, innovative tactical combinations, and sustained strategic depth penetration, is reshaping the landscape of modern warfare.

This military revolution triggered by unmanned equipment is making modern warfare cheaper, smarter, and more brutal.

Achieving asymmetric breakthroughs

Traditional military superiority is built upon massive steel tides, precise technological disparities, and astronomically expensive equipment systems. In contrast, unmanned combat equipment is offering traditionally disadvantaged parties a new path for "asymmetric breakthroughs" through extreme low costs and high intelligence.

Taking the Russia-Ukraine conflict as an example, according to the traditional balance of power, the Russian military is far stronger than the Ukrainian military. However, the involvement of unmanned combat equipment has enabled the Ukrainian military to destroy high-value enemy targets at an extremely low cost, significantly enhancing its battlefield containment and precision strike capabilities against Russia.

This highly dramatic exchange ratio of combat losses has completely rewritten the rules of "traditional military economics," shifting the core contest of war from a mere competition of equipment performance to a systematic and protracted war of attrition.

Meanwhile, due to the stealth and long-endurance characteristics of unmanned equipment, modern warfare is shifting from large-scale firepower coverage to precision strikes, covert sabotage, and distributed operations. The nature of warfare is evolving toward digitization, intelligence, and unmanned systems.

Upgrade of the Combat Command System

The traditional combat command system exhibits a "pyramid" structure, and the centralized command that previously relied on hierarchical transmission is increasingly struggling to adapt to the highly dynamic and intensely contested modern battlefield.

With the deep integration of unmanned combat equipment, the modern operational command system is evolving toward a "distributed and flattened" direction.

In unmanned combat scenarios, commanders do not need to issue specific instructions; they only need to set mission objectives, rules of engagement, and authorization conditions. Unmanned combat equipment can then autonomously accomplish tasks such as path planning, target identification, dynamic avoidance, and even strike decision-making.

This new task-oriented, algorithm-supported command model not only significantly reduces decision-making time but also propels modern warfare toward the evolution of "decision-centric warfare."

The unmanned arms race intensifies.

Currently, the rise of unmanned combat equipment is sparking a new round of global arms race centered on "intelligence, swarm tactics, and systematization."

The United States is expanding its production capacity and vigorously developing drone swarms; Russia is integrating its forces to build systematic unmanned combat capabilities; the European Union is "developing collectively" to enhance its all-domain defense capabilities; Japan is establishing unmanned underwater vehicle combat units to improve its regional intervention capabilities...

The world's major military powers are intensifying their deployment of unmanned equipment, striving to seize the initiative on future battlefields through equipment transformation and changes in combat models.