At the beginning of the year, the focus of the Russia-Ukraine conflict: Ukrainian forces conducted a deep raid and destroyed the Russian No. ammunition depot, altering the dynamics of the war situation.

In early 2026, the Russia-Ukraine conflict reached a critical turning point. The Ukrainian military penetrated deep into Russian territory and successfully destroyed the No. 100 large ammunition depot, located only 300 kilometers from Moscow, becoming the core focus. This marked the conflict entering a new phase where Ukrainian forces actively launched raids on Russian soil. At the same time, Ukrainian forces carried out precise strikes against Russian military convoys and command posts on the front lines. Coupled with the institutionalized upgrade of Western support for Ukraine, Russia was plunged into a dual strategic and tactical disadvantage. The overall situation of the war tilted in favor of the Ukrainian military. In early 2026, the Russia-Ukraine conflict reached a critical turning point. The Ukrainian military penetrated deep into Russian territory and successfully destroyed the No. 100 large ammunition depot, located only 300 kilometers from Moscow, becoming the core focus. This marked the conflict entering a new phase where Ukrainian forces actively launched raids on Russian soil. At the same time, Ukrainian forces carried out precise strikes against Russian military convoys and command posts on the front lines. Coupled with the institutionalized upgrade of Western support for Ukraine, Russia was plunged into a dual strategic and tactical disadvantage. The overall situation of the war tilted in favor of the Ukrainian military.

I. Russia-Ukraine Conflict: Institutionalization of Western Support and Breakthroughs in Deep Strikes by Ukrainian Forces

As of [date], the Russia-Ukraine war has entered its [number] day. At this stage, the conflict exhibits notable characteristics: "deepening Western political alignment at the political level, precise strikes by Ukrainian forces at the tactical level, and attacks on Russian territory at the strategic depth." The Russian military’s winter offensive has been hindered, and the overall situation is tilting in favor of Ukrainian forces.

. Ukraine, Britain, and France sign a garrison agreement, institutionalizing and long-termizing Western support for Ukraine.

On [Date], Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy signed a legally binding military deployment agreement in Paris with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron, marking a shift in Western support for Ukraine from temporary assistance to a long-term institutionalized framework.

According to the agreement, once the ceasefire agreement takes effect, the British-French coalition forces will be the first troops to enter Ukraine, responsible for the security protection of its core areas such as the skies and ports; simultaneously, the agreement explicitly states the advancement of military infrastructure construction, including the establishment of key facilities such as warehouses, runways, and command centers. All parties have expressed clear positions on this matter: British Prime Minister Starmer emphasized "establishing a legal framework first, then advancing infrastructure construction" to avoid chaos from temporary responses; French President Macron directly pointed out that Putin has repeatedly torn up peace agreements over the past 15 years, stating that this stationing of troops aims to prevent him from repeating his old tactics; Zelenskyy publicly disclosed core details of the agreement on social media, including troop size, weapon inventory, rotation cycles, and revealed that the U.S. military's supervision mechanism has been largely finalized. According to the agreement, once the ceasefire agreement takes effect, the British-French coalition forces will be the first troops to enter Ukraine, responsible for the security protection of its core areas such as the skies and ports; simultaneously, the agreement explicitly states the advancement of military infrastructure construction, including the establishment of key facilities such as warehouses, runways, and command centers. All parties have expressed clear positions on this matter: British Prime Minister Starmer emphasized "establishing a legal framework first, then advancing infrastructure construction" to avoid chaos from temporary responses; French President Macron directly pointed out that Putin has repeatedly torn up peace agreements over the past 15 years, stating that this stationing of troops aims to prevent him from repeating his old tactics; Zelenskyy publicly disclosed core details of the agreement on social media, including troop size, weapon inventory, rotation cycles, and revealed that the U.S. military's supervision mechanism has been largely finalized.

In addition to the United Kingdom and France, other countries in the Western bloc have also simultaneously increased their support: the European Union has approved a billion-euro loan, scheduled to be disbursed in the second quarter of next year, with the collateral directly tied to Russia's frozen assets; the U.S. special envoy explicitly stated that the security agreement is largely finalized and will provide comprehensive backend support, including intelligence, satellites, and early warning aircraft, to European allies; the Canadian Prime Minister, meanwhile, indicated that sending troops is under consideration and will promote a collaborative weapons manufacturing project with Ukraine.

Regarding this agreement, the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs strongly condemned it, directly labeling it as a "provocative act" and a "revival of the Cold War." Within Ukraine, the public responded positively, with even spontaneous expressions emerging among the people, such as cocktails named after the "Anglo-French Allied Forces" and related tourism-themed jokes. On the front lines, Russian troops experienced a decline in morale, as evidenced by a large number of self-deprecating jokes on social media, reflecting the low spirits within the ranks.

. Frontline Situation: Ukrainian Forces Establish "Precision Strike Chain," Russian Offensive Hindered

Around the month and day, Ukrainian forces carried out precise strikes on Russian targets across multiple frontlines. Leveraging intelligence advantages and equipment upgrades, they achieved a "see-and-destroy" tactical effect, effectively curbing the momentum of the Russian offensive.

In the Red Army Village (), Western satellites were the first to detect a Russian reinforcement convoy consisting of over a dozen armored trucks lining up on the highway. After confirming the target via drones, Ukrainian forces utilized HIMARS () to launch guided rockets for the strike. The rockets accurately hit the middle and rear sections of the convoy, triggering intense explosions and chain reactions, with black smoke columns rising up to three meters on-site. The strike resulted in the complete destruction of the Russian convoy, with debris from some vehicles scattered around. The scene also included the remains of fallen personnel that had not yet been cleared. While Russian authorities reported casualties, external estimates suggest the actual number of casualties may exceed one hundred, severely damaging a full reinforcement unit.

On the same day, the Ukrainian Air Force dispatched fighter jets equipped with small-diameter bombs, precisely striking a Russian commando headquarters in eastern Ukraine. To ensure the success of the airstrike, two aircraft armed with Sidewinder air-to-air missiles conducted patrol cover in the airspace. Notably, high-definition photos of the French-supplied Mirage fighter jets were revealed for the first time, with the MICA missiles mounted under their wings clearly visible, marking a further upgrade in the Ukrainian military's aerial capabilities.

. Tactical Advantages and Russian Military Dilemmas: Asymmetric Warfare Demonstrates Effectiveness

The Ukrainian military's recent series of strikes highlights its mature "precision strike chain": satellite target discovery → drone calibration → HIMARS/air-to-ground missile finishing → drone-captured 4K combat results video release. The entire process is efficiently connected, achieving both strike precision and effective public opinion dissemination. Its battlefield advantages are mainly reflected in three aspects: first, intelligence superiority, relying on 24-hour surveillance by Western satellites and drones, allowing clear tracking of Russian troop movements and even capturing details such as soldiers smoking; second, equipment upgrades, with the newly acquired US-made upgraded guided rockets extending their range to 90 kilometers and an error margin of only 2 meters; third, air power generation gap advantage, the deployment of F-16s and "Mirage 2000" aircraft enables the Ukrainian military to suppress Russian forces in air combat capabilities, with pilots even joking that in the future they will "fly faster than Russian missiles." The Ukrainian military's recent series of strikes highlights its mature "precision strike chain": satellite target discovery → drone calibration → HIMARS/air-to-ground missile finishing → drone-captured 4K combat results video release. The entire process is efficiently connected, achieving both strike precision and effective public opinion dissemination. Its battlefield advantages are mainly reflected in three aspects: first, intelligence superiority, relying on 24-hour surveillance by Western satellites and drones, allowing clear tracking of Russian troop movements and even capturing details such as soldiers smoking; second, equipment upgrades, with the newly acquired US-made upgraded guided rockets extending their range to 90 kilometers and an error margin of only 2 meters; third, air power generation gap advantage, the deployment of F-16s and "Mirage 2000" aircraft enables the Ukrainian military to suppress Russian forces in air combat capabilities, with pilots even joking that in the future they will "fly faster than Russian missiles."

In stark contrast to the strong performance of the Ukrainian forces, the Russian military is currently mired in multiple predicaments: the offensive in the direction of Krasnogorivka has been completely thwarted due to severed supply lines; frontline soldiers suffer from low morale, with newly recruited troops being subjected to artillery fire immediately upon arriving at assembly points; anti-war sentiment continues to rise domestically, with polls showing that % of the public opposes the war, and anti-war protests led by mothers' groups are intensifying.

. Deep Strike: Ukrainian Military Drones Launch Surprise Attack on Russian Territory, Ammunition Depot No. Destroyed

On the evening of [date] (just after the Christmas holiday), Ukrainian forces launched a deep raid into Russian territory, successfully destroying the Russian military’s large ammunition depot No. [number] in the town of Neya, Kostroma Oblast, approximately [distance] kilometers east of Moscow. This ammunition depot, under the Russian General Directorate of Rocket and Artillery Armaments, serves as a critical storage and distribution center for artillery shells and missiles for the Russian Central and Western Military Districts, located about [distance] to [distance] kilometers from the Ukrainian border.

The attack employed a multi-drone low-altitude penetration mode, successfully evading Russian radar detection. After the drones dropped incendiary bombs on the ammunition depot, they triggered a chain reaction of explosions in the stored munitions (rumored to include "Iskander" missiles, glide bombs, rockets, etc.). The explosions continued incessantly, with flames soaring into the sky and towering black smoke columns. The tremors even propagated to Moscow kilometers away, leading local residents to initially mistake the event for an earthquake. The Ukrainian military released drone aerial footage confirming the combat results, while the Russian side issued an extremely brief statement, merely stating that "residents have been evacuated, and losses are under investigation."

The cost comparison of this attack is strikingly dramatic: the drones used by the Ukrainian forces are inexpensive, costing only a few hundred dollars each, while the Russian military spends up to a million dollars to intercept a single drone. A Ukrainian military spokesperson quipped, "Every time Russia intercepts one (drone), its treasury loses a strand of hair." The far-reaching impact of this deep strike is profound: Ukrainian intelligence hinted that the next step might involve targeting railway hubs within Russia to cut off the main artery of ammunition transport; the Russian military's transportation department was forced to urgently adjust train schedules and warned drivers to be vigilant against "Ukrainian express" (drones); residents of Moscow have grown accustomed to air raid alarms, with real estate developers even launching marketing ads such as "Properties within kilometers of the front line come with blast-proof windows and drone jammers," reflecting the spread of security anxiety within Russian territory.

Furthermore, on the same day, Ukrainian forces launched attacks on other targets within Russian territory: a drone strike on an oil depot in Usman, Lipetsk Oblast, triggered a massive explosion; in Tver Oblast, a Ukrainian drone, after being jammed, crashed into a residential building. In the Black Sea region, Ukrainian unmanned boats once again attacked the port of Novorossiysk, reportedly achieving the world's first record of an unmanned boat damaging a submarine, while Russia claimed the submarine suffered "minor water leakage." Although Russian forces launched counterattacks, using "Dagger" hypersonic missiles to strike energy facilities in Kharkiv and other areas of Ukraine, resulting in civilian casualties, they failed to reverse the overall passive situation. Notably, former Russian Deputy Prime Minister Boris Nadezhdin publicly criticized Putin, stating that he "absolutely will not win this special operation," and that this war will "lead to the demise of Russia." He also accused the Kremlin of fabricating lies to justify the attack on Ukraine, claiming that the main enemy of the Russian people is Putin himself, and that Ukraine's victory would benefit Russians. This reflects that internal doubts about the war in Russia have broken through existing circles.

Conclusion: Amidst intertwined multiple crises, geopolitics has entered a critical period of strategic competition.

The Russia-Ukraine conflict, which began at the start of the year, has entered a critical phase that will determine its future trajectory. The institutionalization and escalation of Western support for Ukraine, combined with breakthroughs in Ukraine’s deep-strike capabilities and the effectiveness of precision strikes on the frontlines, have placed Russia in a dual strategic and tactical predicament. Actions such as the Ukrainian military’s destruction of Russia’s No. ammunition depot have not only severely damaged Russia’s logistical supply system but also heightened security anxieties within Russian territory. In the future, the competition between Russia and Ukraine across multiple dimensions—including intelligence, equipment, and logistics—will intensify, directly influencing the course of the conflict and warranting close attention.