At the beginning of the year, the focus of the Russia-Ukraine conflict: Ukrainian forces conducted a deep raid and destroyed the Russian No. ammunition depot, altering the dynamics of the war situation.

In early 2026, the Russia-Ukraine conflict reached a critical turning point. The Ukrainian military penetrated deep into Russian territory and successfully destroyed the No. 100 large ammunition depot, located only 300 kilometers from Moscow, becoming the core focus. This marked the conflict entering a new phase where Ukrainian forces actively launched raids on Russian soil. At the same time, Ukrainian forces carried out precise strikes against Russian military convoys and command posts on the front lines. Coupled with the institutionalized upgrade of Western support for Ukraine, Russia was plunged into a dual strategic and tactical disadvantage. The overall situation of the war tilted in favor of the Ukrainian military. In early 2026, the Russia-Ukraine conflict reached a critical turning point. The Ukrainian military penetrated deep into Russian territory and successfully destroyed the No. 100 large ammunition depot, located only 300 kilometers from Moscow, becoming the core focus. This marked the conflict entering a new phase where Ukrainian forces actively launched raids on Russian soil. At the same time, Ukrainian forces carried out precise strikes against Russian military convoys and command posts on the front lines. Coupled with the institutionalized upgrade of Western support for Ukraine, Russia was plunged into a dual strategic and tactical disadvantage. The overall situation of the war tilted in favor of the Ukrainian military.

I. Russia-Ukraine Conflict: Institutionalization of Western Support and Breakthroughs in Deep Strikes by Ukrainian Forces

As of January 7, 2026, the Russia-Ukraine war has entered its 1412th day. At this stage, the conflict exhibits notable characteristics: deepening Western political alignment, precise tactical strikes by Ukrainian forces, and surprise attacks on Russian territory at a deeper level. The Russian military's winter offensive has been hindered, with the overall situation tilting in favor of Ukrainian forces.

. Ukraine, Britain, and France sign a garrison agreement, institutionalizing and long-termizing Western support for Ukraine.

On [Date], Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy signed a legally binding military deployment agreement in Paris with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron, marking a shift in Western support for Ukraine from temporary assistance to a long-term institutionalized framework.

According to the agreement, once the ceasefire agreement is implemented, the British and French allied forces will enter Ukraine as the first batch of troops, responsible for the security protection of its core areas such as the sky and ports; meanwhile, the agreement explicitly states that the construction of military infrastructure will be advanced, including the establishment of key facilities such as warehouses, runways, and command centers. All parties have expressed clear positions on this matter: British Prime Minister Starmer emphasized the need to establish a legal framework first before advancing infrastructure construction to avoid chaos caused by temporary responses; French President Macron directly pointed out that Putin has repeatedly torn up peace agreements over the past 15 years, stating that this deployment aims to prevent him from repeating such tactics; Zelenskyy publicly disclosed core details of the agreement on social media, including the scale of troops, weapon inventory, rotation cycles, and revealed that the U.S. military's supervision mechanism has been largely finalized.

In addition to the United Kingdom and France, other countries in the Western bloc have also simultaneously increased their support: the European Union has approved a billion-euro loan, scheduled to be disbursed in the second quarter of next year, with the collateral directly tied to Russia's frozen assets; the U.S. special envoy explicitly stated that the security agreement is largely finalized and will provide comprehensive backend support, including intelligence, satellites, and early warning aircraft, to European allies; the Canadian Prime Minister, meanwhile, indicated that sending troops is under consideration and will promote a collaborative weapons manufacturing project with Ukraine.

Regarding this agreement, the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs strongly condemned it, directly labeling it as a provocative act and a revival of the Cold War. Within Ukraine, the public responded positively, with even spontaneous expressions such as cocktails named after the Allied forces of Britain and France, as well as related tourism slogans and jokes emerging among the people. On the front lines, Russian troops experienced a decline in morale, with a large number of self-mocking jokes appearing on social media, reflecting a low state of mind within the forces.

. Frontline Situation: Ukrainian Forces Establish "Precision Strike Chain," Russian Offensive Hindered

Around January 6, the Ukrainian military carried out precision strikes against Russian targets on multiple fronts, leveraging intelligence superiority and equipment upgrades to achieve a "detect-and-destroy" tactical effect, effectively curbing the Russian offensive momentum.

In the Red Army Village (), Western satellites were the first to detect a Russian reinforcement convoy consisting of over a dozen armored trucks lining up on the highway. After confirming the target via drones, Ukrainian forces utilized HIMARS () to launch guided rockets for the strike. The rockets accurately hit the middle and rear sections of the convoy, triggering intense explosions and chain reactions, with black smoke columns rising up to three meters on-site. The strike resulted in the complete destruction of the Russian convoy, with debris from some vehicles scattered around. The scene also included the remains of fallen personnel that had not yet been cleared. While Russian authorities reported casualties, external estimates suggest the actual number of casualties may exceed one hundred, severely damaging a full reinforcement unit.

On the same day, the Ukrainian Air Force deployed F-16 fighter jets armed with GBU-39 small-diameter bombs, precisely striking a Russian commando headquarters in eastern Ukraine. To support the airstrike, two F-16s equipped with AIM-9 Sidewinder air-to-air missiles conducted patrols and provided cover in the airspace. Notably, high-definition photos of the Mirage 2000 fighter jets provided by France were revealed for the first time, with the MICA missiles mounted under their wings clearly visible, marking a further upgrade in Ukraine's air power.

. Tactical Advantages and Russian Military Dilemmas: Asymmetric Warfare Demonstrates Effectiveness

The recent series of strikes by the Ukrainian military highlights its mature precision strike chain: Satellite target detection → Drone calibration → HIMARS/air-to-ground missile finalization → Drone-captured 4K combat footage release. The entire process is efficiently coordinated, achieving both high strike accuracy and effective public communication. Its battlefield advantages are mainly reflected in three aspects: First, intelligence superiority, relying on Western satellites and drones for 24-hour surveillance, allowing clear monitoring of Russian military movements and even capturing details such as soldiers smoking; second, equipment upgrades, with the acquired upgraded U.S.-made guided rockets extending their range to 90 kilometers and an error margin of only 2 meters; third, air superiority through technological disparity, as the deployment of F-16s and Mirage 2000s enables the Ukrainian military to dominate in air combat capabilities, with pilots even joking that they will soon fly faster than Russian missiles.

In stark contrast to the strong performance of the Ukrainian forces, the Russian military is currently mired in multiple predicaments: the offensive in the direction of Krasnogorivka has been completely thwarted due to severed supply lines; frontline soldiers suffer from low morale, with newly recruited troops being subjected to artillery fire immediately upon arriving at assembly points; anti-war sentiment continues to rise domestically, with polls showing that % of the public opposes the war, and anti-war protests led by mothers' groups are intensifying.

. Deep Strike: Ukrainian Military Drones Launch Surprise Attack on Russian Territory, Ammunition Depot No. Destroyed

On the evening of [date] (just after the Christmas holiday), Ukrainian forces launched a deep raid into Russian territory, successfully destroying the Russian military’s large ammunition depot No. [number] in the town of Neya, Kostroma Oblast, approximately [distance] kilometers east of Moscow. This ammunition depot, under the Russian General Directorate of Rocket and Artillery Armaments, serves as a critical storage and distribution center for artillery shells and missiles for the Russian Central and Western Military Districts, located about [distance] to [distance] kilometers from the Ukrainian border.

The attack employed a multi-drone low-altitude penetration mode, successfully evading Russian military radar detection. After the drones dropped incendiary bombs on the ammunition depot, they triggered a chain reaction of explosions among the stored munitions (rumored to include Iskander missiles, glide bombs, rockets, etc.). The explosions continued incessantly, with flames soaring into the sky and towering black smoke columns. The shockwaves even propagated as far as Moscow, 300 kilometers away, where local residents initially mistook it for an earthquake. The Ukrainian military released drone aerial footage confirming the combat results, while the Russian side provided an extremely brief statement, only mentioning the evacuation of residents and that damage assessment is underway.

The cost comparison of this attack is highly dramatic: the drones used by the Ukrainian military are inexpensive, costing only a few hundred dollars each, while the cost for the Russian military to intercept a single drone is as high as one million dollars. A Ukrainian military spokesperson joked that for every drone Russia intercepts, its treasury loses a strand of hair. The subsequent impact of this deep strike is profound: Ukrainian intelligence hinted that the next step might involve targeting railway hubs within Russia to cut off the main artery of ammunition transportation; the Russian military's transportation department was forced to urgently adjust train schedules and warned drivers to be vigilant against "Ukrainian deliveries" (drones); residents of Moscow have grown accustomed to air raid alarms, and real estate developers have even launched marketing campaigns for properties within 350 kilometers of the front line, offering blast-proof windows and drone jammers as incentives, reflecting the spread of security anxiety within Russian territory.

Additionally, on January 6, the Ukrainian military launched attacks on other targets within Russian territory: a drone strike on an oil depot in Usman, Lipetsk Oblast, triggered a massive explosion; in Tver Oblast, a Ukrainian military drone, after being jammed, crashed into a residential building. In the Black Sea direction, Ukrainian unmanned surface vessels once again attacked the port of Novorossiysk, reportedly achieving the world's first record of an unmanned surface vessel damaging a submarine, while the Russian side claimed the submarine suffered minor water leakage. Although the Russian military launched counterattacks, using Kinzhal hypersonic missiles to strike energy facilities in Kharkiv and other areas of Ukraine, resulting in civilian casualties, they failed to reverse the overall passive situation. Notably, former Russian Deputy Prime Minister Boris Nadezhdin publicly criticized Putin, stating that he would absolutely not win this special operation, that this war would lead to the demise of Russia, and accusing the Kremlin of fabricating lies to attack Ukraine. He claimed that the main enemy of the Russian people is Putin himself, and that Ukraine's victory would benefit the Russians, reflecting that internal doubts about the war within Russia have broken through social circles.

Conclusion: Amidst intertwined multiple crises, geopolitics has entered a critical period of strategic competition.

The Russia-Ukraine conflict, which began at the start of the year, has entered a critical phase that will determine its future trajectory. The institutionalization and escalation of Western support for Ukraine, combined with breakthroughs in Ukraine’s deep-strike capabilities and the effectiveness of precision strikes on the frontlines, have placed Russia in a dual strategic and tactical predicament. Actions such as the Ukrainian military’s destruction of Russia’s No. ammunition depot have not only severely damaged Russia’s logistical supply system but also heightened security anxieties within Russian territory. In the future, the competition between Russia and Ukraine across multiple dimensions—including intelligence, equipment, and logistics—will intensify, directly influencing the course of the conflict and warranting close attention.