Trump's Withdrawal from International Organizations: An In-depth Analysis of Strategic Intentions and Global Impact

On [date], former U.S. President Trump signed a presidential memorandum at the White House, formally announcing the United States' withdrawal from several international organizations. This move set a historical record for the number of "withdrawals" in a single instance, triggering widespread global shock. The organizations involved in this withdrawal include several United Nations agencies and non-United Nations organizations, covering an extremely broad range of fields, including critical areas of global governance such as arms control and disarmament, climate governance, human rights, economic cooperation, culture, and education.

From a historical perspective, these international organizations were largely established as key components of the post-World War II globalized system, shaped under the dominance of the United States, which held a significant share of the world’s gold reserves and industrial output. They serve as "core levers" for maintaining the hegemony of the U.S. dollar and the American-led international order. Among them, institutions such as the World Bank constitute the "core working group" that upholds the financial order of the U.S. dollar, while others like the United Nations play vital roles in ideological dissemination and global rule-setting. The Trump administration’s large-scale withdrawal this time not only escalates previous "exiting from international organizations" but is also regarded as a symbolic event marking the United States’ formal departure from the very globalized system it once led.

II. The Strategic Intent Behind Trump's Large-Scale "Withdrawal from International Organizations"

(1) Macro-National Level: The Transformation and Cost Considerations of the Hegemony Model

1. Strategic Contraction Under Cost-Benefit Imbalance: The U.S. government believes that the cost of maintaining the existing international organizational system far exceeds the benefits. In the past, the United States could achieve "a call answered by hundreds" within international organizations, reaping enormous profits through rule-making and ideological export. However, as its own influence declines, it frequently encounters evasion and excuses when calling on allies to cooperate. The investment in maintaining the system and the returns have gradually become imbalanced, leading it to choose to proactively withdraw in order to reduce costs.Strategic Contraction Under Cost-Benefit Imbalance: The U.S. government believes that the cost of maintaining the existing international organizational system far exceeds the benefits. In the past, the United States could achieve "a call answered by hundreds" within international organizations, reaping enormous profits through rule-making and ideological export. However, as its own influence declines, it frequently encounters evasion and excuses when calling on allies to cooperate. The investment in maintaining the system and the returns have gradually become imbalanced, leading it to choose to proactively withdraw in order to reduce costs.
2. Disappointment with Allies' Cooperation and Strategic Adjustment: The Trump administration believes that there is a gap in the capabilities of some current European leaders compared to the past, making it difficult for them to effectively cooperate with the United States' global strategy. The decline in the quality of allies has hindered the United States' path to achieving its interests through the multilateral system. In this context, the United States has abandoned its reliance on the multilateral alliance system and shifted towards a more direct model of interest acquisition.Disappointment with Allies' Cooperation and Strategic Adjustment: The Trump administration believes that there is a gap in the capabilities of some current European leaders compared to the past, making it difficult for them to effectively cooperate with the United States' global strategy. The decline in the quality of allies has hindered the United States' path to achieving its interests through the multilateral system. In this context, the United States has abandoned its reliance on the multilateral alliance system and shifted towards a more direct model of interest acquisition.
3. The Ultimate Manifestation of the "America First" Policy: This represents a core transformation of the American hegemony model—shifting from the indirect model of the past, which "traded ideology for benefits," to the radical model of "abandoning empty prestige and directly seizing benefits." The Trump administration attempted to break free from the constraints of international rules and laws by withdrawing from international organizations, aiming to achieve the goal of "going it alone" to dominate global affairs and sending a tough signal to the world: "Either listen to me, or get out." The Ultimate Manifestation of the "America First" Policy: This represents a core transformation of the American hegemony model—shifting from the indirect model of the past, which "traded ideology for benefits," to the radical model of "abandoning empty prestige and directly seizing benefits." The Trump administration attempted to break free from the constraints of international rules and laws by withdrawing from international organizations, aiming to achieve the goal of "going it alone" to dominate global affairs and sending a tough signal to the world: "Either listen to me, or get out."

(II) Micro-politics and Individual Level: Electoral Interests and Mindset Shifts

1. Political Opportunism in the Midterm Elections: With the 2025 midterm elections approaching, Trump faces the risk of impeachment by the Democratic Party and urgently needs to consolidate his core base. The large-scale "withdrawal from international groups" precisely aligns with the "White First," "anti-globalization," and "sovereignty above all" ideologies of his supporter base. It is a political performance aimed at pleasing the "redneck" voters and securing votes through radical foreign policies.Political Opportunism in the Midterm Elections: With the 2025 midterm elections approaching, Trump faces the risk of impeachment by the Democratic Party and urgently needs to consolidate his core base. The large-scale "withdrawal from international groups" precisely aligns with the "White First," "anti-globalization," and "sovereignty above all" ideologies of his supporter base. It is a political performance aimed at pleasing the "redneck" voters and securing votes through radical foreign policies.
2. Psychological Backlash After Being Rejected by Western Elites: In the early days of his administration, Trump attempted to integrate into the circle of Western political elites, showing compromise on issues such as attitudes toward Russia and allies' military spending, but he was never truly accepted. This prolonged sense of exclusion led to a shift in his mindset, moving from "trying to stabilize the situation" to "adopting a defeatist attitude." He was no longer willing to "swallow his pride" for the sake of multilateralism, instead venting his dissatisfaction and retaliating against the elite circles through radical "withdrawals from international groups." Psychological Backlash After Being Rejected by Western Elites: In the early days of his administration, Trump attempted to integrate into the circle of Western political elites, showing compromise on issues such as attitudes toward Russia and allies' military spending, but he was never truly accepted. This prolonged sense of exclusion led to a shift in his mindset, moving from "trying to stabilize the situation" to "adopting a defeatist attitude." He was no longer willing to "swallow his pride" for the sake of multilateralism, instead venting his dissatisfaction and retaliating against the elite circles through radical "withdrawals from international groups."

III. The Far-Reaching Global Impact of Large-Scale "Withdrawal from Groups"

(1) Impact on the United States Itself: Erosion of Hegemonic Foundations and Risk of International Isolation

1. The Permanent Destruction of the Global Trust System: In his article "The Moment of Doom," Distinguished Professor Acharya from American University points out that regardless of who the next president is, Trump's "withdrawal from groups" behavior has permanently destroyed the world's trust in and reliance on the United States. The U.S. is no longer seen as the "leader of the free world"; instead, it is defined as an "indispensable rogue nation," suffering irreversible losses to its long-accumulated soft power and international credibility.The Permanent Destruction of the Global Trust System: In his article "The Moment of Doom," Distinguished Professor Acharya from American University points out that regardless of who the next president is, Trump's "withdrawal from groups" behavior has permanently destroyed the world's trust in and reliance on the United States. The U.S. is no longer seen as the "leader of the free world"; instead, it is defined as an "indispensable rogue nation," suffering irreversible losses to its long-accumulated soft power and international credibility.
2. Increased Risk of International Isolation: Large-scale "withdrawal from international organizations" narrows the channels of cooperation between the United States and most countries globally. Many netizens question whether this move represents "America First" or rather "Trump's Self-Priority," arguing it will lead to the U.S. becoming isolated internationally and further weaken its global influence.Increased Risk of International Isolation: Large-scale "withdrawal from international organizations" narrows the channels of cooperation between the United States and most countries globally. Many netizens question whether this move represents "America First" or rather "Trump's Self-Priority," arguing it will lead to the U.S. becoming isolated internationally and further weaken its global influence.

(II) Impact on the Global Order: The Shaking of the Multilateral System and the Brewing of a New Order

1. Severe Shaking of the Post-World War II Multilateral System: These international organizations are crucial pillars of the global order established after World War II. The withdrawal of the United States has directly led to operational disorder and funding interruptions in some organizations, damaging the professionalism and fairness of global governance. Daniel Forti, the UN Affairs Director at the International Crisis Group, points out that U.S. policy towards multilateralism has become completely entrenched, and this attitude will severely undermine the foundation of global cooperation.Severe Shaking of the Post-World War II Multilateral System: These international organizations are crucial pillars of the global order established after World War II. The withdrawal of the United States has directly led to operational disorder and funding interruptions in some organizations, damaging the professionalism and fairness of global governance. Daniel Forti, the UN Affairs Director at the International Crisis Group, points out that U.S. policy towards multilateralism has become completely entrenched, and this attitude will severely undermine the foundation of global cooperation.
2. Brewing of a New Order Excluding the United States: Acharya predicts that the world will gradually move away from the United States, establishing a network of economic and security relations that excludes the U.S. Even if the U.S. attempts to return to multilateralism in the future, the global landscape will have undergone irreversible changes, and American hegemony will officially come to an end. Currently, entities such as China, India, and the European Union have demonstrated a willingness to uphold the global order and may become the core drivers of a new multilateral system.Brewing of a New Order Excluding the United States: Acharya predicts that the world will gradually move away from the United States, establishing a network of economic and security relations that excludes the U.S. Even if the U.S. attempts to return to multilateralism in the future, the global landscape will have undergone irreversible changes, and American hegemony will officially come to an end. Currently, entities such as China, India, and the European Union have demonstrated a willingness to uphold the global order and may become the core drivers of a new multilateral system.

(III) Impact on International Organizations: Funding Disruption and Functional Restructuring

The Trump administration explicitly demanded that all departments immediately cease funding support for these international organizations, which constitutes a "fatal blow" for institutions reliant on American funds. Particularly for some small and medium-sized international organizations, the disruption of their funding chains could lead to operational paralysis. At the same time, the U.S. withdrawal also presents an opportunity for the reform and restructuring of international organizations, pushing them to break free from American control and shift toward a more equitable and diverse governance model.

III. International Community's Response and Future Predictions

The international community generally holds a concerned attitude toward this "withdrawal" incident: Western allies, caught off guard due to not being informed in advance, have further doubts about the strategic credibility of the United States; developing countries, on the other hand, worry that the vacuum in global governance will lead to a greater proliferation of unilateralism and hegemonism.

From the perspective of future trends, in order to win the midterm elections, Trump is highly likely to continue pursuing an aggressive foreign policy, and the United States' "disorderly" unilateral actions have only just begun. The world is entering a period of turbulence, with the struggle between the multilateral system and unilateralism becoming the core contradiction. The chain reaction triggered by Trump's recent "withdrawal from the group" will continue to reshape the global political, economic, and security landscape. The end of American hegemony and the establishment of a new global order may become the core trend for the coming decades.