Trump's Withdrawal from International Organizations: An In-depth Analysis of Strategic Intentions and Global Impact

On January 7, 2025, former U.S. President Trump signed a presidential memorandum at the White House, formally announcing that the United States will withdraw from 66 international organizations. This move set a historical record for the number of withdrawals in a single instance, causing widespread global shock. The organizations being exited include 31 United Nations agencies and 35 non-UN organizations, covering a wide range of critical global governance areas such as arms control and disarmament, climate governance, human rights, economic cooperation, culture, and education.

From a historical perspective, these international organizations are largely integral components of the globalization system established under the leadership of the United States after World War II, leveraging its advantages of holding 75% of the world's gold reserves and 50% of global industrial output. They serve as key instruments in maintaining the hegemony of the U.S. dollar and the American-led international order. Among them, institutions such as the IMF and the World Bank form the core working groups that uphold the financial order centered around the U.S. dollar, while organizations like the WHO and the IPCC play significant roles in ideological export and global rule-making. The Trump administration's recent large-scale withdrawals not only escalate previous actions of leaving international bodies but are also viewed as a symbolic event marking the United States' formal disengagement from the very globalization system it once spearheaded.

II. The Strategic Intent Behind Trump's Large-Scale "Withdrawal from International Organizations"

(1) Macro-National Level: The Transformation and Cost Considerations of the Hegemony Model

1. Strategic Contraction Under Cost-Benefit Imbalance: The U.S. government believes that the cost of maintaining the current international organization system far exceeds the benefits. In the past, the United States could rally widespread support within international organizations, securing enormous profits through rule-making and ideological export. However, as its influence declines, it frequently encounters evasion when calling on allies to cooperate. The investment in maintaining the system and the returns have gradually become unbalanced, leading to a proactive withdrawal to reduce costs.
2. Disappointment with Allies' Cooperation and Strategic Adjustment: The Trump administration believes that there is a gap in the capabilities of some current European leaders compared to the past, making it difficult for them to effectively cooperate with the United States' global strategy. The decline in the quality of allies has hindered the United States' path to achieving its interests through the multilateral system. In this context, the United States has abandoned its reliance on the multilateral alliance system and shifted towards a more direct model of interest acquisition.Disappointment with Allies' Cooperation and Strategic Adjustment: The Trump administration believes that there is a gap in the capabilities of some current European leaders compared to the past, making it difficult for them to effectively cooperate with the United States' global strategy. The decline in the quality of allies has hindered the United States' path to achieving its interests through the multilateral system. In this context, the United States has abandoned its reliance on the multilateral alliance system and shifted towards a more direct model of interest acquisition.
3. The Ultimate Manifestation of America First Policy: This represents the core transformation of the U.S. hegemonic model—shifting from the indirect approach of the past, which exchanged ideological influence for benefits, to a radical model that abandons superficial prestige and directly seizes interests. The Trump administration attempted to free itself from the constraints of international rules and regulations by withdrawing from international organizations, aiming to dominate global affairs unilaterally and sending a tough message to the world: either follow my lead or get out.

(II) Micro-politics and Individual Level: Electoral Interests and Mindset Shifts

1. Political Opportunism in the Midterm Elections: With the 2025 midterm elections approaching, Trump faces the risk of impeachment by the Democratic Party and urgently needs to consolidate his core base. The large-scale withdrawal from international organizations precisely aligns with the "White First," anti-globalization, and sovereignty-first ideology of his supporter base. It is a political performance aimed at appealing to "redneck" voters and securing votes through radical foreign policy.
2. Mindset Rebound After Exclusion by Western Elites: In the early stages of his presidency, Trump attempted to integrate into the circle of Western political elites, showing compromise on issues such as attitudes toward Russia and allies' military spending. However, he was never truly accepted. This prolonged sense of exclusion led to a shift in his mindset—from trying to stabilize the situation to adopting a "broken jar" mentality. He became unwilling to endure grievances for the sake of multilateral stability and instead vented his dissatisfaction and retaliated against the elite circles through radical withdrawals from international agreements.

III. The Far-Reaching Global Impact of Large-Scale "Withdrawal from Groups"

(1) Impact on the United States Itself: Erosion of Hegemonic Foundations and Risk of International Isolation

1. Permanent Destruction of the Global Trust System: In his article "The Doomsday Moment," Acharya, a distinguished professor at an American university, pointed out that regardless of who the next president is, Trump's withdrawal actions have permanently destroyed the world's trust and reliance on the United States. The U.S. is no longer seen as the leader of the free world; instead, it is defined as an indispensable rogue nation, suffering irreversible losses to its long-accumulated soft power and international credibility.
2. Increased Risk of International Isolation: Large-scale withdrawal from international organizations narrows the channels of cooperation between the United States and the majority of countries worldwide. Many netizens question whether this move represents "America First" or rather "Trump First," arguing that it will lead to the United States becoming isolated internationally and further weaken its global influence.

(II) Impact on the Global Order: The Shaking of the Multilateral System and the Brewing of a New Order

1. Severe Shaking of the Post-World War II Multilateral System: These international organizations are crucial pillars of the global order established after World War II. The withdrawal of the United States has directly led to operational disorder and funding interruptions in some organizations, damaging the professionalism and fairness of global governance. Daniel Forti, the UN Affairs Director at the International Crisis Group, points out that U.S. policy towards multilateralism has become completely entrenched, and this attitude will severely undermine the foundation of global cooperation.Severe Shaking of the Post-World War II Multilateral System: These international organizations are crucial pillars of the global order established after World War II. The withdrawal of the United States has directly led to operational disorder and funding interruptions in some organizations, damaging the professionalism and fairness of global governance. Daniel Forti, the UN Affairs Director at the International Crisis Group, points out that U.S. policy towards multilateralism has become completely entrenched, and this attitude will severely undermine the foundation of global cooperation.
2. Brewing of a New Order Excluding the United States: Acharya predicts that the world will gradually move away from the United States, establishing a network of economic and security relations that excludes the U.S. Even if the U.S. attempts to return to multilateralism in the future, the global landscape will have undergone irreversible changes, and American hegemony will officially come to an end. Currently, entities such as China, India, and the European Union have demonstrated a willingness to uphold the global order and may become the core drivers of a new multilateral system.Brewing of a New Order Excluding the United States: Acharya predicts that the world will gradually move away from the United States, establishing a network of economic and security relations that excludes the U.S. Even if the U.S. attempts to return to multilateralism in the future, the global landscape will have undergone irreversible changes, and American hegemony will officially come to an end. Currently, entities such as China, India, and the European Union have demonstrated a willingness to uphold the global order and may become the core drivers of a new multilateral system.

(III) Impact on International Organizations: Funding Disruption and Functional Restructuring

The Trump administration explicitly demanded that all departments immediately cease financial support to these international organizations, which constitutes a fatal blow to agencies reliant on U.S. funding. Particularly for some small and medium-sized international organizations, a break in the funding chain could lead to operational paralysis. Meanwhile, the U.S. withdrawal also presents an opportunity for the reform and restructuring of international organizations, driving them to break free from American control and shift toward a more equitable and diverse governance model.

III. International Community's Response and Future Predictions

The international community generally holds a concerned stance towards this withdrawal incident: Western allies, having not been informed in advance, find themselves caught off guard and harbor further doubts about the strategic credibility of the United States; developing countries, on the other hand, worry that the vacuum in global governance will lead to a greater proliferation of unilateralism and hegemonism.

From the perspective of future trends, in order to win the midterm elections, Trump is highly likely to continue pursuing aggressive foreign policies, and the United States' disorderly unilateral actions have only just begun. The world will enter a period of turbulence, with the struggle between multilateral systems and unilateralism becoming the core contradiction. The chain reaction triggered by Trump's withdrawal from international agreements this time will continue to reshape the global political, economic, and security landscape. The end of American hegemony and the establishment of a new global order may become the core trend for the coming decades.