[TR] Military ongoing updated 2026-06-09

Turkey's Defence-Industrial Rise

▲ Building · since 30 Apr 2026 · 14 events

Assessment

Turkey is converting a decade of indigenisation into a self-reinforcing defence-industrial engine: $30bn of military spending in 2025 (22% routed through the national defence-industry fund), a record $8bn in export contracts signed in the first three days of SAHA 2026, and 2025 exports topping $10bn — a 48% jump that puts Ankara within reach of its top-10-exporter target for 2028. The sprint shows across every domain at once. Baykar unveiled three new kamikaze drones (K2, Sivrisinek, Mizrak) to swarm under TB2 command; Aselsan fielded Tufan USVs and the Kılıç family of kamikaze underwater drones plus Steel Dome electronic-warfare nodes; Roketsan scaled its Alka laser to 10kW as Steel Dome's hard-kill layer; and the Ministry of National Defence claimed a domestic-propellant breakthrough for the Yıldırımhan long-range ballistic missile. Two large exercises anchored the showcase — EFES-2026 closed with a record 50 nations and the first Bayraktar TB3 sorties from TCG Anadolu, and Sea Wolf-2/2026 put 125 naval assets across four seas with the first live use of the PIRANA kamikaze USV. Demand is following supply: Gulf states are buying Turkish air defence as US deliveries lag, CANiK's M3 FALCON counter-drone gun is shipping to Pakistan and Azerbaijan, and Ankara is selling itself as a co-production ecosystem rather than a catalogue. The binding constraints are economic (high inflation, currency volatility against a $30bn topline) and capability gaps the firms themselves flag — NATO-dependent high-end air defence and slipping timelines on Kaan, Altay and the MUGEM carrier.

Theatre

Persian GulfGulf of OmanMediterraneanRed SeaBlack SeaCaspian SeaBaltic Sea IRANIRAQSAUDI ARABIASYRIATURKEYJORDANOMANU.A.E.YEMENUKRAINERUSSIABELARUSPOLANDROMANIA

Events

  1. 1 5 Jun 2026 Aselsan showcases Kılıç kamikaze underwater drones to EFES-2026 delegations
    İzmir

    At the EFES-2026 exercise, Aselsan showcased its KILIÇ family of kamikaze autonomous underwater vehicles to international delegations, highlighting ranges from 10 to 200 nautical miles, control via wire, RF or satellite, and swarm operations as a cost-effective alternative to coastal-defence cruise missiles. The drones can be launched from shore or mounted on unmanned surface vessels, and rely on Aselsan's in-house sensors and command-and-control. The KILIÇ is Aselsan's second ship-killing kamikaze system after the Albatros USV, used in a 2023 maritime strike drill.

    Export demonstrationShowing the Kılıç UUV to international delegations at EFES — rather than just unveiling it at a trade fair — is the deliberate conversion of an exercise into a live sales demonstration aimed at the 50 visiting nations.
    Cost-substitution pitchMarketing a 10–200nm-range kamikaze UUV as a cheaper alternative to coastal-defence cruise missiles is the explicit value proposition — undercutting the price of conventional anti-ship deterrence with an expendable swarm.
    Vertical integrationRelying on Aselsan's in-house sensors and C2 (and building on the earlier Albatros USV) shows a single prime owning the full underwater-strike stack — the deep localisation that lets Turkey export the whole capability, not just hulls.
  2. 2 4 Jun 2026 Roketsan scales Alka laser to 10kW as Steel Dome's hard-kill layer
    Ankara

    Roketsan is integrating its upgraded Alka laser weapon — scaled from 2.5kW to over 10kW — into the Steel Dome multi-layer air-defence architecture as its directed-energy hard-kill component. The 10kW version is already operational, enabling soft-kill and hard-kill against evolving drone threats including wired, jam-resistant variants, with AI to cut detection and response times and advanced radar to prioritise faster targets. Director Koray Dayanç said Alka is designed to protect critical infrastructure, bases and moving units as the final hard-kill layer against swarm kamikaze drones that evade other assets.

    Directed-energy layerA 10kW operational laser as Steel Dome's final hard-kill tier gives the architecture a near-zero-cost-per-shot answer to swarm drones — the cost-exchange fix for the saturation problem that missile interceptors lose on economics.
    Threat adaptationSpecifically targeting wired, jam-resistant drone variants shows the system is being tuned to a live arms race — a laser kills the very threat that EW jamming cannot, closing a concrete gap in the layered defence.
    Power scalingQuadrupling output from 2.5kW to 10kW with further increases planned tracks the engineering reality of directed-energy weapons — capability gated by power, and Roketsan demonstrating it can climb that curve domestically.
  3. 3 Jun 2026 pivotal Turkey launches Sea Wolf-2/2026 across four seas with first PIRANA kamikaze-USV use
    Black Sea / Aegean / Eastern Mediterranean

    The Turkish Naval Forces Command began the Sea Wolf-2/2026 exercise on 4 June 2026, spanning the Black Sea, Sea of Marmara, Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean with 125 naval assets, 60 aircraft and 18,000 personnel. It featured live-fire demonstrations of domestically developed systems — ATMACA anti-ship missiles, AKYA heavyweight torpedoes and HISAR-D naval air-defence missiles — plus the first operational use of the PIRANA kamikaze unmanned surface vessel. The drill tested command-and-control, combat readiness and interoperability among the armed forces and civilian agencies.

    Indigenous live-fireFiring ATMACA (anti-ship), AKYA (torpedo) and HISAR-D (naval air defence) together proves a domestically built naval kill-chain end to end — the exercise validating exactly the indigenous systems the export catalogue is selling.
    PIRANA first useThe PIRANA kamikaze-USV's first operational use moves Turkey's expendable-swarm concept from SAHA Expo display to live naval operations — the deployment milestone behind the 100-USV procurement.
    Four-sea reachRunning one drill across the Black Sea, Marmara, Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean with 125 assets is a deliberate demonstration of multi-theatre naval command — signalling reach across every body of water on Turkey's contested periphery.
  4. 3 21 May 2026 Defence committee orders 100 expendable USVs split across three industry teams
    Ankara

    Turkey's Defence Industry Executive Committee approved procurement of 100 expendable unmanned surface vessels (decided February 2026), with production split across three teams: Aselsan/Ares Shipyard (40 Tufan USVs), STM/Yonca Shipyard (32 Yaktu USVs) and Havelsan/Sefine Shipyard (32 units). The 8m Tufan carries an Mk 82-equivalent payload; both Tufan and Yaktu, unveiled at SAHA Expo 2026, feature low-profile hulls, line-of-sight and satellite comms, and swarm architecture for autonomous cooperative precision strikes against maritime and coastal targets.

    Serial procurementA confirmed 100-unit order — not a prototype — is the moment the kamikaze-USV concept becomes a fielded swarm; the Mk 82-equivalent payload on an 8m hull defines a cheap, expendable anti-ship effector built in volume.
    Triple-sourcingSplitting the buy across Aselsan/Ares, STM/Yonca and Havelsan/Sefine spreads work to three prime-shipyard pairs at once — building parallel production capacity and competition rather than a single supplier dependency.
    Saturation logicSwarm architecture with satellite/LOS comms across 100 boats is designed for cooperative saturation strikes — the maritime mirror of Baykar's drone swarms, pitched as a low-cost substitute for coastal-defence missiles.
  5. 4 19 May 2026 pivotal EFES-2026 closes with record 50 nations and first Bayraktar TB3 sorties from TCG Anadolu
    İzmir

    The EFES-2026 Combined Joint Exercise (20 April–21 May) concluded with a record 50 nations and over 10,000 personnel from countries including the US, Japan, Azerbaijan and Italy — Syria participating for the first time since the fall of the Baathist regime and Libya's divided eastern and western forces (331 east, 177 west) jointly for the first time. Highlights included the Bayraktar TB3 UCAV operating from TCG Anadolu, the Steel Dome integrated air-defence system, and a single-operator KARGU loitering-munition swarm. An accompanying exhibition featured the Kaan fighter, HÜRJET trainer and Anka-3 stealth drone, and a defence science competition drew 292 entries from 69 universities.

    Carrier debutThe Bayraktar TB3 flying from TCG Anadolu showcases the world's first drone-carrier concept as a working capability — Turkey demonstrating shipborne armed-UCAV operations from a large-deck amphibious carrier, a niche no other navy fields.
    Diplomatic convening powerA record 50 nations with first-time Syrian participation and unified Libyan rival forces turns EFES into a soft-power instrument — Turkey using its exercise as a diplomatic stage that arms exports and basing relationships feed off.
    Full-stack showcasePairing live TB3/Steel Dome/KARGU-swarm demonstrations with a Kaan/HÜRJET/Anka-3 exhibition lets buyers see fielded and emerging systems together — the exercise doubling as the sales floor for the export pipeline.
  6. 5 16 May 2026 TAI begins naval HÜRJET variant for the future MUGEM aircraft carrier
    Ankara

    Turkish Aerospace Industries (TAI) officially initiated development of a shipborne variant of the HÜRJET supersonic jet trainer and light-attack aircraft, adding strengthened landing gear, an arresting hook and corrosion protection for naval operations. The naval HÜRJET is intended to fly from Turkey's planned MUGEM indigenous aircraft carrier alongside the KIZILELMA and TB-3 unmanned aircraft. Spain recently selected HÜRJET for its advanced jet-trainer requirement, with deliveries from 2028.

    Carrier air wingA carrier-capable HÜRJET fills the manned-jet slot in a future air wing already planned around unmanned KIZILELMA and TB-3 — the concrete step that turns the MUGEM carrier ambition into a fixed-wing fleet, not just a drone deck.
    Export validationSpain selecting HÜRJET for its trainer needs (deliveries 2028) is a NATO-member endorsement that de-risks the platform commercially before the naval variant even flies — export revenue underwriting the carrier programme.
    Long lead timeAn arresting-hook-and-landing-gear redesign for a carrier whose hull is years from delivery is the structural gap in Turkey's naval ambition — the platform is being designed well ahead of the ship that will carry it.
  7. 12 May 2026 Aselsan unveils Tufan USV, Kılıç kamikaze underwater drones and Steel Dome EW nodes
    Istanbul

    At SAHA EXPO 2026 Aselsan unveiled autonomous naval-strike systems — the Tufan unmanned surface vehicle and the Kılıç family of unmanned underwater vehicles (Kılıç 10 and Kılıç 200), both described as kamikaze platforms for swarming operations. It also introduced upgraded electronic-warfare systems — the Koral AD long-range radar electronic-attack system and an upgraded Ilgar communications jammer — both integrated into the Steel Dome air-defence architecture. CEO Ahmet Akyol outlined a strategy of networked, mass-producible, commercial-component, cost-effective systems for attritional warfare, targeting 40% export revenue by 2030, with the new systems expected in inventory by 2027.

    Attritional doctrineAkyol's explicit pivot to 'networked, mass-producible, commercial-component, cost-effective' kamikaze USV/UUVs is the doctrinal core of Turkey's whole programme — designing for attrition and a 40%-export-by-2030 target, not exquisite low-volume platforms.
    Steel Dome integrationFolding Koral AD and the upgraded Ilgar jammer into Steel Dome shows the architecture is being built node-by-node as a real integrated system — EW layers added to the radar/effector stack rather than sold as standalone boxes.
    Near-term fieldingAn in-inventory-by-2027 timeline for the Tufan/Kılıç swarm makes this a procurement reality, not a concept — and dovetails with the separate February 2026 order for 100 expendable USVs.
  8. 11 May 2026 Gulf states turn to Turkish air defence as US deliveries lag
    Ankara

    Gulf and Arab states facing ammunition shortages and Iranian drone threats are increasingly buying Turkish air-defence systems amid US delivery backlogs. Kuwait signed a procurement protocol with Turkish firms, while Saudi Arabia and Qatar showed interest in anti-drone systems such as the Korkut, and Iraq is finalising purchases. The shift positions Turkey as a backstop supplier precisely where the US industrial base cannot deliver on time.

    Backlog substitutionGulf buyers reaching for Korkut and Turkish air defence is direct substitution for US systems stuck in delivery backlog — Turkey monetising the same Western munitions shortfall that is straining NATO inventories.
    Iran-threat demandKuwait's procurement protocol plus Saudi/Qatari/Iraqi interest is demand pulled forward by Iranian drone threats — the regional war converting Turkey's counter-UAS line into immediate orders from cash-rich states.
    Geopolitical footholdSelling air defence to GCC states deepens Ankara's security ties in a region where it competes with US and other suppliers — arms exports doubling as strategic alignment leverage.
  9. 8 May 2026 pivotal SAHA 2026 sets record with ~$8bn in deals as 2025 exports top $10bn
    Istanbul

    At the SAHA 2026 fair in Istanbul, Turkish companies signed nearly $8 billion in export contracts in the first three days — a record — across 182 agreements including $6bn in direct export deals, with over 1,760 firms from 120-plus countries attending. Erdoğan announced 2025 defence exports exceeded $10 billion, a 48% year-over-year rise and more than triple 2021, with exports to Europe and the US nearly quadrupling to $5.6bn. Turkey now exports 230-plus systems to 185 countries and supplies about 65% of armed drones worldwide; it aims to enter the top-10 exporters by 2028, with deals secured with Poland, Spain, Portugal and Romania, and Baykar acquiring Italy's Piaggio Aerospace.

    Export inflection$10bn in 2025 exports (48% YoY, triple 2021) with the EU/US channel quadrupling to $5.6bn marks the shift from regional supplier to NATO-internal vendor — selling into the same European market that once embargoed it.
    Drone monopolySupplying ~65% of the world's armed drones is a near-monopoly position that gives Turkey pricing power and political leverage; the Baykar–Piaggio acquisition and Poland/Spain/Portugal/Romania deals turn that into European industrial footholds.
    Order-book depth$8bn signed in three days ($6bn direct exports) is forward demand, not just delivered revenue — the contracted pipeline that underwrites the top-10-by-2028 target and the capacity expansions firms are announcing.
  10. 8 May 2026 Defence ministry claims domestic-propellant breakthrough for Yıldırımhan long-range ballistic missile
    Ankara

    After unveiling the Yıldırımhan long-range/intercontinental ballistic missile at SAHA 2026, Turkey's Ministry of National Defence announced a domestic propellant breakthrough — using locally produced unsymmetrical dimethylhydrazine fuel and dinitrogen tetroxide oxidiser, transitioned from laboratory quantities to serial production. The missile can carry a 3-ton warhead and has completed laboratory testing, with field testing planned. Indigenising the propellant removes a key foreign-supply chokepoint for a strategic-range system.

    Supply-chain sovereigntyLiquid-propellant chemistry (UDMH/N2O4) is an export-controlled chokepoint for long-range missiles — moving it to serial domestic production is the specific step that frees Yıldırımhan from foreign denial, the same logic that drove F-35 to Kaan.
    Strategic signallingA 3-ton-warhead, long/intercontinental-range system raises strategic-intent questions that exceed any current Turkish threat — analysts read it as much as a deterrence/prestige statement amid Israel tensions as a fielded capability.
    Maturity gapLab-tested with field testing still pending means the propellant milestone is real engineering progress on an unproven weapon — the announcement runs ahead of demonstrated range, a recurring pattern in the flagship programmes.
  11. 7 May 2026 CANiK M3 FALCON counter-drone heavy machine gun begins exports to Pakistan and Azerbaijan
    Istanbul

    Samsun Yurt Savunma (SYS) began exporting its CANiK M3 FALCON heavy machine gun — a 12.7x99mm weapon developed to neutralise drones and loitering munitions from helicopters — with first shipments to Pakistan and Azerbaijan, and over 40 units to be integrated onto more than 20 Azerbaijani helicopters. The system was showcased at SAHA 2026. SYS also signed a $50 million deal to equip 100 armoured vehicles in Kosovo with turrets and 30x113mm cannons, underscoring Turkey's role in cost-effective counter-drone solutions.

    Counter-drone nicheA helicopter-mounted 12.7mm gun purpose-built to kill loitering munitions targets the exact threat Turkish drones themselves popularised — SYS selling the cheap defensive answer to the offensive market Baykar created.
    Export footprintFirst customers Pakistan and Azerbaijan (40+ guns onto 20+ helicopters) plus a $50m Kosovo turret/cannon deal show the export base spans South Asia, the Caucasus and the Balkans — the same strategic-partner geography that absorbs TB2s.
    Affordability edgeMarketing a gun-based hard-kill rather than missile interception is a deliberate cost play — Turkey competing on price-per-kill against drones, where Western missile-based counter-UAS is far more expensive.
  12. 5 May 2026 Meteksan unveils MILSAS synthetic-aperture mine-hunting sonar at SAHA EXPO 2026
    Istanbul

    Turkish firm Meteksan introduced the National Synthetic Aperture Sonar (MILSAS) at SAHA EXPO 2026 in Istanbul, providing high-resolution underwater imaging for mine detection, seabed mapping and infrastructure inspection. The system is aimed at both military and civilian use, and Meteksan said it intends to expand exports through technology transfer and partnerships. It joins a wave of indigenous underwater-sensing programmes localising a capability previously bought from foreign suppliers.

    Sensor localisationSynthetic-aperture sonar is high-end ASW/MCM sensing Turkey historically imported — fielding MILSAS domestically closes a specific dependency gap and feeds the same Black Sea / Gulf mine-warfare need that drives Armelsan's Nusrat-1915.
    Dual-use exportPitching the same sonar for seabed mapping and infrastructure inspection widens the addressable market beyond navies to offshore energy and survey buyers — a deliberate civil-military export hedge.
    Tech-transfer modelSelling via technology transfer rather than finished units is the 'ecosystem not catalogue' strategy at the component level — exporting the capability to co-produce, which deepens partner lock-in.
  13. 1 May 2026 pivotal Baykar unveils three kamikaze drones — K2, Sivrisinek and Mizrak — to swarm under TB2 command
    Ankara

    Baykar unveiled three new kamikaze drones — the K2, Sivrisinek and Mizrak — that analysts said could surpass Iran's Shahed series in autonomous capability, swarm tactics and precision. The drones feature AI-based autonomy and network-centric swarm-attack skills, and are designed for coordinated layered attacks coordinated by the Bayraktar TB2. The combination is pitched as potentially shifting the regional drone-power balance by pairing a proven command platform with cheap, expendable strike munitions.

    Swarm architectureThe design point is not the individual drone but the TB2-as-controller stack — K2/Sivrisinek/Mizrak as expendable effectors under a combat-proven MALE command node, the networked-swarm template Baykar pioneered with TB2/Akıncı now pushed down to attritable loitering munitions.
    Shahed benchmarkExplicitly measuring the trio against Iran's Shahed (the saturation weapon of the Ukraine and Gulf wars) signals Baykar is targeting the mass-precision-strike export market, not just ISR — the segment with the largest current demand.
    Cost-mass doctrineThree new cheap kamikaze types at once is the air-domain expression of the same attritable-mass logic Aselsan applies at sea — quantity engineered to outlast a saturation fight rather than a handful of exquisite UCAVs.
  14. 30 Apr 2026 SIPRI: Turkey's 2025 military spending hits $30bn, topping seven neighbours combined
    Ankara

    SIPRI data put Turkey's 2025 military expenditure at $30 billion — exceeding the combined defence budgets of Greece, Iraq, Azerbaijan, Bulgaria, Armenia, Georgia and Iran — a 7.2% real rise on 2024 and a 94% increase over the decade. Crucially, 22% of the budget was routed through the national defence-industry fund, hard-wiring domestic procurement and industrial development into the topline. Operational commitments in northern Iraq, Syria and Somalia continue to drive costs, while high inflation and currency volatility raise sustainability and contracting-transparency concerns.

    Industrial policyChannelling 22% of a $30bn budget through the defence-industry fund is the structural mechanism behind every later headline — it converts annual spending into capitalised domestic capacity (Aselsan, Roketsan, Baykar lines) rather than off-the-shelf imports.
    Regional asymmetryA single-country budget larger than Greece, Iran, Iraq, Azerbaijan, Bulgaria, Armenia and Georgia combined is the concrete measure of how far the spending gap has tilted the eastern-Mediterranean and Caucasus balance toward Ankara.
    Sustainability ceilingThe 94%-over-a-decade real rise runs into Turkey's inflation and lira volatility — the one variable that can stall the build-out, since a topline this large must be financed in a currency the same report flags as unstable.

Background

From importer to exporter

Turkey's defence push began after Western arms embargoes (notably over the 1974 Cyprus intervention and again in the 2010s) convinced Ankara that import dependence was a strategic liability. The drive accelerated sharply after the 2019 expulsion from the US F-35 programme over the purchase of Russian S-400 air defences, which pushed Turkey to build its own fifth-generation fighter (TAI's TF Kaan) and to localise systems it could no longer buy. Real-world local-content rose from roughly 20% in 2002 to over 80% by the mid-2020s, and exports hit a record $7.1bn in 2024 before climbing past $10bn in 2025 — Turkey selling ~230 product types to 185 countries through primes Aselsan, Roketsan, TUSAŞ/TAI and Baykar. The synthetic timeline here extends that trajectory into 2026.

The Baykar drone engine

Baykar, chaired by Selçuk Bayraktar (with brother Haluk as CEO), turned the Bayraktar TB2 medium-altitude UCAV into the world's most-exported armed drone — combat-proven in Nagorno-Karabakh, Ukraine and Tigray and sold to 30-plus countries — followed by the larger Akıncı. Its carrier-capable TB3 was designed to fly from TCG Anadolu, the Turkish Navy's 27,000-ton flagship (derived from Spain's Juan Carlos I) and the world's first ship configured as a drone carrier, swapping catapults and arresting gear for endurance and low-cost sorties. This lineage — cheap, networked, attritable airpower — is the template the 2026 kamikaze-drone and unmanned-surface-vessel programmes scale across the maritime and ground domains.

Steel Dome and layered defence

Turkey's answer to its NATO-dependent high-end air defence is Steel Dome (Çelik Kubbe), a networked, multi-layer architecture knitting together Aselsan radars (Alp, Koral, Gürz, Korkut), Roketsan effectors and a directed-energy hard-kill tier. The doctrine on display in 2026 is explicit: networked, mass-producible, commercial-component, cost-effective systems for attritional warfare rather than exquisite one-offs — Aselsan targeting 40% export revenue by 2030. The same logic drives the kamikaze USV/UUV swarms (Tufan, Kılıç, PIRANA, Yaktu) pitched as a cheap substitute for coastal-defence cruise missiles.

The constraints

The rise is real but bounded. The $30bn 2025 topline (a 94% real rise over the decade per SIPRI) is carried against high inflation and currency volatility, raising sustainability and contracting-transparency questions, while operations in northern Iraq, Syria and Somalia keep absorbing budget. Analysts flag capability gaps the export numbers obscure: continued reliance on NATO for top-tier air defence, delays in flagship programmes (Kaan fighter, Altay tank, full Steel Dome coverage), and the long lead times of naval ambitions like the MUGEM indigenous carrier (delivery not before 2032). The Yıldırımhan long-range/intercontinental missile, meanwhile, raises strategic-intent questions that outrun its still-untested field status.