Trump's Iran war strains US alliances globally, allies hedge security strategies

President Donald Trump's decision to withdraw 5,000 U.S. troops from Germany and threats to reduce forces in Italy and Spain, combined with a muted response to Iranian strikes on the United Arab Emirates, have deepened allied doubts about U.S. reliability as a security guarantor, prompting European and Asian partners to hedge their security strategies.

Trump announced the withdrawal of 5,000 of the 36,400 U.S. troops stationed in Germany after Chancellor Friedrich Merz angered him by saying publicly that Iran was humiliating the U.S. The Pentagon then scrapped a planned deployment of Tomahawk cruise missiles to Germany. Trump said he was also considering reducing U.S. forces in Italy and Spain, whose leaders have been at odds with him over the war.

"President Trump has made his disappointment with NATO and other allies clear," White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly said, noting that some requests to use military bases in Europe for the Iran war had been denied by host governments. She said Trump "will never allow the U.S. to be treated unfairly and taken advantage of by so-called allies."

The rift widened after the U.S. and Israel struck Iran on Feb. 28, 2026, claiming without evidence that Tehran was close to developing a nuclear weapon. Iran retaliated by closing the Strait of Hormuz, causing an unprecedented global energy shock that hit European economies hard.

When Iran launched missile and drone attacks against the United Arab Emirates in the week of May 11, 2026, Trump dismissed a strike on Monday as minor, though it set fire to the Fujairah oil port and prompted the government to close schools. Even after further attacks later in the week, he insisted a month-old ceasefire was still holding.

"Trump's recklessness with respect to Iran is resulting in some dramatic shifts," said Brett Bruen, a former adviser in the Obama administration who now heads the Situation Room strategic consultancy. "U.S. credibility is at stake."

European governments have responded by stepping up efforts to increase cooperation among themselves, shoulder more of their own defense burden and jointly develop weapons systems to reduce reliance on the U.S. Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski told a conference in Warsaw there is no need to panic so long as Europe delivers on promised higher military spending, which Trump has long demanded.

Jeff Rathke, president of the American-German Institute at Johns Hopkins University, said Merz "is not trying to hide the critical assessment of what the U.S. has gotten itself into."

In Asia, the war has stirred anxiety among partners heavily dependent on oil that flowed freely through the Strait of Hormuz before the conflict. "What worries us most is that trust in, respect for, and expectations toward the U.S., the core partner in the alliance Japan values most, have been shrinking," Takeshi Iwaya, who served as Japan's foreign minister at the start of Trump's second term, told Reuters. "It could cast a long shadow over the entire region."

Russia, a leading energy producer, has benefited from higher oil and natural gas prices driven up by the Iran war. China has seized the opportunity to promote itself as a more reliable global partner than the unpredictable Trump, who is due to visit Beijing next week.

Victoria Coates, Trump's former deputy national security adviser and now a vice president at the Heritage Foundation, said Beijing would have difficulty using the U.S. war against Iran as "carte blanche to run around the world saying that we're a destabilizing force."

Trump, barred by law from running again, leaves office in January 2029.