Texas Republican Senate runoff between Paxton and Cornyn could open door for Democrat Talarico
Texas voters go to the polls on Tuesday for a Republican Senate primary runoff between Attorney General Ken Paxton, endorsed by President Donald Trump, and incumbent Senator John Cornyn. The winner will face Democratic state Representative James Talarico in November’s midterm election. Polls show Talarico tied with or leading both Republican candidates, raising the possibility of a Democratic flip in a state that has not elected a Democrat statewide since 1994.
Voters in Texas head to the polls on Tuesday for the Republican runoff in the U.S. Senate primary, a contest between state Attorney General Ken Paxton, 63, and incumbent Senator John Cornyn, 74, that could open the door for Democrat James Talarico in November.
Paxton was endorsed by President Donald Trump in a post on Truth Social, in which Trump said Cornyn was not supportive of him when “times were tough.” Cornyn has voted with Trump 99 percent of the time and has closely aligned himself with Trump on immigration and border security. The winner will face Democratic nominee James Talarico, a 37-year-old state representative, in the midterm election. Democrats have not held a statewide seat in Texas since 1994.
Polls show Talarico tied with or leading both Republican candidates. A University of Texas poll showed Talarico leading Paxton by eight points and Cornyn by seven points. Texas Public Opinion Research had Talarico ahead of Cornyn by three points and ahead of Paxton by five. A Texas Polling Project survey showed 36 percent of independents backing Talarico over Cornyn and 39 percent backing him over Paxton, with a large share of independents remaining undecided.
“Ken Paxton presents a target-rich environment for Democrats in November: allegations of serial adultery, mortgage fraud, securities fraud, a 7,000 percent increase in net worth while in public office, retaliation against conservative whistleblowers, support for January 6th, and ties to disgraced investor Nate Paul, including using his position as attorney general to benefit him. There’s just so much to work with,” Mark Jones, professor of political science at Rice University, told Al Jazeera.
Among the most vocal Texas Republicans opposing Paxton is state Representative Matt Shaheen, who wrote on X: “Ken Paxton is the Democrat’s best hope to turn Texas blue!” A poll commissioned by Texans for a Conservative Majority, a pro-Cornyn super PAC, and shared by the Texas Tribune, suggested that a Paxton nomination could lead to a five-to-eight-point decline for Republicans in down-ballot races.
“This is certainly a Republican state and a Republican seat, but it could also end up being the perfect storm for Democrats,” Renee Cross, senior executive director at the Hobby School of Public Affairs at the University of Houston, told Al Jazeera.
Texas’s two most competitive recent Senate races both involved Ted Cruz. In 2024, Cruz defeated Colin Allred by roughly 9 points. In 2018, Beto O’Rourke lost to Cruz by 2.6 points.