FIFA World Cup 2026 faces heightened terrorism risk in US amid Iran conflict and intelligence gaps

The 2026 FIFA World Cup in the United States faces elevated terrorism risks, with homegrown violent extremists and lone actors radicalized online by extreme political views or jihadists such as ISIS identified as the primary threat, according to four counter-terror experts interviewed. The US-Israel conflict with Iran and a depletion of counter-terrorism expertise within federal law enforcement are amplifying vulnerabilities, the experts warned.

"We need to protect not only each venue, but all the other links in the chain that get to the point of the game," said Javed Ali, associate professor at the University of Michigan and former FBI, DHS, and NSC senior director for counter-terrorism. "There are just so many games. There's only so many resources to deploy to try to buy down risk against a number of different threats."

The tournament will span about six weeks with 104 matches across the US, Canada, and Mexico. The US will host 78 matches in 11 cities: Atlanta, Boston, Dallas, Houston, Kansas City, Los Angeles, Miami, Philadelphia, the San Francisco Bay Area, Seattle, and East Rutherford, New Jersey. Only the final at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford will be designated a National Special Security Event (NSSE), triggering a centralized federal operation led by the Secret Service. FEMA has allocated $625 million to support World Cup security and emergency preparedness.

In March, the FBI held a large residential training exercise on domestic threats ahead of the World Cup. One federal law enforcement source who attended the FBI meeting said agents were "alarmed" and that "there is a very real possibility that something bad will happen." The source spoke on condition of anonymity.

Colin Clarke, director of research at the Soufan Group, said: "I think it's only a matter of time before we experience a terrorist attack on US soil with the drone involved." Tracy Walder, former CIA and FBI special agent, said: "What I've seen is that we have lapses in our security when different agencies... fail to communicate with each other."

The potential for an Iran vs. United States match in Texas on July 3, coupled with the expected heavy presence of the Saudi royal family in Houston, raises additional concerns, said the federal law enforcement source. "You have the Saudi royal family in close proximity to where Iran and the United States would be playing, it's like adding gas on the fires," the source said.

In February, a Washington-based FBI counterintelligence unit, CI-12, which tracked foreign spies and terrorism threats, was fired in retaliation for their involvement in the investigation of Trump's alleged retention of classified documents, according to reports. Ali warned: "My hope is that these decisions... are not contributing to the inability of the FBI to execute its national security missions. Because that makes the country less safe."

Recent attacks underscore the threat. On January 1, 2025, a man drove a pickup truck into a crowd on Bourbon Street in New Orleans, killing 14 and injuring dozens; an ISIS flag was later found in the vehicle. In March, an attacker with a prior ISIS-support conviction opened fire on an ROTC class at Old Dominion University, killing one instructor and injuring two cadets. In April, a lone gunman targeted the White House correspondents' dinner.