US Congress moves toward symbolic vote to end Iran war, signaling waning support

The U.S. Congress is moving closer to voting to end President Donald Trump's war against Iran, with the House of Representatives expected to vote as soon as today on a concurrent resolution ordering the president to withdraw U.S. troops from the conflict. A concurrent resolution does not go before the president for signature or veto and does not have the force of law, as the Supreme Court has previously ruled such measures amount to a "legislative veto."

In the Senate, a legally binding joint resolution ordering an end to the Iran war is also advancing. The president can veto that measure, and anti-war lawmakers lack the supermajorities necessary in both chambers to overturn a veto. A vote on passage of the Senate joint resolution may come as soon as next week. In the possible event of a tied vote, Vice President J.D. Vance could be called to break the tie.

Signs of softening Republican support for the war emerged last month in both chambers. In the Senate, enough Republican lawmakers broke ranks to vote with Democrats, 50-47, on a procedural vote to allow floor consideration of a joint resolution. Republicans in the House then canceled a scheduled vote on a similar concurrent resolution after it became clear it would likely pass. Three earlier war powers votes in the House were unsuccessful, with the most recent one failing in a tie.

Democratic Sen. Tim Kaine, the sponsor of the joint resolution, told reporters on Tuesday that Trump cannot ignore the political signal Congress is preparing to send to "find an off ramp" in the war against Iran. Democratic Sen. Chris Murphy told Secretary of State Marco Rubio during a Senate hearing on Tuesday that "the entire country is seized by the question of when there will be an agreement, because apparently until there is an agreement, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed." Trump has said he believes Iran is stalling peace talks in the hopes that the U.S. midterms might force the White House to cave on key demands.

Experts said a congressional vote ordering an end to the war is likely to be viewed in Tehran as a "litmus test" that could strengthen the pro-negotiations faction of the Iranian regime. "A vote like that may be an indicator that public support is waning and some of [the Iranian government's] strategic calculations will have worked well," said Reza H. Akbari, Middle East and North Africa program manager at the Institute for War and Peace Reporting. "Ultimately, we know that the president holds a lot of power, but it does communicate the limits of the United States' current appetite for escalation."

Alex Vatanka, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, said a majority in Tehran think "time is on their side, that the Americans are not going to invade, they are not going to occupy. The most they are going to do is another set of attacks on Iran, and that's not going to bring the regime down. So why give America what America wants?"

The largely symbolic action would signal flagging U.S. belief in Trump's ability to prosecute the war successfully, but experts said it could also lead Iranian officials to conclude they can wait out the administration and avoid meaningful concessions in peace talks.