Russian territorial gains in Ukraine fall to 14 sq km in May, lowest in three years

Russian forces captured just 14 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory in May, the lowest monthly gain in three years, according to the Ukrainian military analysis group DeepState. The analysts said May was the first month since Ukraine's 2023 counteroffensive that the net increase in Russian-held territory was negative.

Despite a 37.5% rise in Russian assaults to over 7,000 attacks in May, the increased tempo did not translate into significant territorial gains, DeepState reported. The group described the situation near Kostiantynivka as difficult, with an unfavorable outlook for the city. On 29 May, DeepState reported that Ukraine's defence forces had liberated territory near Novoselivka on the Oleksandrivka front.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) assessed on 28 May that Russia's 2026 advance has slowed sharply. ISW analyst George Barros told The Hill that for the first time since 2023, Ukraine reclaimed more ground than Russia.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in a 31 May interview with CBS News that Russia began losing momentum in December 2025 under heavy losses, opening a window for negotiations. "They couldn't occupy territories more during one month than they lose during the same month," he said. Zelenskyy said Ukraine has six to nine months to seize the initiative and strengthen its hand in possible talks.

The head of Britain's GCHQ signals intelligence agency, Anne Keast-Butler, said on 27 May that Russia has lost nearly half a million soldiers killed in the war.

DeepState quoted: "The war is entering a new phase, and it is important for the Ukrainians not to lose the initiative."