Russia's oil revenue surged to $19 billion in March on Iran war windfall, IEA reports
Russia's oil revenue climbed to $19 billion in March from $9.75 billion in February, driven by the Iran war pushing crude above $100 a barrel, the International Energy Agency reported. Despite the windfall, Russia's Finance Ministry recorded a 234.3 billion ruble ($3.12 billion) shortfall against its baseline oil-and-gas revenue projection for March, with every month of 2026 falling below baseline. Finance Minister Anton Siluanov acknowledged on May 3 that income and expenditure had stayed flat despite the windfall, and Sberbank's CFO forecast the ruble would weaken to 80-90 per dollar by year-end.
Russia's oil revenue surged to $19 billion in March from $9.75 billion in February, the International Energy Agency reported, as the Iran war pushed crude above $100 a barrel. Russian crude and oil-product exports rose by 320,000 barrels per day month-on-month, hitting 7.1 million barrels per day.
Despite the windfall, Russia's Finance Ministry recorded a 234.3 billion ruble ($3.12 billion) shortfall against its baseline oil-and-gas revenue projection for March. Every month of 2026 to date has come in below baseline. Finance Minister Anton Siluanov acknowledged on May 3 that income and expenditure over the past two months had stayed flat despite the windfall. The federal budget will receive only an extra 200 billion rubles ($2.67 billion) over an unspecified period.
Sberbank's CFO Taras Skvortsov said on April 29 that the ruble will weaken from around 75 to the dollar to 80–90 in the second half of 2026, with the steepest slide expected in the fourth quarter. The ruble traded at 76 to the dollar in January 2022, 139 after the invasion, 114 in November 2024, 86 during the Iran war, and 76 today.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on April 29 disclosed Russian internal data obtained by Ukraine's Foreign Intelligence Service: loadings at Primorsk dropped by 13%, at Novorossiysk by 38%, and at Ust-Luga by 43%. "We believe that such internal Russian data may be underestimated," Zelenskyy said. "We will continue our operation to reduce Russia's oil revenues and export volumes." He added: "Russia's special efforts will be aimed at counteracting our cooperation in the Middle East and the Gulf."
Reuters calculated in March that 40% of Russia's oil export capacity was offline. Ukrainian strikes have inflicted at least $7 billion in losses on Russia since the start of 2026, Zelenskyy said. Ukrainian drones have hit the Tuapse refinery and export terminal four times in just over two weeks.