Russian forces suffer net territorial loss in Ukraine in April 2026 for first time since August 2024, ISW says
Russian forces in Ukraine lost a net 116 square kilometers of controlled territory in April 2026, the first such monthly net loss since Ukraine's August 2024 incursion into Russia's Kursk Oblast, the Institute for the Study of War reported on May 2. The average daily Russian gain in the first four months of 2026 fell to 2.9 km², down from 9.76 km² per day in the same period of 2025. ISW attributed the slowdown to Ukrainian counterattacks, mid-range strikes, a February 2026 block on Russia's use of Starlink terminals in Ukraine, and Kremlin throttling of Telegram.
Russian forces in Ukraine suffered a net loss of 116 square kilometers of controlled territory in April 2026, the first such monthly net loss since Ukraine's August 2024 incursion into Russia's Kursk Oblast, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported on May 2.
The average daily Russian gain in the first four months of 2026 fell to 2.9 km², down from 9.76 km² per day in the same period of 2025. ISW attributed the slowdown to a compounding set of pressures: Ukrainian ground counterattacks, Ukrainian mid-range strikes, the February 2026 block on Russia's use of Starlink terminals in Ukraine, and the Kremlin's throttling of Telegram.
Russian forces seized 1,443.35 km² between November 2025 and April 2026, compared to 2,368.38 km² over the same six months a year earlier — a year-on-year drop of about 925 km². ISW noted that the comparison is complicated by Russia's increased use of infiltration tactics through 2025, with small Russian groups penetrating into Ukrainian-held "gray zones" rather than seizing terrain outright. Including infiltrations, Russia's net April figure was 28.28 km² gained, but infiltrations papered over the 116 km² controlled-territory loss.
"The Kremlin uses Russian infiltration tactics in part to exaggerate Russian control of terrain," ISW stated in its May 2 assessment. The think tank noted that Russian forces "do not control these infiltration areas, which are often collocated among Ukrainian positions in contested 'gray zones.'"
ISW noted that part of the slowdown may be seasonal: eastern Ukraine's winter of 2025-2026 was about 1.67°C colder and significantly wetter than the previous winter, with rasputitsa mud degrading mechanized movement. The think tank also said it had reviewed and refined its mapping data and methodology, identifying and rectifying some data artifacts that did not affect visible map geometry but did affect some area calculations. These changes have not affected ISW's previously assessed trendlines of the Russian rate of advance.