KIIS poll: 61% of Ukrainians reject ceasefire without security guarantees, 61% accept with European troops defending frontline
A new Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) poll conducted from 7 May to 3 June 2026 shows that 61% of Ukrainians categorically reject a ceasefire along the current frontline without security guarantees, while the same share would approve a ceasefire if European troops were stationed near the frontline and would defend Ukraine against renewed Russian aggression. The survey of 2,007 Ukrainian citizens in government-controlled territory tested four scenarios, with support ranging from 32% for an unconditional ceasefire to 61% for one backed by active European defense. The findings indicate that the ceasefire itself is not the disputed question, but the presence and nature of security guarantees are.
KYIV (Reuters) — More than 60% of Ukrainians categorically reject a ceasefire along the current frontline without security guarantees, while the same share would approve a ceasefire if European troops were stationed near the frontline and would defend Ukraine against renewed Russian aggression, according to a new poll by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS).
The survey, conducted between 7 May and 3 June 2026, tested four ceasefire scenarios among 2,007 Ukrainian citizens aged 18 and older in government-controlled territory. The polling period covered a full month of US-mediated diplomatic activity. KIIS used computer-assisted telephone interviews (CATI) with random sampling of mobile phone numbers. The data does not include displaced Ukrainians abroad or those in Russian-occupied territories.
In the first scenario — a ceasefire without security guarantees, money, or weapons — 61% of respondents categorically rejected the offer, while 32% said they would approve, mostly reluctantly. The finding underscores that the unconditional ceasefire repeatedly framed by Russian negotiators as a starting point falls short by roughly two-to-one.
Support rose when guarantees were introduced. In the second scenario — a ceasefire with European troops deployed deep inside Ukraine but not participating in combat if Russia attacks again — 49% rejected and 42% approved. A passive Western presence did not command majority support.
The third scenario — a ceasefire with security guarantees in the form of large-scale financial and weapons supply — saw 37% reject and 53% approve, giving material guarantees majority backing but with significant skepticism remaining.
The fourth scenario — a ceasefire with European troops stationed near the frontline who would actively defend Ukraine against renewed Russian aggression — drew the highest support: 33% rejected and 61% approved. Active defense by European forces made a ceasefire acceptable to a clear majority, the poll found.
"The ceasefire itself is not the disputed question, but security guarantees are," KIIS said. Across the four scenarios, support ranged from 32% for an unconditional ceasefire to 61% for one backed by active European defense.