Turkey faces strategic choice on military modernization amid rising tensions with Israel

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan faces a strategic choice on whether to accelerate military modernization in preparation for a potential conflict with Israel, as rhetoric between the two countries escalates but Turkish officials have avoided direct threats. Despite a year of heated exchanges, including Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's December 2025 charge that Ankara seeks to reestablish Ottoman imperial rule over the Levant — declaring Turks "should not even think about it" — Ankara has steered a neutral course on the prospect of an Israeli contingency. Former Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett warned that Turkey constitutes a new threat akin to the Islamic Republic of Iran, a sentiment echoed by pro-Israeli voices in the United States. Erdoğan has offered only vague promises of resolve, declaring on X (formerly Twitter): "Turkey is no longer the old Turkey. Everyone should do their calculations accordingly …"

There are indications both sides have worked to minimize the possibility of direct confrontation. After Israeli warplanes attacked a prospective Turkish airbase in Syria in March 2025, the two sides reportedly agreed to establish a deconfliction hotline. In January 2026, Turkey took heart after Israel refused to impede Syria's offensive against autonomous Kurdish forces in the northeast. With Israel now embroiled in a conflict with both Iran and Hizballah, observers in Ankara remain confident no war is imminent.

A closer look at Turkey's defense sector reveals significant gaps despite domestic media touting its capabilities. A number of military systems remain in development, including the Kaan fifth-generation fighter aircraft, the Kizilelma fixed-wing drone, and the Cenk and Tayfun mid-range ballistic missiles. Serial production of the Altay main battle tank was announced only in late 2025; media sources state the Turkish army possesses as few as three tanks in service. The Ukrainian military now makes little use of the TB-2 Bayraktar drone despite initial plaudits. Turkey still relies on NATO assets for air defense; NATO forces intercepted four Iranian missiles over Turkish soil in March 2026. The backbone of the air force, its fleet of F-16s, requires significant upgrades that are not forthcoming due to American sanctions. Turkey recently purchased Eurofighters from Qatar and the United Kingdom, but the fighters have not yet arrived.

Erdoğan's public statements have shifted in response to Israeli campaigns. "We must be very strong so that Israel cannot do these things to Palestine," he told an audience in 2024. "Just as we entered Karabakh and just as we entered Libya, we will do exactly the same to [Israel]." Turkey's National Security Council completed a four-year interagency review of security imperatives in 2024; an official summary references Israel as a barrier "to ensuring regional stability," particularly in Syria and Gaza.

The early May 2026 Istanbul International Defence and Aerospace Fair unveiled Yildirimhan, Turkey's first intercontinental ballistic missile, with a range of 6,000 kilometers and a payload of up to 3,000 kilograms. A Turkish Ministry of Defense video showed the missile striking targets along the U.S. eastern seaboard. Some Turkish experts questioned the utility of such a weapon, asking what potential targets beyond Israel its developers had in mind.

The National Assembly in Ankara recently awarded the Ministry of Defense a 30 percent increase in funds compared to the previous year. However, Turkey's current inflation rate is around 30 percent, likely diminishing the impact of the budget increase over the year ahead. Accelerated investment into new weapons systems could heighten Israeli concerns and undermine diplomatic efforts, potentially pressing Israel to make equally proactive measures and intensifying an arms race.