Ankara Positions Itself as Route Around Gulf War Choke Points
Ankara spent June 3 positioning itself around the Gulf war's choke points: Transport Minister Abdulkadir Uraloğlu unveiled plans to modernize the Hejaz Railway and extend it to Oman as an alternative to the Strait of Hormuz, while the navy opened Sea Wolf-2/2026 — 125 vessels, 60 aircraft and 18,000 personnel across four seas. Halkbank shares rallied toward the June 10 close of the US sanctions case, the EBRD cut its 41-economy growth forecast to 3.1% on war fallout, and the Trade Ministry moved against seven Schengen visa-bot firms.
The clearest signal of where Turkish markets think the US relationship is heading came from Halkbank: the state lender's shares surged nearly 10% Tuesday and kept climbing Wednesday, with investors betting the US sanctions case closes on June 10 when the 90-day compliance window under the March agreement expires. The deal spared the bank any admission of criminal wrongdoing or fines over the alleged Iran sanctions-evasion scheme, and Ernst & Young is auditing its compliance; the stock is now up 25% on the year against a 6% decline for the banking index. The rally fronts a data-heavy June — first-quarter GDP, May inflation and a central bank rate decision are all due, with the bank having held its rate at 37% in May while lifting its end-2026 inflation target to 24% in what it called the war's shock environment.
The war's geography is also redrawing Turkish infrastructure ambitions. Transport and Infrastructure Minister Abdulkadir Uraloğlu announced plans to modernize the century-old Hejaz Railway and extend it all the way to Oman, explicitly framed as an alternative global trade route to the Strait of Hormuz. The first stage would connect Turkey to Aleppo over the existing Aleppo-Damascus-Jordan network while negotiations with Saudi authorities continue; the end state is a rail corridor from Anatolia to the Indian Ocean that no Iranian minelayer can touch.
The navy opened its own demonstration of reach: Sea Wolf-2/2026, running June 4-14 across the Black Sea, the Sea of Marmara, the Aegean and the Eastern Mediterranean, with 125 naval assets, 60 aircraft and some 18,000 personnel under Rear Adm. Alper Doğukanlı. The live-fire program showcases domestically developed systems, including the ATMACA anti-ship missile and the AKYA heavyweight torpedo.
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development put a number on what the war is costing the wider neighborhood: its 2026 growth forecast for its 41 economies fell to 3.1%, half a point below February's projection, on soaring energy costs and supply-chain disruption. Lebanon and Iraq took the deepest cuts — now expected to contract 2% and 1.5% respectively — and chief economist Beata Javorcik called the report "a story of the continued energy shock."
Domestically, the Trade Ministry opened investigations into seven companies accused of using bots to hoover up Schengen visa appointments and resell them at inflated prices — a racket that has helped shut Turkish citizens out of a system in which Turkey ranked second globally for applications in 2025. The Advertising Authority opened parallel reviews after 143 complaints through the Presidential Communication Center, with Trade Minister Ömer Bolat citing payments funneled to personal bank accounts. And the diplomatic calendar keeps filling: Nigerien President Abdourahamane Tchiani arrives June 4 at President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's invitation to expand the Africa portfolio, while preparations continue for the NATO leaders' summit Ankara hosts in July — the stage to which Mark Rutte has invited Volodymyr Zelenskyy.