Turkey Opposition Crisis Deepens as Erdogan Presses Advantage

Turkey's political crisis around its main opposition deepened on Saturday. Kemal Kilicdaroglu, restored as CHP leader by a May 21 Ankara court that annulled the party's 2023 congress, made his first visit to its Ankara headquarters and pledged to convene a congress "as soon as possible." His return followed a May 24 raid in which riot police forced their way into the building with tear gas and batons to remove the ousted leader, Ozgur Ozel, who told thousands at a rally that "the CHP does not accept appointments" and demanded an immediate congress and primary, offering to step down only if he won less than 85 percent support. One poll found just 11 percent of Turks approved of his removal.

Analysts framed the move as the latest step in President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's campaign to weaken an opposition that had been gaining ground -- the CHP defeated his AKP in the 2024 local elections, and Ozel had driven more than 100 rallies over the past year. Gonul Tol of the Middle East Institute pointed to the March jailing of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, Erdogan's chief rival, and warned that "Turkey is moving closer to a Russia-style system." International reaction stayed muted, with Ankara valued by Washington and the EU as a security partner.

The turmoil compounds an economic strain that is itself fuelling public anger: Turkish inflation ran near 75 percent in May, alongside currency volatility and shaken investor confidence -- the backdrop to the soaring food prices Ozel has tapped in his rallies.

Beyond domestic politics, analysts weighed Turkey's external hand as the Iran war winds down. Ankara's ability to talk to Tehran, its NATO membership and its repaired Gulf ties give it rare leverage, they argued, but dependence on NATO air defence and exposure to energy-price shocks counsel a selective, middle-power approach rather than overreach.