UK food prices on track for 50% rise since 2021 as climate, energy and Iran-war shocks compound, ECIU finds

UK food prices are on course to be 50 percent higher in November than at the start of the cost-of-living crisis in 2021, according to research by the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU). The pace of food-price growth has nearly quadrupled, with the past five years matching the cumulative price rise of the previous two decades.

Climate and energy shocks are the principal drivers identified by the report. Pasta, frozen vegetables, chocolate, and eggs are all at least 50 percent more expensive than five years ago. Beef is up 64 percent and olive oil has more than doubled. The ECIU attributed the increases to "sensitivity to volatile oil and gas prices, synthetic fertiliser costs, and climate impacts such as droughts, floods and heatwaves, both in the UK and in key import regions." Three of England's worst harvests on record have occurred in the past five years.

Chris Jaccarini, a food and farming analyst at the ECIU, said the Middle East war would compound those pressures. "Trump's war in the Middle East is set to drive shopping bills higher as oil and gas prices spike," Jaccarini said. "Scientists are predicting 2027 to be the hottest year on record with climate change combining with the El Niño effect kicking off this year." The Bank of England expects food inflation to rise to 7 percent by the end of the year on higher fertiliser, energy, and transport costs.

The cumulative pressure has already pushed household food bills up by an average of £605 across 2022 and 2023, the report said. Five climate-exposed staples — butter, milk, beef, chocolate, and coffee — have driven much of the continued food-inflation pressure in recent months.

Anna Taylor, executive director of the Food Foundation, said the impact on the lowest-income households was already visible. "Food prices rising this high and this fast leaves families on the lowest incomes with nowhere left to cut except the food on their plate," Taylor said. "When that happens, people skip meals, children go hungry, and diet-related illness rises — taking parents out of work and piling pressure on an NHS that can least afford it." A Food Foundation survey on 30 April found three million UK households were already skipping meals, and ECIU separately reported a 92 percent year-on-year jump in Northern Ireland heating-oil prices in March.

Adjusted for average wages, food prices have risen 11 percent since the start of the cost-of-living crisis, the ECIU said, compounding the wage-adjusted increases in other unavoidable household bills, including energy and water.