Burnham's Devolution Plan Hits Money and Drought Limits

Andy Burnham's first full week in power joined two arguments that British politics usually keeps apart. He said the country was too centralised and its constitution too improvised; the drought showed that the state was also too slow to adapt to physical conditions changing underneath it. His answer to both was to move power outward. The difficulty is that neither mayors nor Whitehall can devolve away a shortage of money, water or institutional capacity.

Burnham proposed giving English regional mayors a share of locally raised income tax and business rates from 2028, replacing part of their dependence on central grants. He also argued that devolution strengthened the case for a written constitution. Oxford Economics notes that more than 90% of UK tax revenue is collected centrally, so the diagnosis is not cosmetic. Yet the design still leaves the Treasury setting tax rates and deciding how funds are equalised between rich and poor regions. The mayors would gain a revenue stream, not fiscal sovereignty.

That distinction matters because the new government has promised defence spending, cost-of-living relief and stronger public services without creating new borrowing room. The National Institute of Economic and Social Research warned Burnham must either raise taxes or cut spending to pay for the programme. It expects inflation to peak at 3.8% by February 2027 and interest rates to remain unchanged until 2028. NIESR's point is persuasive: devolution can improve where decisions are made, but it cannot make the national balance sheet disappear.

The weather turned that abstract limit into a daily emergency. England recorded 5.6 millimetres of rain through July 30 and Wales 7.9 millimetres, each only 8% of the long-term monthly average. Met Office data showed just 1.9 millimetres fell across the UK between July 8 and 23. Drought covered more than half of England and all of Wales, while a fourth heatwave pushed forecasts to 34C and brought new health alerts across London, the South East, East of England and East Midlands.

The toll is no longer captured by hosepipe bans. The UK Health Security Agency estimated 2,877 heat-associated deaths in England during the May and June heatwaves: 753 from May 24 to 27 and 2,124 from June 21 to 28. That was nearly twice the 2025 summer figure. The National Farmers' Union warned that poor wheat and oat yields, vegetable growers running short of irrigation water and livestock farmers already consuming winter feed could create shortages of some foods. Satellite analysis found vegetation stress from Wales to northwest England, linking water scarcity to farm income and future prices.

Met Office science manager Amy Doherty observed that 2026 had already produced more days above 30C than the whole of 1976, and was the first year to reach 35C in May, June and July. That judgment sharpens Burnham's constitutional wager. A written allocation of powers will matter only if it tells the public who must secure reservoirs, protect vulnerable people and finance adaptation when a record stops being exceptional. His first test is therefore less grand than rewriting Britain and more exacting: proving that power moved out of Westminster arrives with the resources to act.