Putin's Kinzhal and Oreshnik warning, US Tomahawk reversal and an ISW April loss tally narrow Germany's deterrence window

Vladimir Putin said in mid-May that Russia's missiles "have no equal" anywhere in the world and singled out the hypersonic Kinzhal and the medium-range Oreshnik as systems suited to strikes on Europe, the latest stage in a sustained Russian signalling campaign aimed at the West. The remark, reported by the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, sits at the end of a sequence that began in February with former president Dmitry Medvedev threatening nuclear strikes against allies of Ukraine, and continued in April when Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu claimed Finland and the Baltic states were giving Ukraine their airspace for attacks on Russia and invoked his country's "right of self-defence."

The German analysis links the rhetoric to two material trends. The first is the deterioration of Russia's war: the Institute for the Study of War assessed that Putin's army lost more territory than it gained in April and is struggling to replace its dead, while Russia's economy contracted in the first two months of 2026 before the oil-price boom provided partial relief. The second is the expansion of European support to Ukraine, with the EU now extending a 90-billion-euro credit, Hungary no longer functioning as a blocking power, and German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius announcing in Kyiv on Monday that Berlin intends to develop long-range weapons jointly with Ukraine.

Inside that picture, western military planners cited by the FAZ argue that the most effective Russian instrument for intimidating Europe would be a quick, limited attack on a NATO state under a nuclear-threat umbrella designed to deter alliance retaliation. The "Monitor Luftkrieg Ukraine" produced by the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung and the Kyjiwer Gespräche association, the article notes, finds that Russia is constructing a missile reserve even while sustaining daily strikes on Ukraine.

The deterrence equation has been further unsettled by reports that Washington is walking back its promise to station Tomahawk cruise missiles in Germany. Berlin is now looking for a European replacement, and an expert group led by Nico Lange and Moritz Schularick has set out a road map for procuring such a weapon within three to five years. The FAZ warns that this timeline may not match the threat: rather than 2029, the year Germany has pencilled in for full operational deterrence, Putin's window of opportunity is likely opening now, before Europe is ready.

CDU security politician Roderich Kiesewetter has accordingly called on the Bundestag to declare a Spannungsfall — a state of tension under Article 80a of the Basic Law — to accelerate defence preparations. The article notes that the required two-thirds majority is unavailable without either the Left or the AfD, and so the move seems unthinkable, but cites the lifting of the debt brake at the start of 2025 as a precedent for fast-moving German policy reversals once pressure becomes inescapable.

The Saturday assessment follows a string of European warnings in the past week: retired generals' May 9 caution that Russia could attack NATO within five years and target the Baltics and Germany first, the May 11 call for Europe to close the long-range missile gap to deter Moscow, and the May 15 analytical piece arguing the risk of a Russian move against Europe is growing as Putin's other options narrow.