Greens and CDU Explore Coalition Options as SPD Weakens

Germany's Greens and the CDU are signaling a potential rapprochement ahead of the next federal election, driven by the weakening of the SPD and FDP, though significant differences remain on climate and migration policy.

Green co-leader Franziska Brantner praised CDU figures Konrad Adenauer, Helmut Kohl, and Wolfgang Schäuble in an interview with the Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung (F.A.S.), lauding them as champions of Europe. In the same interview, she set aside old Green reservations about nuclear deterrence and called for a European defense union, moving the Greens closer to the Union on security policy.

The overture drew positive responses from the CDU's liberal wing. Andreas Jung, a member of the CDU presidency, said that "many elemental conflict issues have been cleared away" between the parties, adding that on "the big questions of peace and freedom, i.e. in foreign and security policy," the two are "often close together." A CDU board member told the F.A.S. that with the Greens, Germany could become a country "that is defensible against Russia and asserts itself in the confrontation with the USA." Roderich Kiesewetter, the Union parliamentary group's spokesman for crisis prevention, said the Greens are "further than some in the Union" on security policy, noting "no Russia nostalgia and few illusions about China." He added, "We beat up on the Greens for two years, and then they overtook us in Baden-Württemberg. Maybe we did something wrong."

The rapprochement is also driven by electoral arithmetic. Both parties have previously governed with the SPD and FDP, but those parties have weakened significantly. A CDU board member warned that SPD losses in eastern state elections in September could trigger a leadership crisis and coalition collapse. "What happens to the SPD if it no longer gets into parliament in Saxony-Anhalt?" the member asked. "Or if Manuela Schwesig in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania no longer achieves a majority?" The answer, the member said, is that "the shock in the SPD could become so great that it will not bypass the leadership personnel. Then some Social Democrats might ask whether the SPD is not going under in this coalition."

Cem Özdemir, Brantner's predecessor as Green co-leader, recently became head of a green-black coalition in Baden-Württemberg after winning 71% of seats in the state parliament. Green budget committee spokesman Sebastian Schäfer, formerly Özdemir's office manager, said the move changes "strategically quite a bit" for federal politics, noting that unlike his predecessor Winfried Kretschmann, Özdemir was a federal party chairman for nearly ten years. NRW premier Hendrik Wüst (CDU) ranks third in popularity polls, behind Boris Pistorius and Cem Özdemir, fueling speculation about future coalition options. Bavarian premier Markus Söder, long the Greens' sharpest critic in the Union, told Die Zeit that the Greens are "no longer the main opponent."

Despite the signals, significant obstacles remain. Green parliamentary group leader Britta Haßelmann said a coalition with "this" CDU under Friedrich Merz and Jens Spahn "is not possible." A CDU source described the Greens as "a halfway reliable force" but still "full of dangerous world-improvement fantasies." On climate policy, Green MP Claudia Müller, coordinator of her party in the cross-party "Pizza Connection" dialogue group, said the distance has grown because "many in the Union lost sight of climate protection" after the pandemic and the Ukraine war. However, she noted a "slight change" in the Union's view of renewables since the US-Israeli attack on Iran, linking them to "resilience and independence." CSU health politician Emmi Zeulner, a regular at the Pizza Connection, said the Greens are "a competitor and a possible partner like any other democratic party," but pointed to migration policy as a major hurdle, saying the Union wants to let in only people "who are useful to us," not those "who exploit us."