France and Ukraine sign a letter of intent for joint weapons production: a strategic shift from military aid to a military-industrial alliance.

On February 9, 2026, Ukrainian Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov met with visiting French Minister of the Armed Forces Catherine Vautrin in Kyiv and announced a brief but significant message via his Telegram channel: the two sides signed a letter of intent on jointly producing weapons on Ukrainian and French territory. This document marks a fundamental shift in France's support model for Ukraine, transitioning from one-way weapon deliveries and financial assistance to building long-term, systematic defense industrial cooperation. Fedorov stated plainly that this move means we are shifting from simple deliveries to joint production, toward long-term solutions that can systematically strengthen our defense.

Specific Dimensions of Cooperation and Key Equipment List

The letter of intent is not a vague political statement but is accompanied by a detailed list of equipment cooperation, outlining a clear framework for Franco-Ukrainian defense collaboration in the coming years. According to Fedorov's disclosure, the core of the cooperation focuses on several key areas.

First is the reconstruction and strengthening of air power. France has confirmed it will accelerate the delivery of Mirage 2000 fighter jets to Ukraine. These aircraft are not brand new but come from the French Air Force's inventory, having undergone modernization upgrades. In fact, as early as February 6, 2025, France announced the transfer of the first batch of Mirage 2000s, which arrived along with Ukrainian pilots who had received several months of training in France. In March 2025, the Ukrainian Air Force used the Mirage 2000 for the first time in an air defense interception mission, successfully shooting down Russian aerial targets. Longer-term planning involves next-generation fighter jets: in November 2025, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and French President Emmanuel Macron signed a declaration of intent to procure approximately 100 Rafale fighter jets and their associated weapon systems for Ukraine over the next decade. This potential deal involves French company Dassault Aviation and could amount to tens of billions of euros.

Secondly, the large-scale production of precision-guided munitions. Both parties have agreed to continue the production of the AASM Hammer modular air-to-ground missiles at an unprecedented scale. This is a precision-guided bomb kit developed by SAGEM, capable of converting conventional free-fall bombs into GPS/laser composite-guided precision strike weapons, with a range of up to tens of kilometers. The Ukrainian Air Force has extensively used them to strike Russian rear command posts, ammunition depots, and air defense positions. Joint production means Ukraine will secure a stable and large-scale ammunition supply line, alleviating its current heavy reliance on Western ammunition stockpiles.

Third is the systematic construction of air defense and anti-missile capabilities. Ukraine has explicitly expressed its desire to acquire more SAMP/T Aster medium-range air defense and anti-missile systems, as well as Mistral and Crotale short-range air defense missile systems along with their supporting ammunition. The SAMP/T system is one of Europe's most advanced land-based air defense systems, equipped with Aster-30 interceptor missiles capable of countering tactical ballistic missiles. Since its delivery to Ukraine in 2023, it has proven its value in intercepting Russian Iskander missiles and drones. Fedorov specifically mentioned that Ukraine has proposed joint cooperation to improve the SAMP/T system to more effectively address ballistic missile threats, while both sides are collaborating to accelerate the production and supply of Aster missiles.

Fourth is the joint development of long-range strike and electronic warfare capabilities. Both parties discussed providing long-range strike means, particularly regarding the SCALP cruise missile (the French version of the British Storm Shadow), and decided to focus on jointly developing innovative electronic warfare systems. This indicates that the cooperation has progressed from mere hardware transfer to the collaborative research and development of cutting-edge military technology.

From "Blood Transfusion" to "Blood Production": The Deep-Seated Adjustment of France's Strategy Toward Ukraine

The signing of this letter of intent is by no means an isolated upgrade of an arms sales agreement, but rather a clear signal of France and even Europe's strategic restructuring of security policy toward Ukraine. It reflects multiple strategic considerations behind the scenes.

The prolonged nature of the war necessitates a transformation in the support model. By early 2026, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has persisted for a full four years. The initial Western assumption—that emergency military aid would help Ukraine withstand the Russian offensive and force it back to the negotiating table—has proven overly optimistic. The battlefield has descended into a stalemate of attrition, with Ukraine consuming staggering quantities of artillery shells, drones, and air defense missiles daily. Relying solely on NATO countries drawing equipment from their own stockpiles for assistance is not only unsustainable but also severely undermines NATO's own readiness levels. France's push for joint production aims to help Ukraine establish a self-sustaining domestic defense industry, particularly for high-consumption items like ammunition (e.g., AASM bombs) and drones, thereby building a more sustainable and resilient supply line.

France aims to compete for European defense leadership and industrial interests. On the issue of supporting Ukraine, the volatility of U.S. domestic political trends remains an uncertain factor. French President Emmanuel Macron has repeatedly emphasized European strategic autonomy in recent years, advocating that Europe should reduce its dependence on the United States in defense matters. Deep involvement in the reconstruction of Ukraine's defense industry opens up a vast long-term market for the French military-industrial complex (including companies such as Dassault, Thales, MBDA, and Safran). The future procurement plans for Rafale fighter jets and the cooperative improvements to the SAMP/T system mentioned in the letter of intent represent invaluable long-term contracts. This will not only boost the French defense industry and create jobs (for example, Thales Group has announced the creation of 1,000 defense-related positions in France by 2026) but also grant France irreplaceable influence in shaping Ukraine's future military equipment systems, training doctrines, and even strategic culture.

Innovation in cooperation models focuses on asymmetric warfare advantages. During his visit to Kyiv, Minister of Waterland specifically toured Ukraine's combat drone factory and met with the military innovation cluster Brave1. The French Ministry of Defense stated that the letter of intent will allow for joint development and co-production, particularly in the fields of drones and data. A cooperative mechanism named the Brave1 France-Ukraine Initiative will be launched in March 2026, aiming to accelerate joint technology maturation projects that meet the operational needs of both Ukraine and France. Ukraine's combat experience has fostered globally leading capabilities in drone modification, production, and tactical application, especially in FPV suicide drones and maritime unmanned vessels. France is drawn to this rapid innovation capability honed in brutal real-world combat and hopes to combine it with its own advanced avionics, sensors, and systems integration technology. This cooperation model, blending frontline experience with high-end technology, has the potential to give rise to the next generation of disruptive asymmetric warfare equipment.

Anchoring Ukraine within the European security architecture. By deeply integrating the defense industries, France is implementing a strategy that merges economy and security. Aligning Ukraine’s military-industrial production lines with European (primarily French) standards, supply chains, and technological systems means that even if the conflict ends in some form in the future, Ukraine will remain inseparably tied to Europe in terms of security. This creates a solid de facto foundation for Ukraine’s future accession to the European Union and even NATO, while also raising the long-term costs for Russia should it consider launching another offensive in the future.

Potential impact on the Russia-Ukraine battlefield and the European security landscape.

The establishment of the France-Ukraine military-industrial alliance will gradually permeate battlefield tactics, regional power balances, and even the global military-industrial market.

In the short term, the most direct impact is to enhance the sustainability of Ukraine's key weapon systems. The joint production of AASM bombs and Aster missiles can alleviate Ukraine's ammunition shortage in air defense, missile defense, and precision strike firepower. The joint drone research and development project may, within the next 12-18 months, provide the frontline with more targeted and harder-to-jam new drone models, thereby maintaining pressure on Russian forces in the reconnaissance and fire strike chain.

In the medium to long term, this will systematically strengthen Ukraine's defense industrial base. Joint production cannot be entirely conducted within war-torn Ukraine; it will inevitably involve establishing production lines in France or third countries (such as Poland). However, this preserves Ukraine's core technical teams and intellectual property, and sows the seeds for rebuilding a more advanced and modern defense industrial system on its own soil after the war. A Ukraine capable of independently producing critical ammunition, maintaining advanced fighter jets, and developing electronic warfare systems will possess far greater deterrence and war resilience than a country entirely dependent on external aid.

For Russia, this presents a severe strategic challenge. The Kremlin has long hoped to leverage Western aid fatigue and the destruction of Ukraine's industrial base to win this war of attrition. The Franco-Ukrainian joint production intent, particularly the long-term cooperation involved (such as the decade-long Rafale procurement), clearly signals that France and some European nations are prepared to stand with Ukraine for the long haul. This shatters Russia's illusion that the West will eventually abandon Ukraine. Russia may need to reassess the cost-effectiveness of its prolonged attrition strategy and further intensify long-range strikes against Ukraine's defense industrial facilities, including potential overseas cooperative factories, which could lead to further escalation and expansion of the conflict.

At the European level, this move may trigger a chain reaction. Other major military aid providers to Ukraine, such as Germany, the United Kingdom, and Italy, may evaluate whether to adopt similar deep industrial cooperation models to prevent their own defense industries from being marginalized in the future Ukrainian market. This could accelerate the integration and competition within Europe's defense industry and spark policy discussions within the European Union on how to coordinate military aid to Ukraine, avoid redundant construction, and prevent malignant competition. A deeper issue is that the Franco-Ukrainian cooperation serves, to some extent, as an insurance strategy against potential fluctuations in U.S. support, reflecting the profound concerns of major European powers regarding the reliability of American security commitments.

Observing the global arms trade landscape, if the France-Ukraine cooperation model succeeds, it may provide a new paradigm for security cooperation: no longer a simple seller-buyer relationship, but a partnership for joint development and production based on shared security threats, integrated combat experience, and advanced technology. This model could attract other countries facing security threats, possessing some industrial base but lacking top-tier technology, to seek cooperation with Western defense giants.

This letter of intent, signed in Kyiv, may be light in paper weight, but its strategic significance is profound enough to leave a deep imprint on the future map of Europe. It marks a shift in support for Ukraine from a crisis-response emergency transfusion to a long-term security investment spanning decades to come. Its ultimate success depends not only on whether production lines can be smoothly established and technologies effectively integrated, but also on whether Europe can maintain steadfast political will and which side the balance of attrition on the battlefield ultimately tilts toward. In any case, Ukraine's defense destiny and Europe's military-industrial system are now more deeply intertwined than ever.