Doomsday Clock Set to Seconds to Midnight: Global Security Tipping Point Amid Multiple Crises.

On January 23, 2026, at a press conference in Washington, D.C., Daniel Holz, Chair of the Science and Security Board of the Chicago-based Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, announced to the world that the Doomsday Clock, a symbol of threats to human survival, had been set to 85 seconds to midnight. This symbolic device, created in 1947 by scientists involved in the Manhattan Project and once supported by Albert Einstein and Robert Oppenheimer, reached its closest position to midnight—the moment of global catastrophe—in its nearly eighty-year history. This adjustment, based on a comprehensive assessment of nuclear weapon risks, disruptive technologies such as artificial intelligence, biosecurity threats, and the ongoing climate crisis, signifies that humanity is facing a more severe survival environment than at the peak of the Cold War.

The Return of Nuclear Shadows and the Collapse of the Arms Control System

The direct thrust moving the clock's hands forward by 4 seconds comes from the sharp rise in the risk of nuclear war. The current global nuclear posture presents a paradoxical phenomenon: public nuclear deterrence rhetoric tends to be restrained, but the actual modernization of nuclear arsenals and strategic deployments is accelerating. The last major arms control treaty between Russia and the United States, the New START Treaty, is about to expire, and the two sides made no progress on its renewal during their meeting in Alaska. This means that for the first time since the signing of the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty in 1972, there may be no legally binding framework limiting the number of nuclear weapons between the United States and Russia. Both Moscow and Washington are advancing the comprehensive modernization of their nuclear triad forces, including new intercontinental ballistic missiles, strategic bombers, and ballistic missile submarines.

More concerning is the potential lowering of the threshold for nuclear weapon use. Multiple nuclear-armed states have increasingly referenced in their military doctrines the possibility of first use of nuclear weapons in extreme circumstances or when national survival is threatened. On the battlefield in Ukraine, although no actual deployment has occurred, discussions about tactical nuclear weapons have repeatedly appeared in strategic analyses from various sides. In 2025, rumors regarding the potential deployment of nuclear weapons into space further escalated tensions. Such a move would directly violate the 1967 Outer Space Treaty and could trigger a new round of unconstrained arms race.

The nuclear situation in Asia is equally concerning. India and Pakistan continue to expand their nuclear arsenals, while low-intensity conflicts persist between them in the Kashmir region. North Korea conducted multiple tests of its nuclear weapons and missile programs in 2025, with advancements in solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missile technology significantly reducing launch preparation times. China’s nuclear modernization follows a path of moderate expansion, with steady increases in the number of nuclear warheads and delivery systems, altering the strategic balance in the Asia-Pacific region. The core of the nuclear non-proliferation regime, the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, failed to achieve substantive outcomes at its 2025 review conference, revealing deep divisions within the international community on nuclear disarmament.

The climate crisis has shifted from background noise to an existential threat.

If nuclear risk is a sharp and immediate dagger, then the climate crisis is a slowly tightening noose. The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists explicitly stated in its declaration that national responses to the climate emergency have shifted from completely inadequate to destructive. Data from 2025 provides brutal evidence: global atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations reached 150% of pre-industrial levels, the Earth experienced its third hottest year on record, and it marked the third consecutive year in which the global average temperature exceeded the 1.5-degree Celsius warning threshold set by the Paris Agreement. The heatwave in Europe led to an estimated 24,400 heat-related deaths during the summer of 2025, with approximately 68% attributable to temperature increases caused by climate change, according to analysis by Imperial College London and the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine. In some areas, temperatures were abnormally high by 3.6 degrees Celsius.

The cascading effects of climate change are testing the tipping points of the Earth's system. In Indonesia, between 2016 and 2025, 1.4 million hectares of forest were cleared in Aceh, North Sumatra, and West Sumatra alone. The disappearance of these ecosystems, which originally served as natural flood barriers, severely weakened the country's ability to cope with extreme rainfall. In the autumn of 2025, overlapping monsoons triggered severe floods across many parts of Asia, resulting in thousands of deaths and turning roads into muddy rivers. For every 1-degree Celsius increase in atmospheric temperature, its water-holding capacity rises by approximately 7%, directly leading to more intense and concentrated rainfall events.

The political response has been disheartening. At the COP30 climate summit in Belém, Brazil, although over 90 countries, including the United Kingdom, Germany, and the Netherlands, supported the development of a roadmap for nations to independently set timelines for phasing out fossil fuels, and Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva publicly called on the world to start thinking about how to live without relying on fossil fuels, all language regarding fossil fuels was removed from the final agreement in the last hours of the summit. Analysis from the Carbon Major Emissions Database reveals that among the top 20 global emitting entities in 2024, 17 are controlled by countries that blocked the roadmap at COP30, including Saudi Arabia, Russia, China, India, Iraq, Iran, and Qatar. Domestically in the United States, the Trump administration has been accused of essentially declaring war on renewable energy and reasonable climate policies, systematically undermining national efforts to address climate change, and even suspending all U.S. offshore wind project leases.

Disruptive Technology: The Accelerator Out of Control

The rapid development of artificial intelligence and its deep integration with the field of national security constitute a new and difficult-to-quantify dimension of risk. The creators of the Doomsday Clock specifically warn of AI's potentially catastrophic impacts in three areas: integration into military systems (especially nuclear command and control), misuse in creating biological threats, and the global amplification of disinformation and erosion of social cohesion. Nobel Peace Prize laureate and CEO of the Philippine news organization Rappler, Maria Ressa, sharply noted in the bulletin's discussion: The technologies that dominate our lives are triggering an information apocalypse. From social media to generative AI, no technology is anchored in facts. These platforms are built on predatory and exploitative models, turning our attention into commodities and our anger into their business models. They are not connecting us; they are dividing us.

This fragmentation directly erodes the foundation of international cooperation. When algorithms push content based on maximizing engagement, extreme and opposing viewpoints are continuously amplified, making it exceptionally difficult to reach consensus on common threats both within societies and among nations. The United Kingdom offers a specific case regarding the impact of artificial intelligence on employment: a study by Morgan Stanley found that, compared to other major economies such as Japan, the United States, Germany, and Australia, the UK is the most affected by AI. Over the past 12 months, AI has led to an 8% reduction in job positions within UK enterprises. Severe turbulence in economic structures may further intensify social tensions and political instability.

In the field of biotechnology, the emergence of so-called mirror life—synthetic life forms corresponding to natural ones—presents new challenges to biosafety. These technologies could be used for beneficial purposes, such as medical treatment or environmental remediation, but they also risk releasing uncontrollable pathogens due to accidents or malicious use. The widespread adoption of gene-editing tools like CRISPR has made the creation or modification of pathogens technically more feasible, while global biosafety regulatory frameworks lag far behind the pace of scientific advancement.

Geopolitical Fragmentation and Leadership Vacuum.

All technological and environmental threats ultimately ferment within a deteriorating geopolitical landscape. Daniel Holz, Chair of the Bulletin's Science and Security Board, described the current situation as the world splitting into "us versus them" camps, noting that the rise of nationalist authoritarian regimes globally is a frightening development. This "us versus them" mindset runs counter to the international trust and cooperation essential for addressing existential threats such as nuclear war and climate change.

The war in Ukraine has entered its fourth year, a conflict that has not only caused immense humanitarian disasters but also completely shattered the remaining security trust between Russia and the West. The situation in the Middle East remains turbulent, with the risk of proxy conflicts between regional powers and external forces remaining high. In the Asia-Pacific, major power competition is intensifying, with maritime disputes, technological decoupling, and escalating military deployments forming a complex risk matrix. Any miscalculation or accidental conflict in these hotspots could rapidly escalate and draw nuclear-armed nations into the fray.

The absence of leadership is a recurring theme emphasized in the communique. The report notes that hard-won global consensus is unraveling, accelerating winner-take-all great power competition and undermining international cooperation crucial for mitigating existential risks such as nuclear war, climate change, misuse of biotechnology, potential threats from artificial intelligence, and other apocalyptic dangers. Too many leaders have grown complacent and indifferent, with their rhetoric and policies often exacerbating rather than alleviating these existential threats. Political polarization within the United States has made it difficult to maintain continuity and predictability in long-term national security and climate policies, thereby weakening America's capacity to exercise constructive leadership in global affairs.

The setting of the clock itself reflects a paradox: it attempts to summarize multiple heterogeneous complex threats with a unified, simplified metric, which may make it difficult for the public and policymakers to understand exactly in which direction to take action. A politician can claim to be responding to the clock's warning by passing a climate bill, while at the same time their government is expanding its nuclear arsenal. This ambiguity in the message partially undermines the clock's effectiveness as a call to action.

However, the essence of the Doomsday Clock is not prediction, but diagnosis. It is a mirror reflecting the path shaped by humanity's collective choices. The reading of 85 seconds is a severe warning, yet it also carries the urgency for action. As the Bulletin emphasizes, the clock's hands have moved back before—in 1991, after the end of the Cold War, it receded to 17 minutes before midnight—and it can certainly move back again in the future. This requires leaders of major powers such as the United States, Russia, and China to reassume responsibility, restart serious dialogues on nuclear arms control, establish guardrails on issues like the military application of artificial intelligence, and sincerely fulfill climate commitments. It further demands the awakening and sustained pressure of global civil society, urging leaders to transcend short-term political calculations and make wise choices for the shared survival prospects of humanity. Time is running out, but the hands have not yet reached midnight.